Articles by CalculatedRisk

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of October 21, 2018Monday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September. This is a composite index of other data.From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P 500 are down 11 and DOW futures…


Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined Slightly Year-over-year

From HotelNewsNow.com: US hotel results for week ending 13 OctoberThe U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 7-13 October 2018, according to data from STR.In comparison with the…


Schedule for Week of October 21, 2018

The key reports this week are September New Home sales, and the advance estimate of Q3 GDP.For manufacturing, the Richmond, and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys will be released this week.—– Monday, Oct 22nd —–8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed Nationa…


Oil Rigs Increase Slightly

A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on October 19, 2018:• Oil rigs were up this week, +4 to 873• Horizontal oil rigs were flat at 772…• Although WTI is down, the Midland price is still near annual highs and well above t…


Q3 GDP Forecasts

The BEA is scheduled to release the advance estimate of Q3 GDP on Friday, Oct 26th. The early consensus is real GDP increased 3.3% on an annualized basis in Q3. Here are a few forecasts:From Merrill Lynch:We expect 3Q GDP growth of 3.4% in the advanc…



A Few Comments on September Existing Home Sales

Earlier: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Declined to 5.15 million in SeptemberA few key points:1) The key for the housing – and the overall economy – is new home sales, single family housing starts and overall residential investment. Overall this is a reaso…


NAR: Existing-Home Sales Declined to 5.15 million in September

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decline Across the Country in SeptemberExisting-home sales declined in September after a month of stagnation in August, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All four major regions saw no gain in sales ac…


Merrill on House Prices

A few excerpts from a Merrill Lynch note on house prices: Home prices nationally, as measured by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index are running at 6.0% yoy as of the latest data in July. Assuming some modest slowing into the end of the year, we b…


Friday: Existing Home Sales

Friday:• At 10:00 AM ET, Existing Home Sales for September from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 5.30 million SAAR, down from 5.34 million in August. Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR will report sales of 5….