UN Human Rights Chief Calls for Investigation

GENEVA – The UN human rights chief called on Iran on Wednesday to rein in security forces to avoid further violence and respect the right of protesters to freedoms of expression and peaceful assembly. Zeid Ra’ad al-Hussein, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, said in a statement that more than 20 had been killed and hundreds arrested across Iran in the past week and he urged "thorough, independent and impartial investigations of all acts of violence that have taken place." Protesters "have a right to be heard," he said. There must be "a concerted effort by the authorities to ensure that all security forces respond in a manner that is proportionate and strictly necessary, and fully in line with international law."

Owens Illinois ( $OI ) Presentation to shareholders:

Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2015 Paper, Packaging and Builders Conference Owens-Illinois, Inc. December 10, 2015

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Safe harbor comments Regulation G The information presented here regarding adjusted net earnings and adjusted EPS relates to net earnings from continuing operations attributable to the Company exclusive of items management considers not representative of ongoing operations and does not conform to U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). In addition, the information presented here regarding EBITDA is not a defined term under GAAP. Non-GAAP measures should not be construed as an alternative to the reported results determined in accordance with GAAP. Management has included this non-GAAP information to assist in understanding the comparability of results of ongoing operations. Further, the information presented here regarding free cash flow does not conform to GAAP. Management defines free cash flow as cash provided by continuing operating activities less capital spending (both as determined in accordance with GAAP) and has included this non-GAAP information to assist in understanding the comparability of cash flows. Management uses non-GAAP information principally for internal reporting, forecasting, budgeting and calculating compensation payments. Management believes that the non-GAAP presentation allows the board of directors, management, investors and analysts to better understand the Company’s financial performance in relationship to core operating results and the business outlook. Forward Looking Statements This document contains "forward-looking" statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933. Forward-looking statements reflect the Company’s current expectations and projections about future events at the time, and thus involve uncertainty and risk. The words "believe," "expect," "anticipate," "will," "could," "would," "should," "may," "plan," "estimate," "intend," "predict," "potential," "continue," and the negatives of these words and other similar expressions generally identify forward looking statements. It is possible the Company’s future financial performance may differ from expectations due to a variety of factors including, but not limited to the following: (1) the Company’s ability to integrate the Vitro Business in a timely and cost effective manner, to maintain on existing terms the permits, licenses and other approvals required for the Vitro Business to operate as currently operated, and to realize the expected synergies from the Vitro Acquisition, (2) risks related to the impact of integration of the Vitro Acquisition on earnings and cash flow, (3) risks associated with the significant transaction costs and additional indebtedness that the Company expects to incur in financing the Vitro Acquisition, (4) the Company’s ability to realize expected growth opportunities and cost savings from the Vitro Acquisition, (5) foreign currency fluctuations relative to the U.S. dollar, specifically the Euro, Brazilian real, Mexican peso, Colombian peso and Australian dollar, (6) changes in capital availability or cost, including interest rate fluctuations and the ability of the Company to refinance debt at favorable terms, (7) the general political, economic and competitive conditions in markets and countries where the Company has operations, including uncertainties related to economic and social conditions, disruptions in capital markets, disruptions in the supply chain, competitive pricing pressures, inflation or deflation, and changes in tax rates and laws, (8) consumer preferences for alternative forms of packaging, (9) cost and availability of raw materials, labor, energy and transportation, (10) the Company’s ability to manage its cost structure, including its success in implementing restructuring plans and achieving cost savings, (11) consolidation among competitors and customers, (12) the ability of the Company to acquire businesses and expand plants, integrate operations of acquired businesses and achieve expected synergies, (13) unanticipated expenditures with respect to environmental, safety and health laws, (14) the Company’s ability to further develop its sales, marketing and product development capabilities, and (15) the timing and occurrence of events which are beyond the control of the Company, including any expropriation of the Company’s operations, floods and other natural disasters, events related to asbestos-related claims, and the other risk factors discussed in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2014 and any subsequently filed Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q. It is not possible to foresee or identify all such factors. Any forward-looking statements in this document are based on certain assumptions and analyses made by the Company in light of its experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions, expected future developments, and other factors it believes are appropriate in the circumstances. Forward-looking statements are not a guarantee of future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from expectations. While the Company continually reviews trends and uncertainties affecting the Company’s results of operations and financial condition, the Company does not assume any obligation to update or supplement any particular forward-looking statements contained in this document. Presentation Note Unless otherwise noted, the information presented in this presentation reflects continuing operations only. 1

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2 O-I: The only truly global glass container franchise Recent strategic expansion in Mexico #1 position in Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand Mature markets Emerging markets #1 position in Latin America Leading position within Southeast Asia Foothold in China Acquisition Very strong performance to date Expect EPS accretion of ~$0.30 in 2016 and ~$0.50 in 2018 Expect FCF contribution of > $100M by 2018

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Diversified portfolio provides opportunity Trends are supportive of glass 3 Glass continues to be relevant in rigid packaging Premiumization trends favor glass Returnable glass containers are most economic package in emerging and growing economies Growing focus on healthier lifestyles and organic foods well served by glass packaging Globally, glass container market continues to grow O-I volume O-I positioning Beer 38% Focus on faster growing craft, premium, returnables and North America mid-tier imports Wine 23% Capitalize on best footprint in Europe; Leverage NA O-I Packaging Solutions Food 15% Harness premiumization trends NAB 14% Returnables in emerging mkts; Premium products in NA and EU Spirits 10% Growth of craft products Total 100% Focus on flexibility benefits all categories; Focus on premium

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Partnering with blue chip companies 4 Long history of collaboration Business under long-term contract Limited geographical overlap ABI packaging benefits glass Premium products and innovation Returnables in emerging mkts ABI to divest MillerCoors ABI and SABMiller each < 5% of O-I sales ABI acquisition of SABM

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Craft spirits Single vineyard wine Craft and imported beer Specialty juices Iced coffee and teas Craft soda Still and sparkling water Premium and specialty foods Private brands for premium products Emerging trends provide opportunity for glass packaging 5

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Consistent end-market demand trends 6 Europe Stable end markets Exports outperform domestic demand Selective growth opportunities Asia Pacific Overall demand stabilization in mature markets, with uptick in wine exports Mid single-digit growth in China & SEA North America Growth in wine, spirits, premium food and non-alcoholic beverages Strategic participation in fast growing mid-tier imported and craft beer Latin America Returnables: strategic packaging choice Attractive growth in Mexico and Andean region; uncertainty in Brazil Source: Euromonitor and Company estimates

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Executing on our strategy 7 Demonstrating stability Reducing asset disruptions Stabilizing supply chain in all four regions Recent actions Strengthened asset advancement program Added Mexico to footprint Established new strategy and integration organization Completed redesign of global leadership team

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8 Higher adj. EPS and FCF expected in 2016 Operational tailwinds more than offset non-operational headwinds 1Q16 adjusted EPS likely to be modestly higher than PY in constant currency Tailwinds: Operational Accretive investments (O-I Mexico, JV with CBI) Improved business performance End to end supply chain Discretionary spending controls, driven by enterprise priorities Modest increase in demand Headwinds: Non-operational External: Strong USD impact of $0.20 – $0.25, primarily in 1H16 vs. PY Forward libor curve implies higher interest rates Internal: Higher effective tax rate (~27%); corporate expense of ~$90M

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Capital structure Deleveraging is a key priority 9 Managing debt structure Early repayment of 7.375% notes due in 2016 Acquisition-related debt at ~4.2% blended rate Capital allocation priorities Continue to invest in organic growth Deleverage Expected and temporary uptick in leverage ratio Covenant allows for 4.5x for four quarters following acquisition Target ~3 times net debt to EBITDA by 2018

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Enhancing shareholder value 10 Competitive Advantage Stable End Markets Global presence Unparalleled expertise Steady glass demand Consumer preference for glass Strategic Imperatives Consistent Financial Performance Balanced Capital Allocation End to end supply chain performance Successful integration of acquisitions New business development & brand-building innovation Long-term investments in R&D and technology Adjusted earnings Free cash flow Return on invested capital Prudently invest in the business Deleverage Return value to shareholders Long-term Shareholder Value

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Appendix 11

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4Q15 guidance update Full year adjusted EPS of ~$2.00 and FCF of ~$200 million unchanged 12 4Q14 Adjusted EPS $0.46 Currency Impact ($0.15) Assumptions:1 EUR = 1.06; BRL = 3.85; COP = 3,104; AUD = 0.72; MXN = 16.6 4Q14 Adjusted EPS – Constant Currency $0.31 Europe Carryover pricing pressure; volume pressure in France in Dec.2 North America Strong gains from production volume and cost improvement Latin America O-I Mexico results; lower production volume in Brazil Asia Pacific Sales and production volume gains Segment Operating Profit Corporate and Other Costs Corporate flat as pension benefits lap prior year Acquisition increases interest expense and tax rate 4Q15 Adjusted EPS3 ~$0.40 1 Prior year translated at November 30, 2015, exchange rates 2 Changed since 3Q15 earnings teleconference 3 Pending final purchase accounting adjustments related to Vitro Food and Beverage acquisition On a constant currency basis1 2015 Free Cash Flow of ~$200 million Similar level of FCF generated as in 2014 in local currency terms Downward pressure: FX, acquisition-related outflows; energy credit removed

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Favorable trends in asbestos payments Outstanding cases down ~80% since 2008 Average age of claimant is >80 years old Payments in 2015 expected to be one-third lower than 2008 13 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 $220 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e ($ millions)

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Pension expense headwind since 2008 Current pension headwinds sharply contrast with pre-recession era Sustained non cash pension expense1 substantially lowers reported Company financial performance 1 Related to the “amortization of actuarial loss” component of pension expense. 2 Adjusted earnings refers to earnings from continuing operations attributable to the Company, excluding items management does not consider representative of ongoing operations. ~$60M delta $0.50 impact 14 2 2 Adj EPS Adj EPS, excl. "amortization of actuarial loss" 2015 Adjusted EPS

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Estimated impact from currency rate changes 15 Translation impact on EPS from a 10% change compared with the U.S. dollar EU (primarily Euro): ~$0.10 SA (primarily Brazilian Real and Colombian Peso): ~$0.09 AP (primarily Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar): ~$0.05

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test

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Remembrance and a Thank You. $ES_F 1894 x 1882


Featured Breadth Chart of the Day

SNAGHTML38a25a

Pushing the 90s. Not good for the bears, it really needs to fall apart soon.


Quote of the Day:
Injustice is relatively easy to bear; what stings is justice.
–H.L. Mencken


Comments and Levels for the Front (S&P 500 – E-mini futures) contract:

Short: 1894
Long:  1876

image

Bears are being tortured.  Like a slow water torture, drip, drip.  Yesterday we had 1892 as the goal and today it just moves up a couple more to 1894.  Slowly moving higher.

On the downside we have 1876, but any downside would be worth seeing, just for a change of pace.

 


Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):

image

Not much changing here, waiting on the world to change.

Follow me on Twitter  @redliontrader <<<<<


On the MiM:

   image

The MiM was a solid red yesterday and gave us a sell signal all hour long.   Shot at each entry was profitable.  let’s see if the selling get any momentum today.

Date Of Signal Direction x:00 Entry/Close x:20 Entry/Close x:30 Entry/Close
5/6/2014 Long 1.88 (xx:20)
5/8/2014 Long 3.11 (xx:40) 1.24 (xx:40)
5/9/2014 Long 2.72 2.50
5/13/2014 Long   0.26 0.20
5/16/2014 Short -2.22 -1.40 -2.11
5/22/2014 Short 3.32 2.24 1.66
Total   6.09 4.96 2.25

  If you want to join the meter readers you can go to: Join the MiM


 

Breadth Charts in Full:   Zweig Breadth Thrust

image

Moving on up.  Bears need to see some weakness, that is two in a row for the bulls.

 


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

CVI, right at the spot to take care of that little divergence problem.


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

Ditto as above on this chart.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart:

 

image

The upper 80s ain’t the 90s, but close.

 


Trenders Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Bearish.


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady) :

image

Bullish.


Parting Shot: 

image

Some things are just worth fighting for.  This weekend is a time to reflect on those that have sacrificed to give us something extraordinary here in the US and exported around the globe:  Freedom.  It is one of those intangibles that you don’t know what you have until it’s gone, but you use it every single day.  That gift, while endowed from God, has been protected at a price and this weekend is about remembering those that paid that price for me so that I can enjoy the gift.  Thank you all who have fought the fight and remembrance for those who never came home.

As always, we want your feedback!  marlin@redliontrader.com

Thank you for Reading – Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

It is a waiting game, like being a vet: $ES_f 1892 x 1855

 


Featured Breadth Chart of the Day

image

Ping pong on the A/D lines as we bounce up, but the bulls have shown a two-fer in here.  Two days of up and get those numbers back up.


Quote of the Day:
I was so hungry I could have eaten a horse. But only pigs were available.
–Anonymous


Comments and Levels for the Front (S&P 500 – E-mini futures) contract:

Short: 1892
Long:  1855

image

OK bulls,  show us what you’ve got.  I have 1892, an extra +1 on yesterday’s number.  That is the double dare level for today.  A breach and we may be on a run to 1913, a new century.

If the breadth is foretelling a different outcome, we see 1855 as a downside target with confirmation on that script coming in on a break of 1876.

On the MiM:

image

A large sell imbalance on Goldman Sachs had the dollar side of the MiM pushed to the sell side, while the symbols were aligned with the bulls.  That makes a divergent MiM and, for me, is not a signal for a MiM trade.

If you have streaming issues, please let me know.  info@mrtopstep.com

Date Of Signal Direction x:00 Entry/Close x:20 Entry/Close x:30 Entry/Close
5/6/2014 Long 1.88 (xx:20)
5/8/2014 Long 3.11 (xx:40) 1.24 (xx:40)
5/9/2014 Long 2.72 2.50
5/13/2014 Long 0.26 0.20
5/16/2014 Short -2.22 -1.40 -2.11
Total 2.77 2.72 0.59

 

If you want to join the meter readers you can go to: Join the MiM


Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):

image

Bonds like the downside when the markets show strength.  We are looking for a trend change and that hasn’t happened yet as the interest rate trend is still to the downside.

Follow me on Twitter  @redliontrader <<<<<


Breadth Charts in Full:   Zweig Breadth Thrust

image

A/D line is working it out.  We would love to see it break and run below 40 and get oversold, something it hasn’t done since last year.

 


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

A divergence here as CVI is lower and a higher high.   Bulls need to work it out.


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

No comment.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart:

 

image

See above.

 


Trenders Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Bearish.


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady) :

image

Bullish.


Parting Shot: 

About a month ago I wrote a parting shot on a CNN story about treatment of our veterans in the VA hospital system.  That was a month ago.  Yesterday, our President stood up and announced he wasn’t going to stand for it.   I agree, but he is a bit late to the boat. But then again when government is ruled by political necessity, the fire has to get hot enough to kick leadership into action.  Instead of doing the right thing, we have to wait for poll numbers to come up.

Now we are told to be patient as we are put on the president’s waiting list and while he does yet another thorough investigation, another political waiting list where we are the victims of the same inaction that the VA is accused of.  I wonder where it comes from?

This time there is more than the life of an ambassador at stake and we need to team up, left, right, centered, or dis-enfranchised, it is time to stop making excuses and demand the government that we pay for.  Despite what you are told, you built that, go take it back.

As always, we want your feedback!  marlin@redliontrader.com

Thank you for Reading – Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Double Rainbow, what does it mean? $ES_F 1891 x 1862


Featured Breadth Chart of the Day

image

That 90’s scare is over, but we should be dropping like a rock here.  This delayed reaction should be a bit worrisome for us bears.


Quote of the Day:
The easiest thing to find is fault.
–Anonymous


Comments and Levels for the Front (S&P 500 – E-mini futures) contract:

Short: 1891
Long:  1862

image

We expanded the upside from 1886 to 1891, that is the wrong direction for us.  We want failure and we want it big and we want it now.  Our bottom for today though is only at 1862.   If we all stomp hard enough there we might break lower to the 1852 region and work our way to a 3% correction.

On the MiM:

image

The MiM did not meet my trigger criteria, but it did a reasonable job building up into the close as the markets were thin.  Buyers were forced to trade on the close although post reveal, the markets countered the imbalance.  It was light into the close.

If you have streaming issues, please let me know.  info@mrtopstep.com

Date Of Signal Direction x:00 Entry/Close x:20 Entry/Close x:30 Entry/Close
5/6/2014 Long 1.88 (xx:20)
5/8/2014 Long 3.11 (xx:40) 1.24 (xx:40)
5/9/2014 Long 2.72 2.50
5/13/2014 Long 0.26 0.20
5/16/2014 Short -2.22 -1.40 -2.11
Total 2.77 2.72 0.59

 

If you want to join the meter readers you can go to: Join the MiM


Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):

image

Bonds have no idea which way they want to go.

Follow me on Twitter  @redliontrader <<<<<


Breadth Charts in Full:   Zweig Breadth Thrust

image

We want below 40.

 


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

There’s a breakdown that would make the bears happy, but price is not biting.


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

Only 50% of the stocks on the NYSE are above their 40 day moving average now.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart:

 

image

Come on 10’s.

 


Trenders Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Bearish.


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady) :

image

Neutral.


Parting Shot: 

Free show last night as we were out on the deck watching a beautiful sunset.  We face almost directly east and are blessed with a sunrise (which now is like 5am!), but for sunsets, we get what I market to friends, family and guests as a “Reverse Sunset”.  The water takes on that setting glow and the houses on the point light up.  I like it better than staring at a hot yellow circle.  It brings me out of the house on days like this.

Last night as the magic was happening, a very small area out over the ocean started to sprinkle. I snapped a picture of this little stubby rainbow way out on the horizon. As we waited and watched, it grew both in size and intensity.

The result was a full on double rainbow.  What does it mean?  Life is good.

As always, we want your feedback!  marlin@redliontrader.com

Thank you for Reading – Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Expecting the downside to continue $ES_F 1882 x 1852


Featured Breadth Chart of the DayNyah-Nyah

image

There’s the bounce, we like it down further though.   We are back down to where that closing squeeze happened into Friday’s close.


Quote of the Day:
Intellectual growth should commence at birth and cease only at death.
–Albert Einstein


Comments and Levels for the Front (S&P 500 – E-mini futures) contract:

Short: 1882
Long:  1852

image

We are fans of the down over the next few days.  But if too many of us feel the same way with this thin market, we could get squeezed.  For the upside we want to watch 1882, our downside is now 1852.

On the MiM:

image

The curse of the 3x witch bit me on the MiM on Friday.   Had I waited for the weekend I would have been nicely rewarded, but that was not to be so our nice selling MiM was swallowed up by the OPEX closing.  It happens.

If you have streaming issues, please let me know.  info@mrtopstep.com

Date Of Signal Direction x:00 Entry/Close x:20 Entry/Close x:30 Entry/Close
5/6/2014 Long 1.88 (xx:20)
5/8/2014 Long 3.11 (xx:40) 1.24 (xx:40)
5/9/2014 Long 2.72 2.50
5/13/2014 Long 0.26 0.20
5/16/2014 Short -2.22 -1.40 -2.11
Total 2.77 2.72 0.59

 

If you want to join the meter readers you can go to: Join the MiM


Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):

image

We have not been able to get that downside and if we are to sell off the equities now, TLT is not going to move down either. 

Follow me on Twitter  @redliontrader <<<<<


Breadth Charts in Full:   Zweig Breadth Thrust

image

Bounce.

 


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

So, not much accumulated.


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

Breadth right into the selling.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart:

 

image

The bounce is in, is the resumption to the downside going to continue?

 


Trenders Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Bearish.


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady)Nyah-Nyah:

image

Neutral.


Parting Shot: 

No Comments today.

As always, we want your feedback!  marlin@redliontrader.com

Thank you for Reading – Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

See all the people. $ES_F 1876 x 1855


Featured Breadth Chart of the DayNyah-Nyah

image

Bounce spot.  We are looking for lower but we could just produce a decent bounce in here.  Read the ES comments below to see what I am looking for to read the next move.

It is worth noting that our trenders are bending.


Quote of the Day:
A court is a place where what was confused before becomes more unsettled than ever.
–Henry Waldorf Francis


Comments and Levels for the Front (S&P 500 – E-mini futures) contract:

Short: 1876
Long:  1855

image

Nice downside move, that took us 2% back from the highs, almost to the penny.   To make it easy today, there are just two levels to watch.  1876 on the high side should be a stopping point if we bounce.  If we lance through, watch out, we could see some higher action on Monday.

For you downers, watch the 1855 for a test and hold.  If it holds, we could be over the selling.  I don’t think so, there was some real selling last yesterday.  Look at the accumulative volume chart from yesterday, there was pressure getting through the exit doors.  We think after a wiggle and a wag we should see even lower prices in here, like 5 to 8% back.

Today, everything points thus far to a bounce.

On the MiM:

image

Nada on the MiM.  It made the chat alpha testing a bit awkward but hopefully today we will see some more action at the closing auction.  Be part of a small open house chat test, if you have a Firefox or Chrome browser let me know if you can get in to http://chat.fortunesrocks.me and access the MiM and hear me drone on.

If you have streaming issues, please let me know.  info@mrtopstep.com

Date Of Signal Direction x:00 Entry/Close x:20 Entry/Close x:30 Entry/Close
5/6/2014 Long 1.88 (xx:20)
5/8/2014 Long 3.11 (xx:40) 1.24 (xx:40)
5/9/2014 Long 2.72 2.50
5/13/2014 Long   0.26 0.20
Total   4.99 4.22 2.70

 

If you want to join the meter readers you can go to: Join the MiM


Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):

image

With the market selling, TLT is going to be under accumulation pressure. 

Follow me on Twitter  @redliontrader <<<<<


Breadth Charts in Full:   Zweig Breadth Thrust

image

These mid level struggles that we have had on the Zweig since the end of April almost always resolve to the downside.  Now it is a question of getting oversold, that is a reading below 40.  It usually puts up a fight getting to that level.

 


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

Breakdown.


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

Breadth right into the selling.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart:

 

image

Right on the bounce line.


Trenders Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Bearish.


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady)Nyah-Nyah:

image

Neutral.


Parting Shot: 

image_thumb4_thumb

Thank you to all that came in, I appreciate the testing and help.  I have a lot of “clean up” to do this weekend, but your testing has been invaluable! Thanks.

I will have the doors in the room open  again today, so feel free to stop in and don’t be shy about typing in the comment box.  It is Friday on a potentially volatile day, so the MiM may just come into play, so come in and play!

Yesterday we opened the door and today we want to see all the people… Have a great weekend!

Go to http://chat.fortunesrocks.me and click on” Sign Up”.  That should get you in and give you a password.  There is still work to do but any shakedown you can provide will be appreciated.

I am sharing my charts and also the MiM this afternoon at 3pm ET so you can see that in action, too.

Hope to see you in the room (remember – Chrome or FireFox only!).

As always, we want your feedback!  marlin@redliontrader.com

Thank you for Reading – Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Open the doors $ES_F 1862 x 1891


Featured Breadth Chart of the DayNyah-Nyah

image

New highs are not there, we only did 81.  I think we continue to bleed out momentum to what is already a sluggish market that is biased to drift higher.   We think some lower level testing might make more sense from here.


Quote of the Day:
There is no cure for birth and death save to enjoy the interval.
–George Santayana


Comments and Levels for the Front (S&P 500 – E-mini futures) contract:

Short: 1891
Long:  1862

image

Here’s my deal.  The super trading range is 1913 x 1841… I expect us to stay in that box for a while.   For today, 1891 looks to be a reasonable spot to look for a drop. I don’t really have a long spot, maybe 1880.  The breadth and A/D line are flailing and bull markets need leadership and leadership is usually revealed at lower prices.  We still favor the downside.

On the MiM:

image_thumb

Nothing on the MiM as we had a decently volatile close, but the MiM was all over the place and never really triggered one way or another and it left me sidelined watching the give and take.

If you have streaming issues, please let me know.  info@mrtopstep.com

Date Of Signal Direction x:00 Entry/Close x:20 Entry/Close x:30 Entry/Close
5/6/2014 Long 1.88 (xx:20)
5/8/2014 Long 3.11 (xx:40) 1.24 (xx:40)
5/9/2014 Long 2.72 2.50
5/13/2014 Long   0.26 0.20
Total   4.99 4.22 2.70

 

If you want to join the meter readers you can go to: Join the MiM


Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):

image

Wrong way TLT…  Looing for 114 now on the upside.. One of these markets (either equities or bonds) is not going to sustain.

Follow me on Twitter  @redliontrader <<<<<


Breadth Charts in Full:   Zweig Breadth Thrust

image

This kind of action almost always resolves lower.

 


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

No new high here.


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

Lackluster follow through.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart:

 

image

That ain’t the 90s.


Trenders Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

imageimageimage

Neutral.


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady)Nyah-Nyah:

image

Bullish.


Parting Shot: 

image_thumb4

So come on in and let me know if it works.

go to http://chat.fortunesrocks.me and click on” Sign Up”.  That should get you in and give you a password.  There is still work to do but any shakedown you can provide will be appreciated.

I am sharing my charts and also the MiM this afternoon at 3pm so you can see that in action, too.

Hope to see you in the room (remember – Chrome or FireFox only!).

 

As always, we want your feedback!  marlin@redliontrader.com

Thank you for Reading – Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Follow the stream $ES_F 1901 x 1882


Featured Breadth Chart of the DayNyah-Nyah

image

We like the 90s to keep us bullish, we were close to that on the NHs/NLs numbers.   We would like to have seen something greater than 200 new highs, we only did 150.


Quote of the Day:
The enraged colonists were mad.
–CJ’s US History Work


Comments and Levels for the Front (S&P 500 – E-mini futures) contract:

Short: 1901
Long:  1882

image

Upside for today is 1901 for us.  If the markets move beyond that, we think they can go much higher.  If we fail there, watch a fall down to the 1% area of 1880 or, as we have it marked, 1882.

On the MiM:

image

A strange MiM to trade as it was late in producing.  I did a 3:20pm entry and you can argue that I shouldn’t have based on this chart.  I was a bit late at checking in and right after 3:20pm the MiM reached the 200MM threshold, hence the entry.  Again at 3:30pm the MiM was building so another entry.  I basically closed out break even on the trade.

If you have streaming issues, please let me know.  info@mrtopstep.com

Date Of Signal Direction x:00 Entry/Close x:20 Entry/Close x:30 Entry/Close
5/6/2014 Long 1.88 (xx:20)
5/8/2014 Long 3.11 (xx:40) 1.24 (xx:40)
5/9/2014 Long 2.72 2.50
5/13/2014 Long   0.26 0.20
Total   4.99 4.22 2.70

 

If you want to join the meter readers you can go to: Join the MiM


Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):

image

Wrong way TLT… Money moving into bonds again.

Follow me on Twitter  @redliontrader <<<<<


Breadth Charts in Full:   Zweig Breadth Thrust

image

Bulls have today to turn it around and the starting line is a bit behind yesterday’s close.

 


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

Still not broken out higher.


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

Breakout, but needs to push even higher out of this hole.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart:

 

image

Bulls want to bump it up and if they do, watch out.


Trenders Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Bullish – weak bullish trend change on the short term trender.


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady)Nyah-Nyah:

image

Bullish.


Parting Shot: 

image

Coming soon!  Maybe tomorrow?  I am just putting some finishing touches on my new chart streaming and chat technology.   I will be looking for some brave volunteers to do some button pushing and debug reporting.  I have to do just a little bit more tweaking today and tomorrow I will publish the public link if you want to come in and say hi.

 

As always, we want your feedback!  marlin@redliontrader.com

Thank you for Reading – Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.