Articles by CalculatedRisk


Small Business Optimism Index increased in July

From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): July 2018 Report: Small Business Optimism IndexThe Small Business Optimism Index marked its second highest level in the survey’s 45-year history at 107.9, rising to within 0.1 point of the Ju…


Tuesday: Q2 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Hold Steady at 3-Week LowsMortgage rates stayed steady at the lowest levels in more than 3 weeks as financial markets are still accounting for additional risks relating to Turkey. Simply put, …


Long Beach Port Traffic "Dips" in July

From the Port of Long Beach: July Container Volumes Dip in Long BeachThe Port of Long Beach saw a decline in container volumes in July compared to the same month a year ago, which hit a historic high that has since been surpassed.The drop, 4.4 percent,…



Housing Inventory Tracking

Update: This update includes inventory in Las Vegas and Sacramento through July.Watching existing home “for sale” inventory is very helpful. As an example, the increase in inventory in late 2005 helped me call the top for housing.And the decrease in i…


Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of Aug 12, 2018Monday:• No major economic releases scheduled.From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P 500 and DOW futures are down slightly (fair value).Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futur…


Summer Teen Employment

Here is a look at the change in teen employment over time.The graph below shows the participation rate and employment-population ratio for those 16 to 19 years old.The graph is Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), to show the seasonal hiring of teenagers dur…


Schedule for Week of August 12, 2018

The key economic reports this week are July Housing Starts and Retail Sales.For manufacturing, July industrial production, and the August New York and Philly Fed surveys, will be released this week.—– Monday, Aug 13th —–No major economic releases…


Q3 GDP Forecasts

It’s early in the quarter, but here are a few forecasts:From Merrill Lynch:We continue to track 4.1% for 2Q GDP. Growth should ebb to a still-robust 3.4% in 3Q. [Aug 10 estimate].emphasis addedAnd from the Altanta Fed: GDPNowThe GDPNow model estimate f…