Breadth showing some green shoots $ES_F 1345/1360 are key

Around the Globe

    Asia – CLOSED

  • Shanghai (China) +0.07%
  • Hang Seng (Hong Kong) -0.51%
  • Nikkei (Japan)-0.39%

Europe as of 7:32am EDT

  • DAX (Germany) +0.15%

Today’s Economic News:

 

  • FTSE (UK) -0.37%

Quote of the day:
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored. – Aldous Huxley

 

Current Allocations from our room:

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Performance Month to Date from our room:

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Current Breadth Readings:

 

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Our highlight chart today is the 4 week cumulative NH/NL.  It is a slow trender that can help us keep our heads on the right side of the markets.  It can also whip you bad.    We use it to help decide a intraday bias which continues to be short.  These monster counter trend rallies of 10 points or more, however, are giving us plenty of upside profit potential too.

 

The key today is for this indexes momentum to slow.  We see it in the daily NH/NL, in fact it showed a positive direction from yesterday’s action.  That is key and represents a slowing in selling.  If that continues today, this indicator will begin to slow to the downside and eventually turn back up.  When selling slows, the upside rallies will become less violent (the large moves are buy programs forcing short squeezes), we should see less shorts a more gradual increase in pricing.

 

ES SP500 Futures Comments:

 

ES is wedging down on the bottom which teased us yesterday with a break down below the 1345 area.  We moved up our buy area zone, a landing pad so to speak to 1329, still expecting one more flush to the down side.  A move above 1360 with a hold of any length of time, lets say 60 minutes, would signal a possible bottom reversal.  Those are two areas to watch closely today 1360/1345.

 

Our breadth is signaling a slowing in selling indicating that the upside  should be able to hold better.  The upper trend line at 1377 is our short area where we would expect the markets to at least stall and think about where it has come from and where it wants to go.

 

 

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US Dollar DX Futures Comments:

The Dollar is getting quite comfortable here above 80.   We think at this point, unless Europe does actually fall –  not just talk about falling, the dollar will continue to be maintained between 81 and 79ish.image

TLT Twenty Year Bond EFT Comments:

TLT did not crawl into the 120 area, that is good, and the selling yesterday was healthy.  There is another bond auction today that should seal the cap on this puppy for at least a while.  If we do continue to rally on TLT, expect the markets to remain depressed. image

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