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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:
Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
EUR/USD Strategy: Link the long side while over 1.0760.
Price & Time Analysis: FXCM US DOLLAR INDEX
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
US DOLLAR Strategy: Like the short side while below 12,015 (closing basis).
Focus Chart of the Day: S&P 500
April is shaping up to be an interesting period for the S&P 500. A host of important long-term cyclical relationships should influence throughout April, but the first few days and last few days of the month look to be especially important. The first real test for the market will come around the end of this week as a perfect 3,141 “pi cycle” trading day count from the October 2002 low in the index should influence the market. Interestingly this relationship will coincide with the release of US March payrolls data. What this will mean for the index is the tricky part as it is stuck in a pretty clear range at the moment. Our general modus operandi around these key cyclical periods or windows is to look to fade the prevailing trend. There isn’t really one at the moment to fade, though a break of 2040 or a push back over 2119 would start to get us looking for a potential reversal.
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— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February: Personal income increased $58.6 billion, or 0.4 percent … in February, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE)increased $11.8 billion…
The nation’s largest health insurer, UnitedHealth, will muscle up in its fight against rising specialty drug costs by spending more… more »
Trevor Noah, a 31-year-old comedian from South Africa, will replace Jon Stewart as the host of â€œThe Daily Show.â€
Video by Comedy Central on Publish Date March 30, 2015. Photo by Byron Keulemans.
In December, Trevor Noah, a 31-year-old comedian, made his debut as an on-air contributor on â€œThe Daily Show With Jon Stewart,â€ offering his outsiderâ€™s perspective, as a biracial South African, on the United States.
â€œI never thought Iâ€™d be more afraid of police in America than in South Africa,â€ he said with a smile. â€œIt kind of makes me a little nostalgic for the old days, back home.â€
Now, after only three appearances on that Comedy Central show, Mr. Noah has gotten a huge and unexpected promotion. On Monday, Comedy Central will announce that Mr. Noah has been chosen as the new host of â€œThe Daily Show,â€ succeeding Mr. Stewart after he steps down later this year.
The networkâ€™s selection of Mr. Noah comes less than two months after Mr. Stewart, 52, revealed on Feb. 10 that he was leaving â€œThe Daily Showâ€ after a highly successful 16-year run that transformed the show into authoritative, satirical comedy on current events. (An exact timetable for Mr. Stewartâ€™s departure has not been decided, Comedy Central said.)
Trevor Noah Credit Byron Keulemans
Mr. Noah, who spoke by phone from Dubai, where he is on a leg of a comedy tour, said he had been given a great opportunity, as well as a significant challenge.
â€œYou donâ€™t believe it for the first few hours,â€ Mr. Noah said of learning about his new job. â€œYou need a stiff drink, and then unfortunately youâ€™re in a place where you canâ€™t really get alcohol.â€
The appointment of Mr. Noah, a newcomer to American television, promises to add youthful vitality and international perspective to â€œThe Daily Show.â€ It puts a nonwhite performer at the head of this flagship Comedy Central franchise, and one who comes with Mr. Stewartâ€™s endorsement.
â€œIâ€™m thrilled for the show and for Trevor,â€ Mr. Stewart said in a statement. â€œHeâ€™s a tremendous comic and talent that weâ€™ve loved working with.â€ Mr. Stewart added that he â€œmay rejoin as a correspondent just to be a part of it!!!â€
But the decision also invites questions about Mr. Noahâ€™s experience and visibility (or lack thereof), and why the network did not choose a woman to crack the all-male club of late-night television hosts.
Michele Ganeless, the Comedy Central president, said in an interview: â€œWe talked to women. We talked to men. We found in Trevor the best person for the job.â€
Ms. Ganeless added: â€œYou donâ€™t hope to find the next Jon Stewart â€“ there is no next Jon Stewart. So, our goal was to find someone who brings something really exciting and new and different.â€
In his standup routines, Mr. Noah comes across as a self-assured polyglot with an international perspective.
As he joked in a 2013 comedy set on â€œLate Show With David Letterman,â€ Mr. Noah said that he did not like being introduced as a comedian from Africa, as if he represented the entire continent. â€œThey make it sound like a guy in leopard skinâ€™s going to come running on the stage,â€ he said.
Mr. Noah said in his phone interview, â€œI didnâ€™t live a normal life â€“ I grew up in a country that wasnâ€™t normal.â€
He grew up in Soweto, the son of a black Xhosa mother and a white Swiss father, whose union was illegal during the apartheid era. â€œMy mother had to be very clandestine about who my father was,â€ Mr. Noah said. â€œHe couldnâ€™t be on my birth certificate.â€
By the time he started performing stand-up in his 20s, Mr. Noah said he had long been taught that â€œspeaking freely about anything, as a person of color, was considered treason.â€
His globetrotting spirit (and ability to speak six languages) set him apart in comedy, and he performed widely in the United States between 2010 and 2012, eventually coming to Mr. Stewartâ€™s attention about two years ago.
When Mr. Stewart announced his plans to depart â€œThe Daily Show,â€ Ms. Ganeless said that Comedy Central quickly drew up â€œa shortlistâ€ of possible successors â€œand Trevor checked off every box on that list and then some.â€
â€œHe brings such a unique worldview and a deep understanding of human nature, which makes his comedy so insightful,â€ she added. â€œHeâ€™s truly a student of the world.â€
Mr. Noah gave no formal auditions for the job, outside of his performances on â€œThe Daily Showâ€ and elsewhere.
Ms. Ganeless said the decision was made after she â€œhuddledâ€ with Doug Herzog, the president of Viacomâ€™s entertainment group, and Kent Alterman, the Comedy Central president of content development and original programming, while Mr. Stewart acted as â€œour consigliere through the whole process.â€
During this time, fan support emerged for other longtime â€œDaily Showâ€ cast members, including Samantha Bee, who joined in 2003 and is leaving to create a comedy news show for TBS.
A grassroots campaign also coalesced around Jessica Williams, who has appeared on â€œThe Daily Showâ€ since 2012. However, she wrote on her Twitter account, â€œThank you but I am extremely under-qualified for the job!â€
Ms. Ganeless said she would not comment â€œon any specific names or conversationsâ€ that came up during the search.
She said that Comedy Centralâ€™s commitment to â€œThe Nightly Show,â€ a newly introduced series that follows â€œThe Daily Showâ€ with Larry Wilmore as host, â€œdoes not waver,â€ and that Mr. Stewart remains a producer of that program.
Ms. Ganeless said there had not been â€œany specific conversationsâ€ about what personnel would work with Mr. Noah on â€œThe Daily Show,â€ but added that â€œhe respects and admires the team there that has built the institution.â€
Mr. Noah said he expected to be criticized and second-guessed long before his first episode as host. â€œWe live in a world where some people still say BeyoncÃ© canâ€™t sing,â€ he said. â€œClearly Iâ€™m not immune to that.â€
But in his conversations with Mr. Stewart, Mr. Noah said that he had found a kindred spirit in a fellow comedian who was not much further along when he came to â€œThe Daily Show.â€
â€œHe told me, â€˜I was where you were when I took over the show,â€™ â€ Mr. Noah said. â€œ â€˜Nobody knew me. I was just starting out, finding my voice, and thatâ€™s when I was handed this seat.â€™ â€
â€œNow,â€ Mr. Noah added, â€œitâ€™s my turn to steer the ship.â€
The Daily Show â€“ Spot the Africa with Trevor Noah Video by Comedy Central
JetBlue says a computer outage that has caused delays for its passengers has been resolved.
Overnight Media Digest
* BabyFirstTV, which is owned by BFTV LLC, is making its way into more U.S. homes after cutting deals with pay-TV distributors including Time Warner Cable and is aiming its programming at children as young as six months. (http://on.wsj.com/1IIL7an)
* Ford and General Motors, two biggest U.S. auto makers will unveil new passenger cars at the New York International Auto Show later this week. (http://on.wsj.com/1IILmlQ)
* Facebook Inc is hiring in Hong Kong and has tapped a second local partner to reach advertisers and is waging a charm campaign to draw more business from Chinese companies, even though Chinese users can’t access its service. (http://on.wsj.com/1IILrpu)
* Reynolds American Inc and Lorillard Inc. are expected to meet this week with members of the Federal Trade Commission ahead of a final decision by the agency on whether to allow the companies to merge, according to people familiar with the matter. (http://on.wsj.com/1IILxgS)
* EIG Global Energy Partners agreed to invest $1 billion in Breitburn Energy Partners LP, a publicly traded oil and gas exploration and production company, as energy producers turn to alternative capital sources in an effort to bolster their balance sheets amid slumping oil prices. (http://on.wsj.com/1IILB05)
Britain’s opposition Labour Party leader Ed Miliband will try to align the party on Monday with a sceptical business community, urging that only he can avert the “clear and present danger” posed to the economy by a Conservative referendum on Europe.
British Prime Minister David Cameron will be driven to Buckingham Palace on Monday to notify Queen Elizabeth of the dissolution of parliament, as he seeks to deploy the grandeur of his office to reboot a stumbling start to the general election campaign.
Fewer migrants have come to the UK looking for work during the current parliament’s tenure than under Labour’s final term in office, and they are ever more highly skilled, new research by the Oxford-based Migration Observatory, commissioned by the Financial Times shows.
British investment company Alliance Trust has come under fresh attack from Tim Ingram, a former director who sat on the board for two years until 2012, who criticised the company’s “dismal” performance and pay of its chief executive Katherine Garrett-Cox.
* Some of the most aggressive contemporary purveyors of information, journalistic and otherwise, are betting on feature-length motion pictures. In the last several years, BuzzFeed Media, Vice Media, CNN, Condé Nast and Newsweek have all built units or alliances aimed in part at creating long-form narrative or documentary films that will be seen in theaters. (http://nyti.ms/1IIJDNj)
* Johanna Basford’s intricately hand-drawn coloring book “Secret Garden”, which released in the spring of 2013, has sold more than 1.4 million copies in 22 languages. It shot to the top of Amazon’s best-seller list this month, overtaking books by authors like Harper Lee, Anthony Doerr and Paula Hawkins. (http://nyti.ms/1GFHrqL)
* Ford Motor Co will unveil a new version of its full-size Continental sedan this week at the New York International Auto Show, signifying the return of a car that epitomized elegance in the 1960s before it faded into obscurity and went out of production in 2002. (http://nyti.ms/1Dbfgif)
* GNC Holdings Inc, United States’ largest specialty retailer of dietary supplements, has agreed to institute sweeping new testing procedures that far exceed quality controls mandated under federal law. (http://nyti.ms/1G79v5P)
* The extraordinary circumstances that led to last week’s crash of the Germanwings jet, where a pilot seemingly brought down an airplane, killing everyone aboard, means that the airline’s insurers could end up paying hundreds of millions of dollars to the victims’ families, according to legal experts. (http://nyti.ms/1CoaY5b)
THE GLOBE AND MAIL
** Canada’s municipalities are calling for the federal budget to include at least C$1 billion ($791.2 million) a year in new cash for public transit, insisting the projects will boost economic growth and reduce commute times. The specific request to be announced by the Federation of Canadian Municipalities comes as urban transit issues are shaping up to be a key focus for the 2015 federal election. (http://bit.ly/1EUcieL)
** The closing of two General Motors Co assembly plants in Oshawa, Ontario, would wipe out about 30,000 jobs, slice more than C$5 billion out of Ontario’s gross domestic product and cost the federal and Ontario governments C$1-billion in lost revenue. (http://bit.ly/1NxZ2D1)
** After taking 26 months to launch its first stores in Canada, U.S. discounter Target Corp is now looking at shutting all 133 of them in just three months, a month less than originally planned. Target Canada plans to speed its store closings by one month and turn off the lights by mid-April, a court filing says. (http://bit.ly/1Nkmwvc)
** Best Buy Co Inc announced it is shutting down dozens of Future Shop stores across Canada, effective immediately, resulting in about 1,500 job losses. Of 131 Future Shop locations across the country, 66 will be shuttered for good and the remaining 65 will be turned into Best Buy outlets. (http://bit.ly/19nTJH9)
** Postmedia Network Canada Corp’s apparent plans to sell the 35 properties it is acquiring from Quebecor Media Inc won’t come to fruition overnight, but there is a market for the portfolio which consists mostly of real estate in small towns, say industry analysts. A single buyer for the entire portfolio seems unlikely, said John Redvers, acting national manager of Royal LePage Commercial. (http://bit.ly/1Dd6Ln0)
** Oil inventories at key Alberta storage hubs of Edmonton and Hardisty breached 10 million barrels in each location last week, according to data from global energy consultancy Genscape, suggesting Canadian oil prices may trend even lower in the near future. (http://bit.ly/1Ny4gyD)
CHINA SECURITIES JOURNAL
- China’s monetary policies are unconventional during the “new normal” period, which means liquidity is ample but the government has to continue monetary easing as the country faces pressure to achieve its goal of 7 percent GDP growth in the first quarter, said Chen Yulu, member of the monetary policy committee of People’s Bank of China.
- China’s medium and large-scale steel companies continued to post losses in the first quarter of this year, which indicates increasing pressures due to the slowdown in the economy.
- A total of 1,029 listed companies released their annual financial results. Net profit increased by 1.74 trillion yuan ($279.99 billion) or 5.7 percent in 2014, data from Wind Information, a domestic financial data provider, showed.
SHANGHAI SECURITIES NEWS
- China Pacific Insurance Group’s net profit grew 19.3 percent in 2014, its annual report showed on Monday.
- China’s over-the-counter Beijing equity board reached transaction volumes of over 6.5 billion yuan last week, another all time high, according to eastmoney.com’s CHOICE data service.
- The Shanghai bond clearing house will begin implementing centralized clearing to the interbank market on Monday, in accordance with a decision announced in February.
- China will need about 10,000 new light aircraft within the next five years to accommodate the general aviation expansion, said Pan Liwu, executive vice-president of AVIC International Holding Corp, a state-controlled aviation firm.
UK TREASURY TAKES AIM AT ‘SLOPPY’ ONS DATA
The Treasury has criticised the British government’s own statisticians for a catalogue of sloppiness, including mistakes and slow responses with data. (http://thetim.es/19jTHjy)
ALLIANCE TRUST COMES UNDER FIRE CLOSER TO HOME
Alliance Trust, the investment trust under attack by an American hedge fund, has come under fire on a second front. Tim Ingram, a former non-executive director who claims that he was eased out of the embattled investment trust, has written to shareholders, 60,000 of whom are private investors, arguing that Alliance had lagged the average return in its sector over five years. (http://thetim.es/19jUYXI)
EU REFERENDUM WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH BUSINESS, ED MILIBAND WARNS
Britain’s opposition Labour Party leader Ed Miliband will attempt to win over a reluctant business community on Monday by warning that an EU referendum proposed by David Cameron would trigger a bitter two-year campaign in which a re-elected Tory party would tear itself apart over whether the UK should remain in Europe. (http://bit.ly/1BICN5I)
PAY FREEZES AND CUTS CONTRADICT CLAIMS BY GEORGE OSBORNE
More than 40 percent of Britain’s recession-scarred workers expect to receive a pay freeze or a cut to their wages this year despite Britain’s Finance Minister George Osborne’s claim to have restored living standards, ensuring they would “grow strongly every year for the rest of the decade”. (http://bit.ly/1HebaFe)
NATIONWIDE DEFIES BANKS’ BRANCH CLOSURES WITH MAJOR CASH INJECTION
Britain’s biggest building society is planning a major investment in its branches, despite its banking rivals close hundreds of high-street locations. Nationwide plans to spend around 300 million pounds ($446.88 million) on its branch network over the next five years, it is understood, in a ringing endorsement of its bricks and mortar operation. (http://bit.ly/1G6t3av)
NETWORK RAIL TO BE BROKEN UP OR SOLD OFF UNDER RESTRUCTURING
The Government is thought to be exploring restructuring options over the future of Network Rail, fuelling speculation that the state-owned company could be broken up or sold. (http://bit.ly/1HeaTSZ)
MILIBAND’S NHS PLEDGE AT CAMPAIGN LAUNCH
Labour leader Ed Miliband has launched his party’s General Election campaign with a promise to safeguard the future of the National Health Service. (http://bit.ly/1D9H5rb)
GULF KEYSTONE INVESTORS PUSH TO REMOVE MURRAY
Investors in a controversial London-listed oil company are demanding that it begins hunting a successor to its chairman in return for backing a 30 million pounds fundraising. (http://bit.ly/1BBDaOt)
SPORTS DIRECT: TRIBUNAL THREAT OVER ‘DODGY’ USC REDUNDANCIES
Sports Direct ignored repeated attempts by administrators to consult with staff who lost their jobs in the “dodgy” collapse of its fashion brand USC, and could potentially face employment tribunals for not giving workers enough notice. (http://ind.pn/1OCaZc8)
GOOGLE FACED WITH PRIVACY LAWSUITS FOR SNOOPING ON APPLE USERS WITHOUT CONSENT
Google Inc could face a wave of privacy lawsuits in the UK after three people won the right to sue the search giant for snooping on their web browsing. (http://ind.pn/1En0lTI)
Fly on The Wall Pre-Market Buzz
Domestic economic reports scheduled for today include:
Personal income for February at 8:30–consensus up 0.3%
Consumer spending for February at 8:30–consensus up 0.2%
Pending home sales index for February at 10:00–consensus up 0.4%
Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index for March at 10:30–consensus -9.0
Analog Devices (ADI) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays
BHP Billiton (BHP) upgraded to Outperformer from Sector Performer at CIBC
Continental Resources (CLR) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Societe Generale
FirstEnergy (FE) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays
Gibraltar Industries (ROCK) upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc
ITG (ITG) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Evercore ISI
Madison Square Garden (MSG) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Topeka
Madison Square Garden (MSG) upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
Nike (NKE) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at RW Baird
Restoration Hardware (RH) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman
Western Union (WU) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Evercore ISI
Wolverine World Wide (WWW) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at RW Baird
Altera (ALTR) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley
Genesco (GCO) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at RW Baird
LINN Energy (LINE) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS
LinnCo (LNCO) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS
MTN Group (MTNOY) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman
Melco Crown (MPEL) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
S&T Bancorp (STBA) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James
Spark Energy (SPKE) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel
WM Morrison (MRWSY) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman
World Point Terminals (WPT) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel
Xilinx (XLNX) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley
Xilinx (XLNX) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at MKM Partners
Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO) initiated with a Buy at Societe Generale
Dominion Midstream (DM) initiated with a Market Perform at Wells Fargo
Hilltop Holdings (HTH) initiated with an Outperform at Macquarie
Hortonworks (HDP) initiated with an Equal Weight at Barclays
InfraREIT (HIFR) initiated with a Buy at Evercore ISI
LendingClub (LC) initiated with a Sector Perform at Pacific Crest
On Deck Capital (ONDK) initiated with an Outperform at Pacific Crest
Stonegate Bank (SGBK) initiated with a Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette
Summit Therapeutics (smmt) initiated with a Buy at Needham
TiVo (TIVO) initiated with an Outperform at Macquarie
Microsoft (MSFT), Yahoo (YHOO) extend search partnership discussions for 30 days
UnitedHealth’s (UNH) OptumRX to acquire Catamaran (CTRX) for $61.50 per share in cash
Horizon Pharma (HZNP) to acquire Hyperion Therapeutics (HPTX) for $46.00 per share
Best Buy Canada (BBY) announced consolidation of Future Shop and Best Buy stores
BreitBurn Energy (BBEP) announced $1B strategic investment by EIG, said to reduce common distribution to 50c per unit on an annualized basis
GSK (GSK) reached agreement with U.K. on meningitis B vaccine
Realty Income (O) to replace Windstream (WIN) in S&P 500 as of 4/6 close
Companies that beat consensus earnings expectations last night and today include:
Fifth Street Asset (FSAM)
Companies that missed consensus earnings expectations include:
Cypress Energy (CELP)
China Nepstar (NPD) reports Q4 EPS 6c, one estimate (1c)
Best Buy (BBY) sees FY16 EPS lower by 10c-20c due to Canada consolidation
Earthstone Energy (ESTE) reports Q4 EPS ($3.83) vs. ($1.41) in Q413
Intel (INTC) in talks to buy Altera (ALTR), WSJ reports
If Intel (INTC) buys Altera (ALTR), Xilinx (XLNX) may become a takeover target, Re/code reports
BNY Mellon (BK) denies initiating CEO search, FT reports
Yahoo’s (YHOO) Mayer may look to ‘shuffle’ executive suite, NY Post reports
Reynolds American (RAI), Lorillard (LO) to meet with FTC this week, WSJ reports
HD Supply (HDS) could gain over 30%, Barron’s says
J.M. Smucker (SJM) could rise 25%, Barron’s says
Investors should use caution with Urban Outfitters (URBN), Barron’s says
Shake Shack (SHAK) looks overvalued, Barron’s says
Aldeyra (ALDX) files to sell 2.23M shares of common stock for holders
BlackRock Capital Investment Corp. (BKCC) files $1.5B mixed securities shelf
Cara Therapeutics (CARA) files $150M mixed securities shelf
Crown Castle (CCI) files automatic mixed securities shelf
Dara BioSciences (DARA) files $30M mixed securities shelf
MPLX (MPLX) files to sell $1.5B of common units representing limited partners
Mylan (MYL) files to sell 35M shares of stock for Abbott subsidiaries
Your rating: None
TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.
Options play: Big upcoming week for corn, beans?
With another USDA report around the corner could the impact on grains prices be as big as some anticipate?
Fundamentally, on Tuesday we have a quarterly grain stocks report that could have a huge impact on prices. Specifically, it’s called National Agricultural Statistics Service(NASS) report from the USDA and it will let us know where the USDA thinks we stand on supplies of grains. The description of the report acordding to the USDA is “a full-text report, issued four times yearly, contains stocks of all wheat, durum wheat, corn, sorghum, oats, barley, soybeans, flaxseed, canola, rapeseed, rye, sunflower, safflower, mustard seed, by States and U.S. and by position (on-farm or off-farm storage); includes number and capacity of off-farm storage facilities and capacity of on-farm storage facilities. Continues Stocks of Grains. In addition, that same NASS/USDA will also have a report called the Prospective Planting report. The description of this report is “This ASCII text file reports the expected plantings as of March 1 for corn, all wheat, winter wheat, durum wheat, other spring wheat, oats, barley, flaxseed, cotton, rice by length of grain classes, all sorghum, sweet potatoes, dry edible beans, soybeans, sunflower, peanuts, and sugarbeets; acreage for harvest of oats, hay, and tobacco”.
When Does Weather Matter: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=6&ap=mmckinne
These two reports will probably be more bearish than what analyst are thinking in my view for corn and beans. According to Hightower on the corn, “The IGC estimated that world corn production would come in at 941 million tonnes in 2015, down 49 million tonnes from last year, mostly due to lower yields…..Analysts see March 1st stocks at 7.609 billion bushels (range 7.459-7.800) from 7.008 billion last year”.
In terms of soybeans Hightower reports, “Analysts see March 1st stocks at 1.346 billion bushels (range of 1.250-1.413 billion) which would be up from 994 million last year. Planted acreage is estimated at 85.92 million with a range of 83.1-88.0 million and against 83.701 million in 2014. If 88 million acres are planted, ending stocks should come in around a record high of 664 million bushels”. Again I believe we will see an even more bearish report than what is expected by the a fore mentioned predictions.
Options on Beans for People Who Don’t Know Beans About Options: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=8&ap=mmckinne
Technically, I have added my favorite technical indicators to this charts below. They are the 9 (red line), 20 (green line), and the 50 (blue line) day Simple Moving Averages or SMA’s. I have also added Bollinger Bands or BB’s (light blue shaded area) and Candlesticks (the red and green bars with the candle stick wicks and on these daily charts each bar represents one day of trading). These few technical indicators can tell me many, many important characteristics about the market at a quick glance so I have them saved on my charts in MARKETHEAD, so they can populate on any chart I choose at the click of a mouse.
On the soybean chart below, I have the market in what I refer to has a downward trend. This is simply because the market is trading below the 20 day SMA (green line) and using the indicator as resistance. Also 3 out of 5 of my indicators are pointing lower on fairly sharp angles. The top line of the Bollinger Bands, the 20 day SMA, and the 50 day SMA (blue line) are all bearish.
I think this downward trend could continue in the coming days and weeks and could possibly even become a term I have coined called a “PRINCIPAL-TREND” down. This would be the strongest possible trend. However, in order for that to take place I would need the 9 day SMA on this chart point down instead of sideways and the market would have to then move lower below the 9 day SMA and use it has resistance instead of the 20 day SMA it’s using now for resistance. This may occur on the heels of these reports this week.
I figured this out by going back and forth from a daily to a weekly chart and applying these indicators to the charts at the click of a mouse which I found at: http://www.markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=mmckinne , which is a web application that we have developed for our clients called MARKETHEAD where I get about 80-85% of all my research from. That means I get both technical and fundamental research from this web app and I am a veteran series 3 Broker of 15 years. So if I’m using it then maybe my readers should check it out. Yes?
May daily soybean chart
Technically, on the chart below my indicators are showing a classic sideways, consolidation trend. The market is trading in a range between roughly $4/bushel and $3.75/bushel. This I have determine quite simply by looking at the top and lines of the Bollinger Bands. The top line being the upper end of the range and the bottom line the lower end. On the heels of these upcoming reports this market could very well break out of the range and head lower.
May daily corn chart
For exact details on strategies, months, expiration dates, strike prices, and number of positions feel free to contact me at 312-277-0115 or email@example.com .
It is also important to note that I am not married to a market, but to trends. I believe that we are on the verge of lots of upcoming trends. So get in touch with me and I’ll show you what could be right around the corner in terms of trending markets and how to trade them. There could be upcoming trends in the grains, energies, indices, financials, precious metals, softs and more.
25 Option Strategies: http://www.zaner.com/offers/?page=11&ap=mmckinne
FREE QUOTE- “If you wait to do everything until you’re sure it’s right, you’ll probably never do much of anything .” -Win Borden
FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX TRADING IS SPECULATIVE IN NATURE AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ARE A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO DERIVATIVES TRANSACTIONS. ALL KNOWN NEWS AND EVENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN FACTORED INTO THE PRICE OF THE UNDERLYING DERIVATIVES DISCUSSED. FROM TIME TO TIME PERSONS AFFILIATED WITH ZANER, OR ITS ASSOCIATED COMPANIES, MAY HAVE POSITIONS IN RECOMMENDED AND OTHER DERIVATIVES.
FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERDLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION’S STICKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE’S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT OPTIONS PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A LITTLE.
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Elon Musk has a simple, fairly obvious solution for curing traffic congestion in cities: “More tunnels.”
The way Musk sees it, we have dense cities with big buildings that extend into the sky taking full advantage of our three dimensional world. But, when it comes to transportation, we are stuck in two dimensions. We only drive at the surface level. He thinks we should dig underground to transport ourselves. We should be taking advantage of a third dimension, so to speak.
Musk talked about this during an interview with Neil DeGrasse Tyson on his radio show, StarTalk. DeGrasse Tyson asked Musk about flying cars.
Musk thinks flying cars are problematic. He said they increase the chance of something falling on your head. He said they would be loud. He said they would have to deal with bad weather. And, “of course,” they would have to be auto-piloted.
“Essentially with a flying car you’re talking about 3D,” said Musk. “There’s a fundamental flaw with cities where you’ve got dense office buildings and duplexes and they’re operating on three dimensions, but then you go to the street and you’re two dimensional.”
DeGrasse pointed out that New York City has the Subway which is based on underground tunnels that are built atop each other adding another dimension for transportation.
“If you were to extrapolate that to cars, and have more car tunnels, then you would alleviate congestion completely. You would not need a flying car in that case,” says Musk. “And it would always work, even if the weather is bad. It would never ice up and it would never fall on your head.”
While it seems far fetched to think about a massive project like digging tunnels in big cities, it seems much more feasible than flying cars.
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The continuously amassing hype behind Microsoft Corp’s (NASDAQ:MSFT) Windows 10 has yet another reason to keep growing. The highly anticipated OS, both for mobile and PC, is expected to compensate consumers for the Redmond, Washington based company’s market failure, Windows 8. Windows 10 is expected to be a fluid, cross-platform experience, allowing universal functionality for […]
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM15 +0.51%) this morning are up +0.46% and European stocks are up +1.20% on the prospects for China to expand its stimulus measures after China’s central bank said the government can do more to support growth. Another positive for European stocks was the larger-than-expected increase in Eurozone Mar economic confidence to the highest in 3-1/2 years. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +0.65%, Hong Kong +1.51%, China +2.93%, Taiwan +0.19%, Australia -1.25%, Singapore +0.12%, South Korea +0.22%, India +1.88%. China’s Shanghai Index surged nearly 3% to a 7-year high after the head of the PBOC, Zhou Xiaochuan, said that China’s growth rate has tumbled “a bit” too much, and that policy makers have room to act with both interest rates and “quantitative” measures, which bolstered speculation that China will boost stimulus measures. Commodity prices are mostly lower. May crude oil (CLK15 -1.35%) is down -2.07% on speculation a potential nuclear deal between Iran and Western nations may end sanctions against Iran and lead to increased Iranian crude exports that may exacerbate a global supply glut. May gasoline (RBK15 -0.84%) is down -1.24%. Apr gold (GCJ15 -1.38%) is down -1.20%. May copper (HGK15 +0.31%) is up +0.33%. Agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.56%) is up +0.53%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.47%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.51%. Jun T-note prices (ZNM15 -0.07%) are down -2.5 ticks.
The Eurozone Mar business climate indicator rose +0.14 to 0.23, stronger than expectations of +0.11 to 0.18 and matched the November 2014 reading as the highest in 9 months. Mar economic confidence rose +1.6 to 103.9, stronger than expectations of +0.9 to 103.0 and the highest in 3-1/2 years.
UK Feb mortgage approvals rose 61,800, stronger than expectations of 61,500 and the most in 6 months.
UK Feb net consumer credit rose +0.7 billion pounds, less than expectations of +0.9 billion pounds.
Japan Feb industrial production fell -3.4% m/m and -2.6% y/y, weaker than expectations of -1.9% m/m and -0.6% y/y.
Key news today includes (1) today’s deadline for Greece to submit a list of sufficent reforms to Eurozone finance ministers to qualify for frozen bailout money and avoid a new default, (2) oil prices ahead of tomorrow’s deadline for a political agreement on the Iran nuclear talks, (3) today’s Feb personal income report (expected +0.3%) and spending report (expected +0.2%), (4) today’s Feb PCE deflator report (expected +0.3% y/y vs +0.2% in Jan) and Feb core PCE deflator report (expected unchanged from Jan at +1.3%), (4) today’s Feb pending home sales report (expected +0.4% m/m), (5) today’s Mar Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index (expected +2.2 to -9.0), and (6) Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer’s keynote address at the Atlanta Fed’s conference on “Central Banking in the Shadows: Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Post Crisis.”
There is one of the Russell 1000 companies that reports earnings today: American Realty Capital Properties (consensus $0.23).
There are no U.S. IPOs that are scheduled to price or begin trading today.
Equity conferences this week include: Bank of America Merrill Lynch New York Auto Summit on Wed, DUG Bakken and Niobrara Unconventional Oil Conference on Wed, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Utilities Conference on Wed, New York Interational Auto Show-Press Days on Wed, and Goldman Sachs Biosimilars Conference on Thu.
Nike (NKE +0.55%) was upgraded to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Neutral’ at RW Baird.
Genesco (GCO +0.49%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Outperform’ at RW Baird
BHP Billiton (BHP -1.98%) was upgraded to ‘Outperformer’ from ‘Sector Performer’ at CIBC.
Western Union (WU +1.60%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’ at Evercore ISI.
Xilinx (XLNX +5.85%) was downgraded to ‘Equal Weight’ from ‘Overweight’ at Morgan Stanley.
Madison Square Garden (MSG +1.55%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’ at Topeka.
Restoration Hardware (RH +4.06%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ at Goldman Sachs.
Barclays upgraded Analog Devices (ADI +2.47%) to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Equal Weight’ saying it believes the chip maker has secured multiple socket wins in Apple’s iPhone and iPad.
Altera (ALTR +28.37%) is up over 3% in pre-market trading on carry-over support from Friday’s 28% surge in the stock amid reports that Intel is in negotiations to acquire the company.
Fitch Ratings downgraded Greece’s Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings to ‘CCC’ from ‘B.’
Enterprise Partners reported a 8.3% passive stake in Celladon (CLDN +2.88%) .
Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM15 +0.51%) this morning are up +9.50 points (+0.46%). Friday’s closes: S&P 500 +0.24%, Dow Jones +0.19%, Nasdaq +0.41%. The U.S. stock market closed higher on Friday on the stronger-than-expected +1.8 point increase to 93.0 in the final-March U.S. consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan and the rally in tech stocks sparked by the news that Intel is in talks to acquire Altera. Stock market gains were limited by disappointment that U.S. Q4 GDP was left unrevised at +2.2% versus expectations for an upward revision to +2.4%.
Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM15 -0.07%) this morning are down -2.5 ticks. Friday’s closes: TYM5 +14.50, FVM5 +9.00. T-note prices rallied on Friday due to reduced inflation expectations sparked by the plunge in crude oil prices and the unrevised Q4 GDP report of +2.2% that suggests the Fed will to slow to raise interest rates.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.56%) this morning is up +0.520 (+0.53%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0051 (-0.47%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.61 (+0.51%). Friday’s closes: Dollar index -0.145 (-0.15%), EUR/USD +0.005 (+0.05%), USD/JPY -0.06 (-0.05%). The dollar index on Friday closed mildly lower after the unrevised U.S. Q4 GDP report of +2.2% sparked ideas that the Fed may delay an interest rate hike. The dollar received some underlying support from the stronger-than-expected U.S. Mar University of Michigan consumer sentiment report.
May WTI crude oil (CLK15 -1.35%) this morning is down -$1.01 a barrel (-2.07%) and May gasoline (RBK15 -0.84%) is down -0.0222 (-1.24%). Friday’s closes: CLK5 -2.56 (-4.98), RBK5 -0.0877 (-4.66%). May crude oil and gasoline prices on Friday fell sharply on the possibility for an Iranian nuclear agreement and on ideas that Saudi Arabia’s military involvement in Yemen may actually reduce the chances of oil disruptions in the Middle East.
|US||0830 ET||Feb personal spending expected +0.2%, Jan -0.2%. Feb personal income expected +0.3%, Jan +0.3%.|
|0830 ET||Feb PCE deflator expected +0.2% m/m and +0.3% y/y, Jan -0.5% m/m and +0.2% y/y. Feb core PCE deflator expected +0.1% m/m and +1.3% y/y, Jan +0.1% m/m and +1.3% y/y.|
|1000 ET||Feb pending home sales expected +0.4% m/m and +8.7% y/y, Jan +1.7% m/m and +6.5% y/y.|
|1030 ET||Mar Dallas Fed manufacturing activity expected +2.2 to -9.0, Feb -6.8 to -11.2.|
|1100 ET||USDA weekly grain export inspections.|
|1915 ET||Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer delivers keynote address at the Atlanta Feds conference on Central Banking in the Shadows: Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Post Crisis.|
|UK||0430 ET||UK Feb net consumer credit expected +0.9 billion pounds, Jan +0.8 billion pounds.|
|0430 ET||UK Feb mortgage approvals expected 61,500, Jan 60,800.|
|0430 ET||UK Feb M4 money supply, Jan -0.8% m/m and -2.2% y/y.|
|1905 ET||UK Mar GfK consumer confidence expected +1 to 2, Feb 1.|
|EUR||0500 ET||Eurozone Mar business climate indicator expected +0.11 to 0.18, Feb 0.07. Mar economic confidence expected +0.9 to 103.0, Feb 102.1.|
|0500 ET||Revised Eurozone Mar consumer confidence, previous +3.0 to -3.7.|
|GER||0800 ET||German Mar CPI (EU harmonized) expected +0.5% m/m and +0.1% y/y, Feb +1.0% m/m and -0.1% y/y.|
|JPN||2130 ET||Japan Feb labor cash earnings expected +0.8% y/y, Jan +1.3% y/y. Feb real cash earnings, Jan -1.5% y/y.|
|American Realty Capital Properties Inc||ARCP US||10:00||Q4 2014 Earnings Call||Q4 2014|
|Mosaic Co/The||MOS US||18:00||Analyst Day – Day 1||Y 2015|
|Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc||REGN US||Eylea, diabetic retinopathy in patients with diabetic macular edema (DME)|
|Tahoe Resources Inc||THO CN||Shareholders Meeting||Y 2015|
|American Realty Capital Properties Inc||ARCP US||Q4 2014 Earnings Release||Q4 2014||0.233|
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Back to the workweek! Spring has sprung, the futures are green, and its time for our morning train reads: • Why are interest rates so low? (Ben S. Bernanke Blog) • How to Combine Value and Momentum Investing Strategies (Alpha Architect) but see Woe Betide the Value Investor (Research Affiliates) • Confusing today’s liquidity with tomorrow’s (TRB) • How the world’s […]
Medtronic PLC (NYSE:MDT), the world’s third-biggest medical device company, announced Friday the acquisition of privately held Sophono, Inc., a manufacturer of novel magnetic hearing implants. Boulder, Colorado-based Sophono has been known for developing an innovative hearing implant device which does not require any tiny metal rod coming out from the skin, like the standard form […]
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange March 26, 2015.
NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. stock index futures rose on Monday, pointing to a second straight daily gain as a trio of M&A deals lifted sentime…
It would appear the $250,000/hour speaking opportunities for Ben Bernanke have ground to a halt, and as such, the former Chairsatan has decided to dispense his wisdom for free to anyone who cares, by becoming a blogger at Brookings. And, not surprisingly, in his first post, the person who less than a decade ago said the following, in exactly those words…
Well, I guess I don’t buy your premise. It’s a pretty unlikely possibility. We’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis. So, what I think what is more likely is that house prices will slow, maybe stabilize, might slow consumption spending a bit. I don’t think it’s gonna drive the economy too far from its full employment path, though.
… is out and about defending the Fed and central banks from pushing rates so low, in Europe you are now paid to borrow money, and are charged to save.
So, to those who are too lazy to click on the following link to the Brookings blog where Bernanke is now blogger emeritus, here is the punchline.
In what can only be described as a litany of defensive insecurity, Bernanke launches a full-on assault on all those who accuse the Fed of crushing the economy, which now includes not only tin-foil fringe blogs of the Austrian economics persuasion, but such “very serious people” as Guggenheim’s CIO Scott Minerd who over the weekend said “The long-term consequences of global QE are likely to permanently impair living standards for generations to come while creating a false illusion of reviving prosperity” and rhetorically asks “Why are interest rates so low? Will they remain low? What are the implications for the economy of low interest rates?“
His response to this rhetorical question, is the following: “If you asked the person in the street, “Why are interest rates so low?”, he or she would likely answer that the Fed is keeping them low. That’s true only in a very narrow sense.”
Actually, it is true inn every sense. What is Bernanke’s loophole? He introduces the concept of the equilibrium real interest rate. In Bernanke’s words:
Except in the short run, real interest rates are determined by a wide range of economic factors, including prospects for economic growth—not by the Fed.
To understand why this is so, it helps to introduce the concept of the equilibrium real interest rate (sometimes called the Wicksellian interest rate, after the late-nineteenth- and early twentieth-century Swedish economist Knut Wicksell). The equilibrium interest rate is the real interest rate consistent with full employment of labor and capital resources, perhaps after some period of adjustment. Many factors affect the equilibrium rate, which can and does change over time. In a rapidly growing, dynamic economy, we would expect the equilibrium interest rate to be high, all else equal, reflecting the high prospective return on capital investments. In a slowly growing or recessionary economy, the equilibrium real rate is likely to be low, since investment opportunities are limited and relatively unprofitable. Government spending and taxation policies also affect the equilibrium real rate: Large deficits will tend to increase the equilibrium real rate (again, all else equal), because government borrowing diverts savings away from private investment.
He is absolutely right. What he just fails to notice is that the entire world is gripped in ZIRP, and increasingly NIRP, is that the current bubble implosion aftermath, now 7 years after the Lehman collapse, is merely the 3rd consecutive bubble burst in the past 15 years. In other words, the Fed may spout whatever mumbo jumbo it wants about why its response to the crisis was required, what it has zero defense against is why its only policy under the Greenspan “Great Moderation” paradigm has been to inflate bubbles, and replace a post-bubble vacuum with another bubble, ultimately leading to a complete and global economic halt, and a world in which central banks now have to monetize all net developed world issuance!
In essence there is no Weimar state any more – the entire world has become Weimar, and the only reason why no currency is hyperinflating in isolation is because absolutely everyone is doing the same cardinal monetary sin at the same time.
Of course, none of this will get much exposure.
What will, however, is the former Chairman’s surprisingly defensive pivot in which it is almost as if he sense what is coming over the horizon when he unexpectedly says it wasn’t his fault the entire nation’s senior population was decimated due to his and Greenspan’s ludicrous policies.
When I was chairman, more than one legislator accused me and my colleagues on the Fed’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee of “throwing seniors under the bus” (to use the words of one senator) by keeping interest rates low. The legislators were concerned about retirees living off their savings and able to obtain only very low rates of return on those savings.
And the punchline:
I was concerned about those seniors as well.
Perhaps he is referring to seniors such as Omaha Octagenarians who had tens of billions in investments in a financial system that would have gotten insolvent overnight if he hadn’t bailed it out?
But if the goal was for retirees to enjoy sustainably higher real returns, then the Fed’s raising interest rates prematurely would have been exactly the wrong thing to do. In the weak (but recovering) economy of the past few years, all indications are that the equilibrium real interest rate has been exceptionally low, probably negative. A premature increase in interest rates engineered by the Fed would therefore have likely led after a short time to an economic slowdown and, consequently, lower returns on capital investments. The slowing economy in turn would have forced the Fed to capitulate and reduce market interest rates again. This is hardly a hypothetical scenario: In recent years, several major central banks have prematurely raised interest rates, only to be forced by a worsening economy to backpedal and retract the increases. Ultimately, the best way to improve the returns attainable by savers was to do what the Fed actually did: keep rates low (closer to the low equilibrium rate), so that the economy could recover and more quickly reach the point of producing healthier investment returns.
Well thank you for the admission that there really is no getting out of a world in which three consecutive and ever larger bubbles has burst, and now with central banks all-in to support the last one, the final outcome will be a global catastrophe with a good global war thrown in for good measure, unlike any seen before.
Yet the funniest part of Bernanke’s diatribe is when he tacitly shifts away from the Fed as the culprit for all that is wrong, and implicitly blames the government.
A similarly confused criticism often heard is that the Fed is somehow distorting financial markets and investment decisions by keeping interest rates “artificially low.” Contrary to what sometimes seems to be alleged, the Fed cannot somehow withdraw and leave interest rates to be determined by “the markets.” The Fed’s actions determine the money supply and thus short-term interest rates; it has no choice but to set the short-term interest rate somewhere. So where should that be? The best strategy for the Fed I can think of is to set rates at a level consistent with the healthy operation of the economy over the medium term, that is, at the (today, low) equilibrium rate. There is absolutely nothing artificial about that! Of course, it’s legitimate to argue about where the equilibrium rate actually is at a given time, a debate that Fed policymakers engage in at their every meeting. But that doesn’t seem to be the source of the criticism.
The state of the economy, not the Fed, is the ultimate determinant of the sustainable level of real returns. This helps explain why real interest rates are low throughout the industrialized world, not just in the United States. What features of the economic landscape are the ultimate sources of today’s low real rates? I’ll tackle that in later posts.
Let us guess: features such a Congress which is now completely and utterly incapable of passing even one law perhaps because the passage of any real reforms is vastly unpopular for any politician (just look at Greece), and after all why bother: “get to work, Mr. Chairman” has been the operative principle of the US Congress since 2009, a Congress which has had some $4 trillion in deficit funding to keep America going, monetized by Bernanke’s own Fed.
But don’t expect any mention of that in Bernanke’s blog. And likewise, don’t expect your comment to appear on the Brookings blog.
Comments are welcome, but because of the volume, we only post selected comments.
By selected they of course mean only those which praise the man who threw America’s seniors under the bus, er pardon, didn’t.
And certainly not any comments which remind the broader public of all previous Ben Bernanke greatest hits of whicht he following is a small sampling:
7/1/05 – Interview on CNBC
INTERVIEWER: Tell me, what is the worst-case scenario? We have so many economists coming on our air saying ‘Oh, this is a bubble, and it’s going to burst, and this is going to be a real issue for the economy.’ Some say it could even cause a recession at some point. What is the worst-case scenario if in fact we were to see prices come down substantially across the country?
BERNANKE: Well, I guess I don’t buy your premise. It’s a pretty unlikely possibility. We’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis. So, what I think what is more likely is that house prices will slow, maybe stabilize, might slow consumption spending a bit. I don’t think it’s gonna drive the economy too far from its full employment path, though.
10/20/05 – Testimony before the Joint Economic Committee, Congress
House prices have risen by nearly 25 percent over the past two years. Although speculative activity has increased in some areas, at a national level these price increases largely reflect strong economic fundamentals.
11/15/05 – Confirmation Hearing before Senate Banking Committee
SEN. SARBANES: Warren Buffet has warned us that derivatives are time bombs, both for the parties that deal in them and the economic system. The Financial Times has said so far, there has been no explosion, but the risks of this fast growing market remain real. How do you respond to these concerns?
BERNANKE: I am more sanguine about derivatives than the position you have just suggested. I think, generally speaking, they are very valuable… With respect to their safety, derivatives, for the most part, are traded among very sophisticated financial institutions and individuals who have considerable incentive to understand them and to use them properly. The Federal Reserve’s responsibility is to make sure that the institutions it regulates have good systems and good procedures for ensuring that their derivatives portfolios are well-managed and do not create excessive risk in their institutions.
3/6/07 – At bankers’ conference in Honolulu, Hawaii… as delinquencies in the subprime mortgage sector rise
The credit risks associated with an affordable-housing portfolio need not be any greater than mortgage portfolios generally.
3/28/07 – Testimony before the Joint Economic Committee, Congress
Although the turmoil in the subprime mortgage market has created severe financial problems for many individuals and families, the implications of these developments for the housing market as a whole are less clear…At this juncture, however, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained.
5/17/07 – Remarks before the Federal Reserve Board of Chicago
…we believe the effect of the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will likely be limited, and we do not expect significant spillovers from the subprime market to the rest of the economy or to the financial system. The vast majority of mortgages, including even subprime mortgages, continue to perform well.
8/31/07 – Remarks at the Fed Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole
It is not the responsibility of the Federal Reserve–nor would it be appropriate–to protect lenders and investors from the consequences of their financial decisions
1/10/08 – Response to a Question after Speech in Washington, D.C.
The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.
2/27/08 – Testimony before the Senate Banking Committee
I expect there will be some failures [among smaller regional banks]… Among the largest banks, the capital ratios remain good and I don’t anticipate any serious problems of that sort among the large, internationally active banks that make up a very substantial part of our banking system.
4/2/08 – New York Times article after the collapse of Bear Stearns
“In separate comments, Mr. Bernanke went further than he had in the past, suggesting that the Fed would remain aggressive and vigilant to prevent a repetition of a collapse like that of Bear Stearns, though he said he saw no such problems on the horizon.”
6/10/08 – Remarks before a bankers’ conference in Chatham, Massachusetts
The risk that the economy has entered a substantial downturn appears to have diminished over the past month or so.
7/16/08 – Testimony before House Financial Services Committee
[Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are] adequately capitalized. They are in no danger of failing… [However,] the weakness in market confidence is having real effects as their stock prices fall, and it’s difficult for them to raise capital.
Full Bernanke blog post here.
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Eurozone economic sentiment rose for the fourth successive month to its highest level in nearly four years as lower oil prices, weak euro and measures of the central bank boosted confidence among firms and consumers, survey figures from the European C…
Imagine hiking 2,663 miles of the Pacific Coast Trail. Then imagine taking a selfie at every mile. That’s what Andy Davidhazy did back in 2013, capturing a 50 pound weight loss with photos of himself.
Here’s Davidhazy at the beginning of his journey.
He created a time-lapse video (about 4 minutes long) that shows every single selfie he took over the course of his 5 month hike.
Davidhazy wrote about why he chose to do the hike (and why he chose to take a ton of selfies along the way) on his blog,
I did the hike for the challenge, and this was the hardest simple thing I could think of. In life I get rewarded for finding short cuts to things, being creative in the face of a challenge, problem solving, etc. But there’s a lot of things I want to achieve in life, and as I’ve grown older I have begun to worry that they may not happen. So I wanted to test my limitations and commitment by doing something that had no short cuts. You either hike every foot of the trail (from Mexico to Canada) or you don’t.
Taking a photo of myself every mile wasn’t about vanity, but rather a way for me to fully commit to the whole hike. If I were to skip ahead, myself and everyone else would know it.
Here’s how he started to look near the end of his trip.
By the end, the differences between the first and the last selfies were staggering.
You can watch the whole video below: