Articles by CalculatedRisk


A few Comments on April New Home Sales

New home sales for April were reported at 662,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). This was below the consensus forecast, and the three previous months were revised down.Sales in April were up 11.6% year-over-year compared to April 2…


AIA: "Architecture Firm Billings Strengthen in April"

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture Firm Billings Strengthen in AprilThe American Institute of Architects (AIA) is reporting today that architecture firm billings…


New Home Sales decrease to 662,000 Annual Rate in April

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 662 thousand. The previous three months were revised down, combined.”Sales of new single-family houses in April 2018 were at a seasonally adjusted ann…



Wednesday: New Home Sales, FOMC Minutes

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• At 10:00 AM: New Home Sales for April from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 677 thousand SAAR, down from 69…


FDIC: Fewer Problem banks, Residential REO Declined in Q1

The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q1 today: Aggregate net income for the 5,606 FDIC-insured commercial banks and savings institutions reporting first quarter performance totaled $56 billion in first quarter 2018, an increase of $12.1 …


Existing Home Sales: Take the Under for April

Housing economist Tom Lawler has been sending me his predictions of what the NAR will report for 8+ years.  The table below shows the consensus for each month, Lawler’s predictions, and the NAR’s initially reported level of sales.  Lawler has…



The Changing Mix of Light Vehicle Sales

Whenever I’m driving, it seems like I’m surrounded by more and more SUVs and trucks. So I thought I’d look at the changing mix of vehicle sales over time (between passenger cars and light trucks / SUVs).The first graph below shows the mix of sales sin…