Today’s Economic News:
Not sure why we are not getting the Europe news here. Ok data out of Japan and looking to see if we can keep the housing pressure up.
Quote of the Day:
Comedy is tragedy plus time.
Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:
The top of the market appears to be doing a slow roll as the Zweig is below 50 for the fist time in July.
Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:
The way I see it, the market is trading between 1693 and 1672, both sides trying to get a strategic advantage. Our short term trender has gone from Bullish to Neutral today and there is indication that some of the underpinnings are a bit weak. Yesterday I discussed the weakness for risk and again,like yesterday the Russell has laid low with an A/D line of nearly –4:1. Our NYSE A/D line was almost 2.5:1 and that has the Zweig finally below 50. For today, I would be watching that 1693 area for a bullish test. Should it give, say 1695 or more, we would be very impressed, especially considering some of the weakness momentum we are seeing in the breadth charts.
On the ATR greater than 3 watch, you can see we have done a decent pullback, that actually favors the bulls just a bit in there. If we decide to negatively move, then 1672 is clearly an area of interest and for us, 1666 is the line in the sand.
Prices not rising may seem weak, but maintaining here is quite bullish. The best the bears can do is about 1.5% back from the highs and today, despite the weaker A/D lines, we are closing in on just 0.5% back from the highs. There is no room for a bear victory dance in here. The elevator has stalled indeed, now we will find out how strong the cable is.
I would like to see one more shake up and then some selling to come in for a bearish August, but we might just get this Bermuda high that stays in place for a few more weeks.
On The MiM:
The MiM just seemed boring yesterday. I know we all want to open that URL http://closingimbalance.com and see a 90% 500MM signal to trade on. It doesn’t happen that way every day and the MiM closing data was not impressive. Don’t try and create a trade when there clearly isn’t one.
For those that have access to the MiM, you were better off than most because you knew during the last hour that there wasn’t likely to be a big spill into the close, there was no MOC to fuel it… and knowing that there is nothing is something. Right?
This is our new daily snapshot that now includes the percentage of symbols that are biased one way or another. We have had a series of divergent data from the MiM where there symbols can be 3:1 in one direction and the dollar imbalance showing the other direction. Even yesterday as we moved into the the close we had 62% of the symbols showing buy imbalances while the MiM was a neutral 53% with a small 28M positive imbalance showing. The more lined up the market is, the more we like the trade. The new data has been applied to all of July’s snapshots and is available to anyone for study. http://closingimbalance.com/snapshots-mim
Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):
Watching 107. That 107.75 area failed not it is up to 107 to hold if we want to get to the 110 area.
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Breadth Charts in Full :
Zweig Breadth Thrust:
Below 50! First time this month.
Cumulative Volume Index:
CVI looking like it is beginning to think about rolling over.
Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):
Our 40 DPI, despite favorable math conditions, is really struggling.
New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :
Bulls unable so far to regain their footing here .
Short Term Trender – McClellan Summation Index:
Bullish – Neutral with a one day red signal. We need a few more to pull the bear card out.
Our longer term trender remains steadfastly bullish here.
Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader
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