Around the Globe
Today’s Economic News:
Light on news overseas and in the USA today. A mixed bag but the UK continues to look weak.
Quote of the day:
“There you go again” – Ronald Regan during the 1980 presidential debate
Current Breadth Readings: (click here to see all our breadth charts)
We are putting up the NH/NL trender which has stayed steadfastly bullish and above its 15 DMA, a cross that signaled us to get short in April this year. We highlight it today as the 15 DMA is beginning to creep in, much as it did in March. We called that the momentum top, although the market ran on fumes for a while.
ES SP500 Futures Comments:
Yesterday, the market exhausted at the 1452 area we had marked out. We move that marker up to 1456 now waiting for a breakout. The charts are visually ugly but we do have a short term bullish reversing pattern in play with higher highs. Today, the bulls need to break 1445 and attach yesterday’s exhaustion point at 1451. We think the steam could run out at 1456. There is a lot of energy being spent between this 1% to 3% pullback area in the SP500.
The buy zone is 1430 for us today. Should the markets fall apart, we would look to see if buyers were stepping in on that area. Europe has given us a nice head-start today. This one is probably fade-able at the open. We’ll see.
US Dollar DX Futures Comments:
It has been 15 trading days, 3 weeks, since we fell through the 80 trap door on the dollar, that is 3 weeks of typing, “watch 80 for a breakout”. A higher breakout means lower equities prices. A break below 79 and the markets will be on another big leg. We see the market set up for a run-up as the dollar and the bonds are at reversal areas. That is getting to be an old shtick.
TLT Twenty Year Bond ETF Comments:
Bonds – our TLT has given us a little bit more entertainment than the dollar has. Still, this area needs to fail for the markets to rally to meet old highs and to see new highs. The good news is that it is at an area where it would be technically in alignment to fall apart. The bad news is that it has been there now for about a week and is stuck.
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