How long will this Bermuda High stick around? $ES_F 1693 x 1666

Today’s Economic News:

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Not sure why we are not getting the Europe news here. Ok data out of Japan and looking to see if we can keep the housing pressure up.


Quote of the Day:
Comedy is tragedy plus time.
–Carol Burnett

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

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The top of the market appears to be doing a slow roll as the Zweig is below 50 for the fist time in July.   

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1693
Long:  1666

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The way I see it, the market is trading between 1693 and 1672,  both sides trying to get a strategic advantage.   Our short term trender has gone from Bullish to Neutral today and there is indication that some of the underpinnings are a bit weak. Yesterday I discussed the weakness for risk and again,like yesterday the Russell has laid low with an A/D line of nearly –4:1.   Our NYSE A/D line was almost 2.5:1 and that has the Zweig finally below 50.   For today, I would be watching that 1693 area for a bullish test.  Should it give, say 1695 or more, we would be very impressed, especially considering some of the weakness momentum we are seeing in the breadth charts.

On the ATR greater than 3 watch, you can see we have done a decent pullback, that actually favors the bulls just a bit in there.  If we decide to negatively move, then 1672 is clearly an area of interest and for us, 1666 is the line in the sand. 

Prices not rising may seem weak, but maintaining here is quite bullish.  The best the bears can do is about 1.5% back from the highs and today, despite the weaker A/D lines, we are closing in on just 0.5% back from the highs.  There is no room for a bear victory dance in here. The elevator has stalled indeed, now we will find out how strong the cable is.

I would like to see one more shake up and then some selling to come in for a bearish August, but we might just get this Bermuda high that stays in place for a few more weeks.

 

On The MiM:

The MiM just seemed boring yesterday.  I know we all want to open that URL http://closingimbalance.com and see a 90% 500MM signal to trade on.  It doesn’t happen that way every day and the MiM closing data was not impressive.  Don’t try and create a trade when there clearly isn’t one.

For those that have access to the MiM,  you were better off than most because you knew during the last hour that there wasn’t likely to be a big spill into the close, there was no MOC to fuel it… and knowing that there is nothing is something. Right?

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This is our new daily snapshot that now includes the percentage of symbols that are biased one way or another.  We have had a series of divergent data from the MiM where there symbols can be 3:1 in one direction and the dollar imbalance showing the other direction.  Even yesterday as we moved into the the close we had 62% of the symbols showing buy imbalances while the MiM was a neutral 53% with a small 28M positive imbalance showing.  The more lined up the market is, the more we like the trade.   The new data has been applied to all of July’s snapshots and is available to anyone for study. http://closingimbalance.com/snapshots-mim

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

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Watching 107.  That 107.75 area failed not it is up to 107 to hold if we want to get to the 110 area.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

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Below 50! First time this month.


Cumulative Volume Index:

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CVI looking like it is beginning to think about rolling over.


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

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Our 40 DPI, despite favorable math conditions, is really struggling.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

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Bulls unable so far to regain their footing here .


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

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Bullish – Neutral with a one day red signal.  We need a few more to pull the bear card out.


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
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Our longer term trender remains steadfastly bullish here.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

We are grinding these small moves higher. Pushing toward 1697 for our $ES_F next upper target

Today’s Economic News:

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Mostly quiet on the Eastern front.  In the US, watch the Existing Home sales.


Quote of the Day:
All good books are alike in that they are truer than if they had really happened.
–Ernest Hemingway

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

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This is the new high / new low chart.  It remains in trend up mode and very, very bullish.  

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1697
Long:  1680

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Creep, creep.  We are in the trending 4 points higher/low volatility mode that we ground through in May, set up again here in what has turned out to be a very, very hot July.  Today we have moved our highs up to the 1697 area with a test in the 1680 possible for the bears.

Watch that ATR, it is still running below 3.  If you missed my piece on Friday about the ATR and how I use it, you can read that here:

 

 

On the MiM:

 

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Confusion abounded on Friday as the MiM was showing a strong sell that we were trying to wave off as the Pfizer was a single $250MM sell side throwing off the MiM.  We were tweeting out on http://twitter.com/mrts_imbalance . Make sure if you are trading the MiM or following it that you have that on your radar also.  

 

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We are working the next version of the Meter and we will get it out this week, that will show the symbol count on the buy and sell side.  That will make it easier to pick up these divergences in order to evaluate the quality of the data. 

On Saturday we are doing a MiM presentation. We will be hearing from those on the NYSE that collect the data, those that trade the data, and I will be there also talking about our current product, how I trade it, and what is coming down the road.  It is an opportunity to learn more about the mechanics of the close, what the data means, and how you might interpret it.

To sign up for the MiM you can go to: http://mrtopstep.com/ghangout/the-mrtopstep-imbalance-meter-own-the-close/

Hope to see you all there with some questions.

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

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Double top on the 109.45 area, watch for 108.75 to hold and then a reach for 110. 

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

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Here is a good example of a higher market price with a lower Zweig.  Watch those new highs.


Cumulative Volume Index:

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Bullish.

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

Bullish


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

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Chattering on the highs. Bullish. This is a focus chart again this week.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Bullish:


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

Bullish.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Giving $ES_F 1680 the benefit of the doubt for now, if that breaks, think 1720

Today’s Economic News:

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We like the year over year inflation numbers, but those month over month are a bit soft so we want to watch that UK and Germany can get it started again over the next few months. In the USA today we also get some inflation numbers and capacity utilization numbers at 9:15, pre market open.

Quote of the Day:
Comedy is tragedy plus time.
–Carol Burnett

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

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Day 2 we are featuring the new high / new low chart.  I want the readers to understand that this market is super uber bullish and if we settle in here between 90 and 100 for a few days, this market could continue to rally to new highs in lower volatility.

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1680 / 1720
Long:  1650

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This 1680 area is the ceiling upside for the market and the bulls.   If we can hold the prices here and keep putting in a large number of new highs in stocks (we did 318 NYSE new highs yesterday), we can begin another sustained leg moving up with lower volatility.  That is 180 degrees from what we said at the beginning of the month when we thought the summer was going to be sideways and choppy.  We can’t ignore the bullishness in this market and as we approach 1680, the bears will need to be seeing a lot of bullish breadth draining and volatility increasing if they’re hoping for a breakdown here.   So we sit back and watch how we trade from this level.

On the close and the MiM, we did see a slowdown in interest to get into this market, something different than Thursday and Friday.

On The MiM:

 

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For me, the MiM was just neutral all through the close.  The sell side did build up toward the close and we were down just a bit on the hour, but it wasn’t wholesale selling, but more importantly, it was a display of clamoring to get in like we saw last Thursday and Friday.   The best short was at a 3:10pmET entry into the close and there was little opportunity to make money long.

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

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Decision time on the TLT now.  It looks like if we don’t move the open today we should hit that 180.75, we closed it out yesterday at 108.67.   If we do start to get selling at the 1680 level, we should see a move up to that 109.50 area next.  If we do fail here, watch 106.50 and then 105 area.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

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Strong


Cumulative Volume Index:

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Just a bit of a bearish divergence, but otherwise looks ok.

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

Lower high trend line is worth watching on this chart. 


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

You already know what I think about this chart.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Bullish


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

Bullish

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Looking for signs of follow-through today, bearish divergence on the A/D lines. $ES_F 1680

Today’s Economic News:

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Nothing from the Majors yet today.    USA will see some retail sales numbers and the NY Empire state should put the spin on the NY open today.


Quote of the Day:
The happiest couples are those who spell “us” with a capital “you.”
–Klare Provine

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

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Featuring the New High / New Low charts.  They remain incredibly strong making it almost impossible to short this market.

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1680
Long:  1538

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I am watching for that double top at the 1680 area to see how this run-away bull will react.  We like the 1650 area for a retest and, if that fails, a breakdown to the 1616 area, but for now, bull on.   If you doubt that, look at that these crazy closing imbalances!

 

On the MiM

 

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We couldn’t believe our eyes as the close built.  99% buy side on the last reads on Friday.   Our signal came in on threshold at 3:10pm ET and that turned out to be the best entry spot giving an easy 5 points back in return.  That is not bad on a day that only saw a 5.75 point range going into the close.   It would have been hard to get stopped out on that closing trade.

We have a new week starting on the MiM.  You can follow along after the close by going to http://closingimbalance.com/snapshots-mim and see how the MiM performed for the subscribers that day.  It is usually complete with information about 5 minutes after the cash close. 

If you want to invest in your trading and see if the MiM would be a good addition to your bag of tools, you can sign up for a month for just $99. Even if you only do one month, learning the mechanics of the close is as important part of understanding the market.

 

 

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

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We have been looking for that 108.75 on the upside as a stop to a bear flag.  The price is flagging so far so let’s watch for a touch in that area and see if we fail.  If we do, we are looking in the 105 area.

 

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

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Our NYSE A/D line remained negative into the close.  That has set up a bearish divergence here.  Caution on aggressive longs is advised.


Cumulative Volume Index:

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Volume followed through nicely.

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

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The 40 DPI is also in line with the market


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

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This we already know…


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Bullish


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

Bullish

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Taper Caper at 2pm ET $ES_F 1661 x 1632

Today’s Economic News:

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Not a lot of news overnight.  Today, it is all about the Fed and taper so listen for the arrival of Ben around 2pm ET, you should hear the blades of his helicopter first.


Quote of the Day:
I went to a fight the other night and a hockey game broke out.
–Rodney Dangerfield

Game 4 Tonight! I am feeling a little bearish for the game…

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

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There is the Zweig on a roll.  We have a nice move up. We are officially in a bear trend mode,  we need to see some selling kicking in soon.

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1661
Long:  1615

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Our trending indicators remain bearish as we continue to move up in what is looking like a play to resolve the inverse heads and shoulders.   The market has moved a very nice 50+ points against the bears off the low, if we are to see the bearish trend hold, we need to get that selling vibe on and soon.  For today, we are looking toward a possible top in the 1661 area and then a progressive failure down to 1615.  That upside down head from the head and shoulders paints a fairly good picture of how volatile this market is either way and how it can move quickly for and against you.

Today is all about the Fed and the Taper-Caper.   Watch for market reaction to any news of a slow down in the QE drip that is currently helping to sustain growth and hence the markets.

MiM UPdate:

The MiM did its job and showed a decent sell going into the close.

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Our handy dandy chart shows that short indeed was the trade and getting in early and leaving just before the bell would have given you around +3.  I was emailing with Ted and we traded together very early and both took +2 out of the trade.

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If you don’t know what the MiM is, come on around this afternoon just before 3pm.  We are opening the doors today for everyone to get a sneak peak at meter reading going into the FOMC closing day.

http://closingimbalance.com

 

Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:

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I just noticed that I chopped off the top or our Dollar chart this AM.  Our next target up is the 83.75 area. We do have some long from yesterday, which we have lightened considerably, and would take the rest off at 83.68, adding at 83.20 if given the chance.  Our longer term target on the dollar remains at 86.

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

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Last week we sang “I see the bad TLT rising” and here it goes.  It played with the 119.20 area for a while, we think it could be in trouble for a while here as far as upside, but would like to see the 120s soon in order to put on some downside pressure to aid the bears.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

image

Ok sellers, where for art thou?


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

Nothing wrong here for the bulls.


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

This is still has a bit of a bearish divergence to it. 


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

It needs to start chattering in a small range to show trend resumption.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Bearish.


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

Here comes the test, the question is whether or not that roll of the 15 DMA is going to be a resistance point.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Gaps, Head and Shoulders and a Bad MiM $ES_F 1641 x 1612

Today’s Economic News:

image

Waiting for an interest decision out of Europe.  Japan just dumped a pile of cash for a massive intervention plan.

Quote of the Day:
By and large, language is a tool for concealing the truth.
–George Carlin

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

image

We will put up the Zweig today and just mention that we are tightening up and looking for a breakout to turn into a trend.   The Zweig has lower highs and higher lows. 

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1641
Long:  1612

image

There is that completed inverse head and shoulders. It is a nice looking one and points to just short of the highs at the 1672 area.  For today, we are marking the high to be that last area we fell apart from the 1641 area.  We should all be on September contracts now.

On the downside, should this pattern fail, we like to see buyers at that 1612 area for the short term.   It is going to be an exciting week! 

 

MiM Update:

Week in review.  First off, what happened on Friday?   Thank you for the emails, some inquisitive, some constructive, and some not so nice.   Friday’s reading suffered from a communications breakdown from the NYSE floor to the meter.  Unfortunately, we didn’t know until after the 3:45pm ET timeframe and after I took a 2 point loss on an ES trade.   We have had discussions on the issue, we are going to put in a stale data measurement and a way to push out alerts to let the subscribers know if the data is stale and not updating.  It is all part of the learning process and being on the front of something great.

I have been waiting for a day when I get a false signal and I, too, was fooled with Friday’s meter. Congrats to those that took the early long and took their profit and to those that realized the data was just plain wrong. I was neither of those.

There is a a new version of the meter coming out this week that is mostly back-end updates.  We are adding the size information to the snapshot so you can come in late and see how the imbalance has and is progressing.  That, too, will help us recognize bad data. Sometime this week, members should get an email with a URL to test the new version so we can release it.

So let’s do the week in review and then at the end of the Month we will have a full months worth of data to review:

Monday:

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No real signal either way.

Tuesday:

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A strong sell signal and you couldn’t go wrong taking the short anywhere as we sold into the close.

Wednesday:

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During the time that the signal was strong on the sell,  we had a decent short going with the meter and exited when the meter lost the signal and buyers came in as we took our profit.  It is interesting to note that a 2nd entry was available when the signal again moved above 66.6%.

Thursday:

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Again, no signal either way (and no signal is a signal, an all-clear continuation signal).

Friday:

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The early readings were correct and then sellers came in and we did not get that data and the imbalance swapped on us and we sold into the close.  I took a –2 on some ES after a decent entry and run up early.   I have been waiting for a false signal to learn more about trading this meter, but it turns out that the lesson is don’t always trust the data and learn how to fix that.  So I will wrap in some data quality sniffing in the next release to make sure that we all know that the meter is using stale and starved data.

So we have completed week 2 and, while not as profitable for me as week one, I still got two good days in and unfortunately we ended on a sour note, but that was our first and we understand it and can fix it.  So that is good and we are looking forward to week 3.

As always, if you have questions about how I trade the MiM or if you have suggestions for improvements or features, feel free to email me marlin@mrtopstep.com

 

 

Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:

image

Watching 80.82 now for the hold and a break there brings up to 80.49.  On the upside we like the 81.35 area.

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

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We see TLT on the rise.  Next step up is 115.21 and if we think a reversal is in the works watch 113.20 to hold.

 

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

image

The market is tightening up in here, despite the volatility.  So watch this week for a break either way.


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

More signs of that tightening up.


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

This one looks a little weaker.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

Decent bounce.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Trend is bearish..


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

Fat Lady is bearish.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Reversal underway $ES_F 1622 x 1580

Today’s Economic News:

image

Not much happening on the international front.  Today in the USA it is about retail sales, initial jobless claims, and … business inventories.


Quote of the Day:
Dishonesty, cowardice and duplicity are never impulsive.
–George A. Knight

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

image

We have not featured the 40 DPI for a while.  This chart is the number of stocks on the NYSE that are currently trading above their 40 day moving average, and that is down now to just 32% of stocks that are above their 40 day average.  The highlight for this chart today is to show that despite closing a higher low on the SPX price action, the NYSE actually lost more stocks below that 40 DMA.  The broad market remains weaker.

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1622
Long:  1580

image

We are 5% back from the highs now, a decent correction.  The question is whether or not this is going to be something a bit longer than just a pullback buying opportunity.  It looks to us that the trend is turning for a bearish reversal.  We would like some more testing of that, but for now the Fat-Lady is happy short and our other trender remains short.

It is rollover time… I hate that as I have to change all my charts. This double bottom is here at 1598 and we are watching.  A break lower is the 1580 target for us.  We think that 1522 is a good upside target. Breadth remains weak and “sell the rallies” is the rallying cry.

MiM Update:

Some of you are much braver than me.  I waved off the any trades yesterday and I have several that wrote me nice notes like, “this thing really works” and “I killed it”.   For me, seeing the market dump into the close and then piggy backing on top of that is hard.  Here is what the handy-dandy chart said about yesterday’s trades:

image

We start tracking data on the handy chart at 3pm ET, but there are readings before 3pm and they were strong.  At 3pm ET (:00) we had a negative 72% sell-side going and the market was making a good move downside.  I couldn’t throw the switch after such a large move down and such a relative weak size and signal, I just sat watching.  That early trade was the trade to make however.  A :00 entry with an exit when you started to lose the signal would have given you about 3.5 points.  Look at that long reversal at the 3:20 time slot.   It is a little hard to explain with 10 minute snapshots how you can watch the imbalance right, but if you have the meter, it is updating constantly and you can see the shift in momentum on the imbalance.

What happens is, if you have an early imbalance in favor of the market direction and the market moves far enough/fast enough, the imbalances will correct and you can see that.  When we hit the 1611 area on the SPX, there were both enough buyers to buy into the imbalance and to put in their own buy-side order to create buying imbalances to move us effectively from a strong sell side to neutral.   That is how the meter works and I am probably doing a horrible job explaining it,  I am a bit sleep deprived after last night’s loss against the Hawks.

That is my read of the meter from yesterday… what us meter readers are looking for here is for the institutions to step in with a big buy side on a down market.  Today should be good.

 

Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:

image

That 81 wall broke and found our 80.65 area.  Watch for a test of the new 81 ceiling.

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

image

112.50 is the test and 113.75 is the upside reversal breakout.  Look that way.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

image

Ask and you shall receive.  Zweig got itself oversold here.  


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

No real divergence yet here.

NYSE Up/Down Volume Percent :

image

Still waiting for that capitulation selling.  


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

The broader market is weaker here than price would suggest as the 40 DPI leads to the downside.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

This chart is not very symmetrical, that is it doesn’t trend nicely to let us now we are in a controlled slide, but there is one decent signal that could set up.  If we get a lower close in here with a higher NH/NL reading, that is a decent bounce signal.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Bearish


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

We like the hook down for the bears. Bearish

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Right shoulder’s neckline at 1645, the trap door points to 1615 $ES_F

Today’s Economic News:

image

We liked almost everything we saw here.  Europe may not be where it was 12 months ago, but the current recovery seems pretty decent and moving along.   In the US today, not much to report except the energy numbers.


Quote of the Day:
The hunger for love is much more difficult to remove than the hunger for bread.
–Mother Teresa

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

image

Really not much to report today as far as a chart we are wanting to spotlight.  The Fat-Lady is our most interesting chart as we await a higher high or lower low test.   

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1645
Long:  1615

image

It looks like the ES wants to play the inverse head and shoulder out.  We have an upside target on that neckline at 1645.  If that fails, we want to see 1615.  Really not much else to say.  We are coming into quarter end and seeing some weakness. We have index rebalancing as well as contract roll-over. So there is a lot of extra “noise” in the market for the remainder of the month.

On the MiM Front…

I was talking with the data source the other day who told me that Quarter end and re-balance time are great opportunities for trading the MiM.  I have only had about 6 weeks doing it so this is going to be even more fun as we work our way through.

I enjoy the daily emails and questions coming in as we all are working the meter in our own way and that is great.  I did add a blog section to the hosting site http://closingimblance.com , where I am putting up this embedded piece and other related pieces to trading the close.

Yesterday, we had a strong sell signal out of the chute.  The volume was decent and the imbalance strong to the sell-side.  I took my short earlier than usual, near the 3pm time-frame at 33.25.

redliontrader (06/11/2013 – 14:59:03): taking short here 33.25

 

FrogMan- (06/11/2013 – 15:28:19): marlin what s ur target on this short ES?

redliontrader (06/11/2013 – 15:30:48):  not sure yet frog man.. might be a timed exit

FrogMan- (06/11/2013 – 15:31:15): ok tks

redliontrader (06/11/2013 – 15:31:19): how ‘bout here at 28.25.. that gives me 5

A bullish tick and stall around 3:30pm took me out.  I have been trying to hold the entry until the xx:20 time frame and then exit either at xx:45 when the NYSE MOC is made public or split one off and hold into the close.  I took the 3:31 exit and left some on the table. 

The handy-dandy chart looks like this:

image

The chart is telling us the 3pm ET short into the close was the way to go yielding a nice 7.5 points, but that 3:20 trade into the close was pretty efficient, too.  Still +5 on the close is nothing to cry about.

I am getting lots of requests for free samples.  Well, they are here everyday as I run through the meter and the close.  When asked if I would help administer the MiM one of my conditions was no free trials.  Not that I am mean, but we are all traders and to add and subtract voyeurs is very expensive time wise.  Instead we strived to work with the vendor to make it cheap enough to say try it, we think you’ll like it.  So do me a favor, don’t ask for a free trial.  I am compulsive enough to answer all my emails and that already defeats the zero administration goal to help keep the price cheap.

A month is $99 and the discounts for longer term subscriptions are huge.  So if you want a trial, pony up the $99, that is a dinner out for two for goodness sake, and if you don’t like the meal, by all means complain to the chef.  We think you will like what is cooking.

http://closingimbalance.com

 

Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:

image

81, 81, 81 anyone?  Brick wall there, if it breaks we have 80.65 on the downside.  81.67 is the upside.

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

image

That 111.60 played out nice, now watch today for 113.20 to do its holding thing.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

image

We would like to see it go back into oversold. 


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

Just a bit bearish, but too weak to read really.

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

The 40 DPI is making a nice push downward.  Again, we would like to see the bears get this down below the 20 level for a healthy correction. 


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

Hmm… 40 new highs on the NYSE. Today’s decent gap up will be a good indication if this can lift.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Bearish- Down


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

Bearish, but… we would like to see it take a more aggressive downside and soon.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

MiM update and a market in reverse $ES_F 1641 x 1615 … waiting for turnaround Tuesday.

Today’s Economic News:

image

Markets are down the morning, but those numbers look pretty good to us.  In the USA today, it is going to be the 7:30 optimism report and the wholesale inventories at 10am that will be meter movers.

Quote of the Day:
The thing I hate about an argument is that it always interrupts a good discussion.
–G.K. Chesterton

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

image

Right now, this correction looks very similar to the correction back in April, with the crossing of the Fat-Lady above and the slight down-turn of the dashed 15 DMA trigger line.  We like the test here and are looking for a failure which would help confirm a longer term market trend reversal.

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1641
Long:  1615

image

The market faded just short of our 1655 target from yesterday and is now heading back down pre-market.  We have marked that 1621 area which is where the market should base and reverse if it wants to make a nice looking inverse head and shoulders with a threat to move up to 1688 and new highs.  That would be exciting.

We like the 1615 target from here, and that would fail that right shoulder, at least for now.

Breadth is not telling us that the bulls are overplaying their hands, it has settled into a comfortable bearish mode.

 

MiM Update:

Yesterday, I wrote a piece that was a bit longer about trading the MrTopStep MiM indicator which you can read here.   Yesterday’s action was a waved-off-no-trade according to my 3 easy rules plus 5 of trading.  While it was saying short and the market did reverse, it looks like 3 was about the best you could get as, indeed, the day and the close proved very choppy.

 

image

We have added color to the PCT line now.  A lighter color is the direction of the meter but not above my 66 threshold and a darker, more saturated version indicates a potential trigger (remember, size matters too and we should put dollar volume in too!).

As I sit and type, I see that I made a mistake.  Each morning I hand scan the trading entry array on the right looking for the highest absolute value and I now see that a trade entered at 3PM ET and taken off at 3:50 would have yielded 3.2 points on the short side as opposed to my 3:10 entry highlight.  Sorry about that.

But here is the point: all meters and signals and prices and trades are full of noise and in order to win consistently, you need to find that signal that stands above the noise and trade it.  To me, yesterday was a very noisy signal producing a small return.

The MiM isn’t going to give you a clear signal every day, but it is going to tell you something every day.  It is great to see familiar and new faces becoming meter readers.  If you want to learn more about this brand-new data source you can visit:

http://closingimbalance.com

And never be shy about writing and asking questions. I think I scared off a few people with yesterday’s comments about don’t ask me how to trade it.. The point I was making was that  you need to learn how to trade it and after you read and watch you are bond to have questions and I am more than willing to answer. marlin@redliontrader.com

 

Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:

image

We are watching for a test of 81, thinking that is not going to happen from here.  But before we get all bullish, we want to see a breakout above that 82 area.

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

image

Watching 111.60 as a last stand and we are there right now as I type.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

image

Zweig is asleep.  No real info here.


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

Copy cat mode, nothing interesting here in the way of divergences.

Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

Again, nothing good here.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

Folding under, again nothing to read here.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Bearish mode.


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

Our fat-lady is bearish and staying that way, at least for now.

 

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

When bad things happen to good numbers.. watch the payroll. $ES_F 1635 x 1618

Today’s Economic News:

image

It is all ‘bout the Jobs numbers today..

watch for the reaction because today might be one of those good numbers equals less stimulus equals lower future growth equals lower markets kind of days.


Quote of the Day:
A verbal contract isn’t worth the paper it’s written on.
–Samuel Goldwyn

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

image

Our bounce out of oversold is in but we don’t think it has been oversold enough.  We did not get our 9:1 down volume day triggers to tell us the sellers have capitulated yet.  

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1635
Long:  1618

image

It is about the jobs today, so watch those numbers.

We did fall too far/ too fast intraday yesterday and that was bought backup all the way to the shelf above 1618 and now it is up to the bulls to do something with that.  We still like the possible 1635 upside target and we don’t think the selling is over, that means volatility.

Today is dedicated to the jobs report and we think it could be opposite day.   A bad number means the Fed’s will be slower at walking away and a good number might mean a faster transition.  The market always has you thinking. 

On the closing meter yesterday we showed and small negative imbalance all hour long. I was on the phone with a trader around 3pm ET and we talked and I shared that it has been my observations that imbalances less than 66.6% either way are to be thought of as neutral and that any chance of a market reversal is diminished, and we did rally all the way into the close.

   image

I am hearing that the NYSE MOC imbalance was actually on the buy side.  There was warning that GM was being added to the S&P500 and that would effect the imbalance readings for the day.  Here is the handy dandy chart.  I have one more day, today, and the week will be complete and we will roll up our observations.

image

The best trade was long from just before the MOC release into the close, producing a nice 8 points. So even though the meter did not produce a strong bias but holding long into the close knowing that there most likely isn’t a $1B sell imbalance building is information too. A clear air ahead signal.

If you haven’t seen this cutting edge tool you can visit at: http://closingimbalance.com

 Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:

image

How is that for weakness! The numbers out of Germany today were also strong and that is going to keep the dollar down.  If we get decent jobs numbers today, this sell-off should give a nice upside move. Letting the dust settle here.

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

image

We moved to the 60 minute chart for the TLT-A-Whirl. Yesterday we called out the inverse HNS and the 117.38 target.  It didn’t hit.  We are going to let the dust settle today post jobs number before we get all directional here.  We do like any hold above 114.50 as bullish, else a ride down to 112.50 area.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

image

The Zweig has bounced, but if the market is as weak and damaged as we think it might be, we will pass this way again.  


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

Nothing here.

NYSE Up/Down Volume Percent :

image

Looking for some confirmation, we have neither a selling capitulation signal nor a buying thrust signal to help align ourselves directionally.  We think there is more work to be done by the bears. 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

A small bounce here.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

just noise right now.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

bearish


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

Bearish

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.