Today’s Economic News:
Nothing really for news so far today… Everyone waiting for the Jobs numbers and again, it could be that good news is bad for the market as the Fed is trying hard to get us ready for some withdrawal.
Quote of the Day:
If you think nobody cares if you are alive, try missing a couple of car payments.
Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:
This is the Fat-Lady chart, our slow trender that, when below the dashed line (the 15 DMA), has us being bearish. Above bullish. You can see how we are running on a collision course over the next day or so. The chart, with a couple of green days now, is officially neutral but remains on the bear’s side.
Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:
We think today is a bit of a crap shoot. Jobs numbers loom and we don’t know what they are nor do we know how the market will react. We want to call 1625 right here right now as a possible high that should turn for more correction but that number today could put in some more adrenalin, so we are chickening out and looking now for 1634. On the downside, the first rung below before the 1595 area is 1606. We are looking for either of these to be hit. We might not get there today, we do think there is a big move coming now or Monday.
On the MiM:
Ugh, these early close and mid-week closes do havoc on indicators and coders. We did get MiM data on the partial day, but it was light and what I think was unsanctionable.
We took advantage of the day off to finish our auto-snapshot code so that I don’t have to do that Google spreadsheet each day. These end of the day snapshots can be seen at http://closingimbalance.com/snaphshots-mim/ and they started on 7/1.
To remind people how to read my handy dandy table… the vertical axis on the left is time in minutes for the last hour of the market. The next column over shows the snapshot of the buy/sell percentage of the indicator at the time. We have the size of the imbalance on the next column and the value of the SPX index next to that.
The next section on the table starts the “trade matrix”. The values along the top again are the minutes in the last hour of trading, those would be the times that an entry could be made. So for example, taking the first trade matrix column labeled :00 (for us east-coasters that would be a 3:00PM ET entry column): Tracking down that column, each row shows us how much the market moved for or against that 3:00 entry. So entering at 3:00pm and exiting at 3:20pm could have given me 1.48 points.
The software finds and highlights the best trade in the matrix. So our 3:00PM for Wednesday would have been the best entry if we had exited at 3:20pm. If we held into the 2:40 time frame our trade would have turned negative.
The best shorting opportunity presented itself with a 3:20am entry and a 3:40pm exit giving us an opportunity for –1.85 points.
It is my way of analyzing the data compared to what the meter is reading.
Note that the snapshot data ended prematurely for Wednesday. That matrix should extend to 4PM so we are missing :40 and :50 along the top. That should be fixed today and the 7/1 and 7/2 data sets are complete if you want to take a look at those: http://closingimbalance.com/snaphshots-mim/
Check that page after the close today and see if we get our first 100% auto-generated shot. If not, I will not be a happy coder today.
About the data itself on the shortened day, it never really showed much size and languished around the 50% making it a no trade day for me.
We are in the planning stage of a MiM webinar featuring the gang from the NYSE floor filling in details on mechanics of the close, how we get our data, etc. It will most likely be mid-July during the trading day. Stay tuned!
Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:
That 86 target for the dollar is looking more realistic as this money machine just keeps climbing higher and higher. Our next rung up is 84.46. If we need to take a step back, watch 83.80.
Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):
That doesn’t count. We did not connect the dots here and are still missing that attack at 111.60. These missing days create gappy charts so we need to watch trading today.
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Breadth Charts in Full :
Zweig Breadth Thrust:
We want to see more weakness, that will have to come on the jobs data today.
Cumulative Volume Index:
Nothing really here.
Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):
The number of stocks above their 40 DMA is still quite low… waiting to see if the bulls can burst another big leg up.
New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :
This chart is quite strong suggesting that the bulls can do more damage on the upside.
Short Term Trender – McClellan Summation Index:
Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader
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