How long will this Bermuda High stick around? $ES_F 1693 x 1666

Today’s Economic News:

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Not sure why we are not getting the Europe news here. Ok data out of Japan and looking to see if we can keep the housing pressure up.


Quote of the Day:
Comedy is tragedy plus time.
–Carol Burnett

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

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The top of the market appears to be doing a slow roll as the Zweig is below 50 for the fist time in July.   

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1693
Long:  1666

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The way I see it, the market is trading between 1693 and 1672,  both sides trying to get a strategic advantage.   Our short term trender has gone from Bullish to Neutral today and there is indication that some of the underpinnings are a bit weak. Yesterday I discussed the weakness for risk and again,like yesterday the Russell has laid low with an A/D line of nearly –4:1.   Our NYSE A/D line was almost 2.5:1 and that has the Zweig finally below 50.   For today, I would be watching that 1693 area for a bullish test.  Should it give, say 1695 or more, we would be very impressed, especially considering some of the weakness momentum we are seeing in the breadth charts.

On the ATR greater than 3 watch, you can see we have done a decent pullback, that actually favors the bulls just a bit in there.  If we decide to negatively move, then 1672 is clearly an area of interest and for us, 1666 is the line in the sand. 

Prices not rising may seem weak, but maintaining here is quite bullish.  The best the bears can do is about 1.5% back from the highs and today, despite the weaker A/D lines, we are closing in on just 0.5% back from the highs.  There is no room for a bear victory dance in here. The elevator has stalled indeed, now we will find out how strong the cable is.

I would like to see one more shake up and then some selling to come in for a bearish August, but we might just get this Bermuda high that stays in place for a few more weeks.

 

On The MiM:

The MiM just seemed boring yesterday.  I know we all want to open that URL http://closingimbalance.com and see a 90% 500MM signal to trade on.  It doesn’t happen that way every day and the MiM closing data was not impressive.  Don’t try and create a trade when there clearly isn’t one.

For those that have access to the MiM,  you were better off than most because you knew during the last hour that there wasn’t likely to be a big spill into the close, there was no MOC to fuel it… and knowing that there is nothing is something. Right?

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This is our new daily snapshot that now includes the percentage of symbols that are biased one way or another.  We have had a series of divergent data from the MiM where there symbols can be 3:1 in one direction and the dollar imbalance showing the other direction.  Even yesterday as we moved into the the close we had 62% of the symbols showing buy imbalances while the MiM was a neutral 53% with a small 28M positive imbalance showing.  The more lined up the market is, the more we like the trade.   The new data has been applied to all of July’s snapshots and is available to anyone for study. http://closingimbalance.com/snapshots-mim

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

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Watching 107.  That 107.75 area failed not it is up to 107 to hold if we want to get to the 110 area.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

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Below 50! First time this month.


Cumulative Volume Index:

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CVI looking like it is beginning to think about rolling over.


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

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Our 40 DPI, despite favorable math conditions, is really struggling.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

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Bulls unable so far to regain their footing here .


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

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Bullish – Neutral with a one day red signal.  We need a few more to pull the bear card out.


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
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Our longer term trender remains steadfastly bullish here.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Looking toward if {$es_f 1690} else { 1666 }

Today’s Economic News:

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Numbers out of the UK were very good.  Even the red numbers were good!  Not much happening in the USA today.


Quote of the Day:
Hit any user to continue.
–Fuzzel Fish Administration Page


Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

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Zweig is suffering in here, but that strong close on Friday brought the A/D lines back in line almost to 1:1.  The market is not ready to correct in a big way yet.

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1690
Long:  1666

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On the upside, we moved the price target down to 1590.  Look at that ATR climbing and climbing.  If the bulls can’t get it together on either a good piece of news or bearish exhaustion, that ATR should climb up and over the 3s.   Right now the battle is on and around the 1% pullback area.

So if downside momentum takes over today and 1672 cracks, we would expect to see 166 as the next test area down.   Breadth remains very strong, although we see signs of the market losing its appetite for risk as the Russell 2000 remains weak.

 

On The MiM & A new release:

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Our snapshot on Friday was a bit schizophrenic as again it moved from negative to positive during the close and didn’t really develope a strong signal either side.  There were no shorting opportunities during the last hour as the market once again squeezed up 4+ points into the weekend close.

The week resets and we wait to see if we get any volume into today’s close.

We have released a slightly modified MiM meter starting today.  We have found that these symbol divergences are important for determining a signal so we will now capture and forward that data to the MiM readers.

First on the Status Line:

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On the status line you will notice three numbers separated by a slash (/).  The first number is the number of symbols that we are receiving that have positive imbalances.  The second number is the sell symbol count, and the third number is the number of symbols we are receiving in total.

This is a real time picture update as the meter updates.

So for times like Friday where we saw an early sell side imbalance, the symbol imbalance was actually on the buy side.  There was a 124MM sell side imbalance on Friday for JPM and that thre off our data.

We are providing that data, too, as a snapshot:

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So our snapshot table now will collect the following:

PCT – The % of the total dollar imbalance (sell imbalance)/(sell imbalance + buy imbalance) *100
Size – The size of the difference (buy imbalance – sell imbalance)
Sym % – The percentage of the symbols leaning one way or the other (# buy symbols) / (# buy symbos + #sell symbols) * 100
Sym# – Number of symbols presented with an imbalance
SPX – Value of the S&P 500 index

Please let us know if you have any issues with the new meter. It should help us out greatly in finding those symbol divergences and to judge the quality of the data we are receiving.

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

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We like it to the upside still, and we are watching for 107.75 to hold and then a tackle at the 108.75 area.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

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Zweig attempting to hold on.  We have a pretty fair start today so far, so it will be interesting to see if that Friday buy on the close continues this AM.


Cumulative Volume Index:

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No real data here.  All looks ok.

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

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40 DPI having a bit of a struggle.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

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Only 112 new highs on Friday, but the new lows were weaker, hence a higher ratio.  Let’s see if the bulls can regain their footing.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

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Bullish


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

Bullish

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Friday’s close will tell a story, last 3 days had sells, but you couldn’t tell from price (until the next morning) $ES_F 1693 x 1666

Today’s Economic News:

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Yeah! Inflation in Japan.. all green there.  Didn’t show up on the import prices to Germany though.  Today in the USA watch how Michigan thinks.. won’t they be a bit depressed over Detroit?

Quote of the Day:
That’s right. ‘Tain’t yours, and ’tain’t mine.
–Mark Twain
(when friend said that a certain rich man’s money was “tainted”)

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

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I have put up the longer term trender as our highlight chart today to remind us that this market is still very strong and bullish.  We are only off 1% from the highs.

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1693
Long:  1666

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We are watching the ATR move slowly above 3 as the market is picking up volatility.  There is danger in both directions as this market can take to the wind in either way.  Quickly and brutally.    The breadth is still very bullish and should the sideline bulls think 1% is good enough to get back in, we could be seeing new highs, even today!

Directionally we are weakening, lower highs and weak Zweig tells us that, but there is a trip line that will bring in the buyers who are anxious to be back into the game.  Watch that 1670 if we get there today for a hold.  Any signs of a decent hold should see a nice recovery rally.  Watch the MiM today as we go into the close.  We have had selling for the last 3 days, albeit yesterday was weaker selling.

 

On the MiM:

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MiM oh mania!  I guess the webinar for Saturday has been canceled due to technical reasons.   On the meter side, the market was strong into the close as the +5 gain from for the last hour tells.  The MiM was on the negative side but not really with any size until we got close to the end and there was a bit of a push down around the reveal (3:45pm ET) it was not really tradeable.   So we reset and watch the Friday closes, which are even more important.

It does appear that the close continues to get squeezed via shorts as the overnight continue to follow through to the direction of the MiM.

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

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Still liking that 110 area from here.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

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Bulls need to follow through with a 2nd return from negative yardage at the start.


Cumulative Volume Index:

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Not much to see there.

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

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Small pick up no real information here.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

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New Highs / New Lows still not quite recovered . The NYSE did 163 new highs yesterday, that is still above our arbitrary 100 we think about when we think about weakness.  I don’t think the bulls are done yet.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Bullish


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

Bullish

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Testing for the bull now. Watch $ES_F 1680 on the upside and 1666 for downside targets

Today’s Economic News:

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Mixed messages out of Europe today, mostly good though.  In the USA, look for the durable good and initial jobless claims to set the market mood. Can we ever break 300K on those initials? 

Quote of the Day:
It is better to aim at perfection and miss, than to aim at imperfection and hit it
–Thomas J. Watson

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

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A/D lines have turned considerably weaker with yesterday’s selling and today we look to open gap down and that will pin the lines even more.  We are now looking for a sub-50 reading with a test.

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1684
Long:  1666

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The bulls just could not get it done with a move above 1695 and the market broke.  Down now almost 1.5% from the highs, too many shorts jumped on board the selling and when it came to closing time, they were swept away in a nasty squeeze.  If we get continued performance today, watch that ATR line tomorrow begin to move above 3.

We are looking at the double bottom area from the 7/16 time frame at the 1666 level.  Looking for a new test there. 

We are seeing some breadth in volume selling.  It could just be position re-jockeying as we head through earning seasons into the year end close strategies.

We are suspicious of snap back rallies as money comes back in to new positions and weak shorts try to make their long awaited profits.

 

On the MiM

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A strong sell signal developed, but the volume in the market never really built up any real selling and we ended up with way too many people short with no relief to the downside toward the close, they were squeezed out. 

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That left the shorts bruised as those holding contracts that needed to settle before the cash close had to pay the escalating prices.   If you could have held through the close into the early GLOBEX, by 8:30pm the prices had returned to their pre-squeeze levels and then there was further selling into the night.   The MiM has been calling for a sell off the last 2 days and here we are now down 1% off the highs.

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You can review the closing imbalance snapshots at http://closingimbalance.com/snapshots-mim/

 

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

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We like the TLT long from here to 109.50 with a stop @ 106.50.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

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Looking for sub-50 if the bulls cannot recover from this gap down.  Watch that economic news today, durable goods, etc..  


Cumulative Volume Index:

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We finally saw some selling, something we hadn’t seen really since the end of June.

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

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Even the 40 DPI took a step back. 


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

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We still managed to put in 208 new highs.  That is not bad.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

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Remains bullish:


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

Bullish.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Knocking on 1700 $ES_F, anyone home?

Today’s Economic News:

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Not such happy news today for Asia and China and Japan closed down about 0.5%.  It is a different story in Europe and the markets there are up a percent. You can see the difference in the data above.  It’s all about the PMIs and the European one is improving and marched past the 50, the demarcation between expansion and contraction.


Quote of the Day:
Hit any user to continue.
–Fuzzel Fish Administration Page

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

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Despite a lack luster day yesterday, the NH/NL chart is telling us that there is plenty of bullish optimism.  I still would not be shorting this market, at least not yet.

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1700
Long:  1684

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We still think that 1700 is in the cards and here we are playing around 1693 again. PM numbers are the news of the day and the USA’s will be out at 9:00 am ET.  That should set an opening mood.  We are seeing increasing weakness on the closing imbalances, but those new highs… someone is buying.  That buying is going into lower risk as the N100 and the R2K lead the downside team yesterday as far as A/D lines go.  The NYSE managed to close at 1.3:1.  Positive at least.  We just think this market right now is too hot to short but that could change with an overreach by the bulls.   We expect to see 1684 tested at some point soon.

 

On the MiM:

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On Monday we had a decent size buy side imbalance, Tuesday it was a small sell side.   For those that went in, the trade was from the top of the hour to just before closing where we did a bit of a bounce.  If you timed it perfectly you could have taken 4.  I went in around 3:20 and managed to take a couple before closing out on what I saw as a weakening sell side imbalance.   Only the last few minutes of the day gave an opportunity for the buy side.   Today, we will watch the close again to see if this sell side begins to build as a trend.

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

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So far our 108.75 is holding in principle.   Let’s see if we can’t get some momentum going for a reach to the 110 area.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

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The decrease of the Zweig is slowing.


Cumulative Volume Index:

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We remain accumulating on the positive side, though.  That is bullish.

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

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Bullish.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

Very bullish.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

We have the chart continuing bearish:


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

Bullish

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

New Highs, Weak A/D line… looking at $ES_F 1700 to stall the market

Today’s Economic News:

image

Not much in news today around the globe.  In the US, house price index and consumer confidence should be market stimulants.

Quote of the Day:
To cease smoking is the easiest thing. I ought to know. I’ve done it a thousand times.
–Mark Twain

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

image

Continue to note the lower Zweig and higher prices.  That divergence will turn.

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1700
Long:  1684

image

The grind continues to the upside.  We have a decent inverse Head & Shoulders in place that we have marked out with our lipstick crayon and we have it pointing to the destined 1700 area.  We will watch that play out with some expected turbulence in the 1997 area.  I think today’s news might be a factor in these numbers.

The A/D lines continue to get weaker, but those quality stocks are still being bought as is the S&P, hence new highs. The NYSE put in 323 new highs yesterday.  Very strong.   We would like to see a test a of the 1684 area soon. 

That is what we will be watching today.

 

 

On The MiM

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Again, the MiM gave us a strong buy signal, but the market did not follow through and it did do a nasty shake in the middle of the close.  HRH Princess Kate had the inconvenience of birthing another royal during the close.  I am not sure if that triggered the news arbitrage machines, if people left their posts to check out the news or what, but we did get an annoying spike down.

I entered long a bit early and had to ride the tower of terror for a few minutes.  Once stabled, I did add and effective broke even on my first lot (made .25) and then a couple on the second.

You can see from the chart that the best trade was the Kate trade short, the best long was to wait for the close to absorb the buying.

We did some work overnight to make the MiM just a bit more mobile friendly, you might want to test that out and explore the menus as we have added more features.

Don’t miss the Webinar this Saturday.  You will be able to talk directly to those collecting the data and to me presenting the data.  It will be a learning experience for everyone.  I can’t wait to hear the questions.

Sign up at: http://mrtopstep.com/ghangout/the-mrtopstep-imbalance-meter-own-the-close/

 

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

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We are watching for 110 and the gap close, that means 108.75 needs to hold.  That should get a test today.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

image

Bearish Divergent.


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

Bullish

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

Bullish


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

323 new highs on the NYSE and we get a bit of weakness, that means we pick up some new lows.  Worth watching.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Bullish.


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

Bullish.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

We are grinding these small moves higher. Pushing toward 1697 for our $ES_F next upper target

Today’s Economic News:

image

Mostly quiet on the Eastern front.  In the US, watch the Existing Home sales.


Quote of the Day:
All good books are alike in that they are truer than if they had really happened.
–Ernest Hemingway

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

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This is the new high / new low chart.  It remains in trend up mode and very, very bullish.  

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1697
Long:  1680

image

Creep, creep.  We are in the trending 4 points higher/low volatility mode that we ground through in May, set up again here in what has turned out to be a very, very hot July.  Today we have moved our highs up to the 1697 area with a test in the 1680 possible for the bears.

Watch that ATR, it is still running below 3.  If you missed my piece on Friday about the ATR and how I use it, you can read that here:

 

 

On the MiM:

 

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Confusion abounded on Friday as the MiM was showing a strong sell that we were trying to wave off as the Pfizer was a single $250MM sell side throwing off the MiM.  We were tweeting out on http://twitter.com/mrts_imbalance . Make sure if you are trading the MiM or following it that you have that on your radar also.  

 

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We are working the next version of the Meter and we will get it out this week, that will show the symbol count on the buy and sell side.  That will make it easier to pick up these divergences in order to evaluate the quality of the data. 

On Saturday we are doing a MiM presentation. We will be hearing from those on the NYSE that collect the data, those that trade the data, and I will be there also talking about our current product, how I trade it, and what is coming down the road.  It is an opportunity to learn more about the mechanics of the close, what the data means, and how you might interpret it.

To sign up for the MiM you can go to: http://mrtopstep.com/ghangout/the-mrtopstep-imbalance-meter-own-the-close/

Hope to see you all there with some questions.

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

image

Double top on the 109.45 area, watch for 108.75 to hold and then a reach for 110. 

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

image

Here is a good example of a higher market price with a lower Zweig.  Watch those new highs.


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

Bullish.

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

Bullish


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

Chattering on the highs. Bullish. This is a focus chart again this week.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Bullish:


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

Bullish.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Shredding the Markets and watching 1693 $ES_F

Today’s Economic News:

image

We hate to give a 0% inflation number the green light, but compared to the last deflationary read we like the German trend a bit better how.  All quiet on the Western front today so we will watch what this slow rising tide action will bring.

Quote of the Day:
Reason often makes mistakes, but conscience never does.
–Josh Billings

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

image

Strong trend mode type action.  

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1693
Long:  1665

image

It was all upside yesterday and the trend continues. Up, Up and Away!  1684 has broken and we would expect the same today.  New highs are piling in once again (327 yesterday on the NYSE!).   So our downside target should actually be 1665 and we forgot to raise it today on the charts visually, but that is what we are writing down.  Upside, we are looking to extend to 1693 if we can break that 84 again.

I wanted to take a few minutes to talk about the ATR indicator (average true range) that is sitting on the bottom of my charts.  I just put them up the other day to answer a question from a reader and never took them down, but it is interesting to note that we are watching the ATR trading below 3, a random point that I have used in the past to help me judge the waters.   I think of that three as the cut off point between calm trending markets and non-trending markets.  When was the last time we were below three?  Since the time span from the end of April to the highs in May, another amazing trending time. 

The reason I brought the ATR out was because a trader a week or so ago complained about getting stopped out with a 2 point stop.  It was during a time that I didn’t even think the market had moved 2 points.  It did.  It was just a really unfortunate entry.  It happens to all of us.   The problem was, and this is when we  hate those safety nets, the trader was right and the market took off.  That is when it hurts the most, when we find ourselves sitting at the starting gate with a loss and everyone else is “winner winner chicken dinner”.  It hurts.

I have talked to many traders over the years about stops and here is the dirty little secret: the wider the better.  There is not an automated trader out there that doesn’t know that.  There is so much noise in the market that Draghi flapping his lips in Germany can take you out of a good trade at any time.

You have to know about noise.  You have to now about volatility. You have to know about range.  It has to be part of your trade setup and management.  We are in low volatility now.  If you need to make the same amount of money out of this market as you did last week when the 60 minute ATR was above 4, you need to adjust, it is not the same market. When traders say to me “I always use 2 point stops”, I hear “I always use a 9 iron”.  That doesn’t make sense to me.  I suppose it could work if your are adjusting someplace else.  There are plenty of adjusting tricks.  One of my favorite is moving time frames.  If you find you trade well in an ATR of 4, then find a time frame that is giving you that and trade that time frame, then you can keep your stops fixed. Maybe.

Iimage don’t know anything about surfing except that it is best done in the ocean, and preferably a warm one.   I live on the coast of Maine and our water temperature here is just hitting 70 for the first time this year, thanks to an unusually warm summer.  Usually the water is cold.  Between 60 and 70.  It is very different than Florida. That doesn’t stop dudes and dudettes from skinning up and  waxing on.   If you want to know what it is like surfing on our beach you can watch this video.  It ain’t Hawaii 5-0 for sure.  Surfers travel from Canada to hit these waves (what is going on up there? life must be really boring).

Here is the thing about the ocean.  It is different everyday and in different places. Did you know there are different surfboards depending on the conditions?  I have enclosed this handy little chart to help you pick your board.  It has inspired me to make the same chart with ATR on the horizontal and Market conditions, trending  -> chop on the vertical and to put down my strategy in the different quadrants. One of those strategies btw is stay out… you just are not good enough or rich enough to shred this market, watch the pros.

I have my homework cut out for me, if you have an adjusting chart like this, I would love to share it amongst the readers  (I am looking to cheat).

Happy surfing (I will stick to the web kind). 

 

On the MiM:

image

MiM is just showing us that the close was blah… No strong readings in either direction so a bit non-directional moving back an forth across the great divide.  Not even worth talking about the best or worse trading time frames since no one should have been making directional trades based on that.  If you did and you are killing it, let me know.  I know it is disappointing when we don’t get that strong MiM signal, but even having the above information, a do not trade the MiM signal (you of course can use your other tools freely) is invaluable for that closing hour.

Today is Friday.  Fridays are important.  Watch how this trend up week closes.  It will be important for Monday and next week.

 

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

image

108.75 is the target one more time and a failure there should take us down.  Break out and we are talking about filling the gap at 110.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

image

Looking good.  In fact so good that the market can go up while the Zweig is going down.


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

Good

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

How is that for a recovery.  20% of stocks above their 40 DMA and now 65%.  Nice.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

They are loving the same stocks over and over.  Very nice for the bulls here.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Bullish:


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

Bullish

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Swing number three at 1680 on the E-Mini

Today’s Economic News:

image

Great numbers out of the UK today… Watch what is happening in Philly.  Good news should equal good news with the Ben insurance policy.


Quote of the Day:
I haven’t spoken to my mother-in-law for eighteen months—I don’t like to interrupt her.
–Ken Dodd

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

image

We took that 2nd stab up and we did move the Zweig.  Will our 3rd assault on 1680 work?

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1680
Long:  1650

image

Assault number two was a no go at the 1680 level.  We have moved back just a bit.  I added the ATR (Average true range) about a week ago just out of curiosity.  The way I have it set up gives me the average move with globex over the last 2 days in a 60 minute window.  The answer is 2.81 and that is up from 2.5, so volatility is up, we would expect it to settle or trend down if we are in climb mode. 

Numbers are the same as yesterday, everything is the same except that the bulls made no headway, but neither did the bears.  That 1665 area seems defended as well as 1680 so watch for a break on either of those for confirmation and to see the market move to the next quantum level.

 

 

On the MiM

image

Wasn’t much on the close yesterday as we just moved into it slowly.  We did know that they were not going to take it down much, so no spill on the close.  That is valuable information to have.  The trade was just before the reveal,  (3:45PM ET) when the NYSE numbers are made public, to go long with the MiM and then hold into the close gave you almost 2.   

Looking at this chart and watching the meter in action are really two different things.  As price is moving, the MiM is moving, you do get a sense of how the close is going to work.  Two days in a row we have “trending” MiM readings, which either strengthened in to a signal like yesterday, or weakened out of a signal as the day before.   I think we struggle most with those days.  We all want the 500M 90% buy.  That is a clear signal.  The trending days are a bit tougher to decipher, but there is data there and data worth having and knowing.

http://closingimbalance.com

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

image

Destination has been reached on the TLT.  Watching for 110 to hold and a failure between here and there  to see how serious we are about 106.

 

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

image

Bulls need to find some more advancing stock.


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

No info here.

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

40 DPI in alignment with the bulls.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

Perfect new high recovery for the bulls back into the 90s.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Bullish


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

Bullish

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Bulls get another shot at $ES_F 1680… running start

Today’s Economic News:

image

China and Europe on the green today. Looking good.  In the US, watch the housing market and see if that is holding up to expectations.

Quote of the Day:
When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on.
–Franklin D. Roosevelt

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

image

The New Highs/ New Lows ratio chart did a bit of a pullback.  We still put on 184 new highs on the NYSE SEOcompany so it isn’t breaking down yet.  Good news out of Europe and Asia today, so watch the USA news and the housing numbers to see if this economy is still trending up.

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1680
Long:  1650

image

1680 is a tough nut.  We are seeing that and the bulls have pulled back just a bit (not much, not even 1%!).  That is a running start kind of move where the bulls want to run and take it higher.  That puts 1684 in play for the day and a good area to use as confirmation for a breakout. Breadth is very bullish and it is clear that the bears need to show some follow-through to yesterday.  Any doubt goes to the bulls without question.  We are on the lookout for serious reversal moves.  That hasn’t happened.

 

On the MiM:

image

You can see from the MiM snapshots that the early read was that a significant sell-side was developing, that was clearly erasing by 3:20 and in the final tally the MiM moved through neutral to the buy side.   That loss of the sell side signal and directional move was the setup for the best entry, a long around 3:20pm into the close that gave about 3 points.  For the early birds, the 3:00 entry with the meter and then an exit when the volume dropped below the 150MM number was the exit signal yielding about 2 points.

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

image

Last week we sang “I see the bad TLT rising” and here it goes.  It played with the 119.20 area for a while, we think it could be in trouble for a while here as far as upside, but would like to see the 120s soon in order to put on some downside pressure to aid the bears.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

image

A bit of weakness again on the Zweig.  We did have a negative NYSE line, so watch for bears to follow through, if they can.


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

No Info.


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

First negative day in a while.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

Needs to regain footing soon to resume trend status.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Bullish


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

Bullish.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.