Betting the Farm on NFP day $ES_F 1467 or 1447? Quickpick $study

Around the Globe

    Asia – CLOSED

  • Shanghai (China) +1.45%
  • Hang Seng (Hong Kong) +0.50%
  • Nikkei (Japan)+0.44%

Europe as of 6:39am EDT

  • DAX (Germany) +0.66%
  • FTSE (UK) +0.47%


    Today’s Economic News:


    One thing to watch today:  NFP at 8:30am EDT… stay tuned. 

    Quote of the day:
    Politics is perhaps the only profession for which no preparation is thought necessary. – Robert Louis Stevenson

    Current Breadth Readings: (click here to see all our breadth charts)


    Today we celebrate the McSI’s return to neutrality from a multi-day walk on the bear side.  Yesterday’s market put a little kink in the trender’s bear score. 


    ES SP500 Futures Comments:

    Short: 1467
    Long: 1447

    We are looking to get out of here today as the office is taking a field trip to the Fryeburg Fair farm show.  Kind of ironic on Non-Farm payroll day.   I have to confess a weakness for goats.  So far, my family has kept me from getting one and the vehicle to passenger ratio of today’s trip would prevent that also.  It was suggested that I could bring one home in a pet carrier so if you hear of someone arrested for transporting a goat in a carrier tied to the top of the car, blame me, not Mittens.

    Our best look pre-market is for a short area to 1467 and a wide buy zone down at 1447.   Both could be hit today, but not likely.  The breadth has put itself in a follow-through day, but the market seems very political to me with the debate rally of yesterday.  That means there is politics at play in today’s numbers.  I don’t like it, it is not the way to price stocks and makes the markets fragile and fickle as any dirty play or bad speech or poll can effect the twists and turns.

    We are glad not to be here, we will be watching with our stupid-people-need-smartphones.  Our best directional guess is up,  but no matter what, it’s  kind of a win-win.  Bad numbers = stimulation, good number=growth.  We are not sure.  Some of the pressure for correction has been relieved and the breadth indexes are ready to party.

    Don’t bet the farm!


    US Dollar DX Futures Comments:

    80 is the clown line, 79 the jokers, and here we are stuck in the middle.  Watching for a definitive directional break that is either a continuation of the weaker dollar or a reversal.   Right now it likes this level.


    TLT Twenty Year Bond ETF Comments:

    The bulls desperately want follow-through to the downside and 118.50 as a target on the TLT.



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