Can we grow without stimulants? Today’s job number has a hint $study

Around the Globe

Asia – CLOSED

  • Shanghai (China) +1.02%
  • Hang Seng (Hong Kong) -0.12%
  • Nikkei (Japan)-1.13%

Europe as of 6:53am EDT

  • DAX (Germany) +2.08%
  • FTSE (UK) +1.38%

Today’s Economic News:

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Good numbers out of China and PMI numbers out of Europe showed better than expected results, along with retail sales.  Jobs, of course, will be the driver today.

Quote of the day:
Write a wise saying and your name will live forever. – Anonymous

Current Breadth Readings: (click here to see all our breadth charts)

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The McCSI has now officially turned bearish.   It is going to be an interesting day today to see if the Jobs data can finally establish a direction.  The bulls have spent a huge amount of energy to get to this point.  Breadth appears to be saying that there needs to be some rewind.

ES SP500 Futures Comments:

Short: 1397
Long: 1340

As often happens, we broke from that bull flag to the downside only to find a strong pocket of buyers around 1350 that propelled us back up into the top of the flag and now, premarket, breaking out of that into the critical 1380 area.     That volatility burst has us spreading out today’s buy and sell areas, a 57 point range!

Here are our thoughts for today –

The interventional cycle works like this:

    1. Rumors
    2. Statements
    3. Action
    4. Results

Currently we are between phases 2 and 3 which is, we have now had official statements and are awaiting the actual action.   For the USA that action remains now on the back burner, for Europe’s plans are moving forward to support the Euro.   We think the markets are handicapped a little here with the US delay as that delay also pushes back the result, forcing the markets  to grow more organically.   The bulls have been strained to get here, we are not sure how much more they can give without some booster shots.

One of those booster shots could be the jobs data today.  There is much speculation that the Fed knew the jobs data earlier this week which game them the confidence to leave the markets to their own devices without stimulants.

 

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US Dollar DX Futures Comments:

Our bear flag has turned into a widening wedge.  It looks like a big move is in our future as the bulls and the bears expand the fighting range.  That 82.50/83 area remains extremely stubborn for the dollar bears.  Today’s jobs data should do some moving.

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TLT Twenty Year Bond ETF Comments:

TLT has now established a range area from 130-125.   Those ranges give us the target areas on the charts.  The jobs data could create a move today that will take a weekend of dust settling to pour through the data and see if the upside is confirmed or a longer term reversal might be building.

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