How long will this Bermuda High stick around? $ES_F 1693 x 1666

Today’s Economic News:

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Not sure why we are not getting the Europe news here. Ok data out of Japan and looking to see if we can keep the housing pressure up.


Quote of the Day:
Comedy is tragedy plus time.
–Carol Burnett

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

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The top of the market appears to be doing a slow roll as the Zweig is below 50 for the fist time in July.   

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1693
Long:  1666

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The way I see it, the market is trading between 1693 and 1672,  both sides trying to get a strategic advantage.   Our short term trender has gone from Bullish to Neutral today and there is indication that some of the underpinnings are a bit weak. Yesterday I discussed the weakness for risk and again,like yesterday the Russell has laid low with an A/D line of nearly –4:1.   Our NYSE A/D line was almost 2.5:1 and that has the Zweig finally below 50.   For today, I would be watching that 1693 area for a bullish test.  Should it give, say 1695 or more, we would be very impressed, especially considering some of the weakness momentum we are seeing in the breadth charts.

On the ATR greater than 3 watch, you can see we have done a decent pullback, that actually favors the bulls just a bit in there.  If we decide to negatively move, then 1672 is clearly an area of interest and for us, 1666 is the line in the sand. 

Prices not rising may seem weak, but maintaining here is quite bullish.  The best the bears can do is about 1.5% back from the highs and today, despite the weaker A/D lines, we are closing in on just 0.5% back from the highs.  There is no room for a bear victory dance in here. The elevator has stalled indeed, now we will find out how strong the cable is.

I would like to see one more shake up and then some selling to come in for a bearish August, but we might just get this Bermuda high that stays in place for a few more weeks.

 

On The MiM:

The MiM just seemed boring yesterday.  I know we all want to open that URL http://closingimbalance.com and see a 90% 500MM signal to trade on.  It doesn’t happen that way every day and the MiM closing data was not impressive.  Don’t try and create a trade when there clearly isn’t one.

For those that have access to the MiM,  you were better off than most because you knew during the last hour that there wasn’t likely to be a big spill into the close, there was no MOC to fuel it… and knowing that there is nothing is something. Right?

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This is our new daily snapshot that now includes the percentage of symbols that are biased one way or another.  We have had a series of divergent data from the MiM where there symbols can be 3:1 in one direction and the dollar imbalance showing the other direction.  Even yesterday as we moved into the the close we had 62% of the symbols showing buy imbalances while the MiM was a neutral 53% with a small 28M positive imbalance showing.  The more lined up the market is, the more we like the trade.   The new data has been applied to all of July’s snapshots and is available to anyone for study. http://closingimbalance.com/snapshots-mim

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

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Watching 107.  That 107.75 area failed not it is up to 107 to hold if we want to get to the 110 area.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

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Below 50! First time this month.


Cumulative Volume Index:

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CVI looking like it is beginning to think about rolling over.


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

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Our 40 DPI, despite favorable math conditions, is really struggling.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

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Bulls unable so far to regain their footing here .


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

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Bullish – Neutral with a one day red signal.  We need a few more to pull the bear card out.


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
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Our longer term trender remains steadfastly bullish here.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

New Highs, Weak A/D line… looking at $ES_F 1700 to stall the market

Today’s Economic News:

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Not much in news today around the globe.  In the US, house price index and consumer confidence should be market stimulants.

Quote of the Day:
To cease smoking is the easiest thing. I ought to know. I’ve done it a thousand times.
–Mark Twain

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

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Continue to note the lower Zweig and higher prices.  That divergence will turn.

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1700
Long:  1684

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The grind continues to the upside.  We have a decent inverse Head & Shoulders in place that we have marked out with our lipstick crayon and we have it pointing to the destined 1700 area.  We will watch that play out with some expected turbulence in the 1997 area.  I think today’s news might be a factor in these numbers.

The A/D lines continue to get weaker, but those quality stocks are still being bought as is the S&P, hence new highs. The NYSE put in 323 new highs yesterday.  Very strong.   We would like to see a test a of the 1684 area soon. 

That is what we will be watching today.

 

 

On The MiM

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Again, the MiM gave us a strong buy signal, but the market did not follow through and it did do a nasty shake in the middle of the close.  HRH Princess Kate had the inconvenience of birthing another royal during the close.  I am not sure if that triggered the news arbitrage machines, if people left their posts to check out the news or what, but we did get an annoying spike down.

I entered long a bit early and had to ride the tower of terror for a few minutes.  Once stabled, I did add and effective broke even on my first lot (made .25) and then a couple on the second.

You can see from the chart that the best trade was the Kate trade short, the best long was to wait for the close to absorb the buying.

We did some work overnight to make the MiM just a bit more mobile friendly, you might want to test that out and explore the menus as we have added more features.

Don’t miss the Webinar this Saturday.  You will be able to talk directly to those collecting the data and to me presenting the data.  It will be a learning experience for everyone.  I can’t wait to hear the questions.

Sign up at: http://mrtopstep.com/ghangout/the-mrtopstep-imbalance-meter-own-the-close/

 

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

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We are watching for 110 and the gap close, that means 108.75 needs to hold.  That should get a test today.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

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Bearish Divergent.


Cumulative Volume Index:

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Bullish

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

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Bullish


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

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323 new highs on the NYSE and we get a bit of weakness, that means we pick up some new lows.  Worth watching.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

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Bullish.


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
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Bullish.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

We are grinding these small moves higher. Pushing toward 1697 for our $ES_F next upper target

Today’s Economic News:

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Mostly quiet on the Eastern front.  In the US, watch the Existing Home sales.


Quote of the Day:
All good books are alike in that they are truer than if they had really happened.
–Ernest Hemingway

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

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This is the new high / new low chart.  It remains in trend up mode and very, very bullish.  

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1697
Long:  1680

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Creep, creep.  We are in the trending 4 points higher/low volatility mode that we ground through in May, set up again here in what has turned out to be a very, very hot July.  Today we have moved our highs up to the 1697 area with a test in the 1680 possible for the bears.

Watch that ATR, it is still running below 3.  If you missed my piece on Friday about the ATR and how I use it, you can read that here:

 

 

On the MiM:

 

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Confusion abounded on Friday as the MiM was showing a strong sell that we were trying to wave off as the Pfizer was a single $250MM sell side throwing off the MiM.  We were tweeting out on http://twitter.com/mrts_imbalance . Make sure if you are trading the MiM or following it that you have that on your radar also.  

 

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We are working the next version of the Meter and we will get it out this week, that will show the symbol count on the buy and sell side.  That will make it easier to pick up these divergences in order to evaluate the quality of the data. 

On Saturday we are doing a MiM presentation. We will be hearing from those on the NYSE that collect the data, those that trade the data, and I will be there also talking about our current product, how I trade it, and what is coming down the road.  It is an opportunity to learn more about the mechanics of the close, what the data means, and how you might interpret it.

To sign up for the MiM you can go to: http://mrtopstep.com/ghangout/the-mrtopstep-imbalance-meter-own-the-close/

Hope to see you all there with some questions.

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

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Double top on the 109.45 area, watch for 108.75 to hold and then a reach for 110. 

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

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Here is a good example of a higher market price with a lower Zweig.  Watch those new highs.


Cumulative Volume Index:

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Bullish.

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

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Bullish


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

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Chattering on the highs. Bullish. This is a focus chart again this week.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

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Bullish:


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
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Bullish.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Yesterday the bulls looked a bit tired, today… they have a new summit to hold $ES_F 1680 x 1625

Today’s Economic News:

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Great numbers out of Japan.  Don’t like those negative inflation numbers out of Germany.   Jobless claims and retail sales numbers are the potential tail wind for the bulls today.


Quote of the Day:
The real trap of fame is its irresistibility.
–Ingrid Bengis

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

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The Zweig gave us a bit of downside despite the market holding, as did the NH/NL chart.  This rally is just now starting to show some fraying.

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1680
Long:  1625

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Like a rat on a sinking ship, we climb our potential top higher yet again, this time to 1680.  That double top is still in play to that area at which point any retest to the downside will be worthy of noting, much like that 1595 area was.  We are just seeing a bit of fraying here only (ha) putting in 192 new highs.  We will continue to watch that and any stumble for the bull between here and 1680. 

On the MiM

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Great opportunities on the MiM, right at the time and location that most thought the plug was to be pulled on the markets, us meter readers had a little inside edge watching the buy side build.  Many managed to make money yesterday.  This is how it played out in the MTS IM-Pro trading room:

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A good solid performance for the MiM  giving us confidence on a hold and then a run, that has continued into this  morning.

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

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Looking for a run up to 108.75 and then that double bottom is in play on any test at 106, failure means the 105.25 area in our opinion.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

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Just a bit divergent.  This gap up today should be a real tell if the market can hold.


Cumulative Volume Index:

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Market looked tired yesterday and now it has been given a boost up, can it follow through?

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

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While all the other indicators were down a touch yesterday, this 40DPI made progress, that is that math advantage for the bulls at work now.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

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Just a touch of warning, today is about follow-through.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

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We have moved from correction to bullish again!


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
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Fat-Lady is now 2 days above the demarcation zone, that puts here as bullish.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs $ES_F 1634 x 1606

Today’s Economic News:

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Nothing really for news so far today… Everyone waiting for the Jobs numbers and again, it could be that good news is bad for the market as the Fed is trying hard to get us ready for some withdrawal.


Quote of the Day:
If you think nobody cares if you are alive, try missing a couple of car payments.
–Earl Wilson

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

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This is the Fat-Lady chart, our slow trender that, when below the dashed line (the 15 DMA), has us being bearish.  Above bullish.   You can see how we are running on a collision course over the next day or so.  The chart, with a couple of green days now, is officially neutral but remains on the bear’s side.    

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1634
Long:  1606

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We think today is a bit of a crap shoot.  Jobs numbers loom and we don’t know what they are nor do we know how the market will react.  We want to call 1625 right here right now as a possible high that should turn for more correction but that number today could put in some more adrenalin, so we are chickening out and looking now for 1634.  On the downside, the first rung below before the 1595 area is 1606.  We are looking for either of these to be hit.  We might not get there today, we do think there is a big move coming now or Monday.

On the MiM:

Ugh, these early close and mid-week closes do havoc on indicators and coders. We did get MiM data on the partial day, but it was light and what I think was unsanctionable.

 

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We took advantage of the day off to finish our auto-snapshot code so that I don’t have to do that Google spreadsheet each day.  These end of the day snapshots can be seen at http://closingimbalance.com/snaphshots-mim/ and they started on 7/1.

To remind people how to read my handy dandy table… the vertical axis on the left is time in minutes for the last hour of the market.  The next column over shows the snapshot of the buy/sell percentage of the indicator at the time.  We have the size of the imbalance on the next column and the value of the SPX index next to that.

The next section on the table starts the “trade matrix”.  The values along the top again are the minutes in the last hour of trading, those would be the times that an entry could be made.  So for example, taking the first trade matrix column labeled :00 (for us east-coasters that would be a 3:00PM ET entry column):  Tracking down that column, each row shows us how much the market moved for or against that 3:00 entry.  So entering at 3:00pm and exiting at 3:20pm could have given me 1.48 points.

The software finds and highlights the best trade in the matrix.  So our 3:00PM for Wednesday would have been the best entry if we had exited at 3:20pm.    If we held into the 2:40 time frame our trade would have turned negative.

The best shorting opportunity presented itself with a 3:20am entry and a 3:40pm exit giving us an opportunity for –1.85 points.

It is my way of analyzing the data compared to what the meter is reading.

Note that the snapshot data ended prematurely for Wednesday.  That matrix should extend to 4PM so we are missing :40 and :50 along the top.  That should be fixed today and the 7/1 and 7/2 data sets are complete if you want to take a look at those:  http://closingimbalance.com/snaphshots-mim/ 

Check that page after the close today and see if we get our first 100% auto-generated shot.  If not, I will not be a happy coder today.

About the data itself on the shortened day, it never really showed much size and languished around the 50% making it a no trade day for me.

We are in the planning stage of a MiM webinar featuring the gang from the NYSE floor filling in details on mechanics of the close, how we get our data, etc.  It will most likely be mid-July during the trading day.   Stay tuned!

 

Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:

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That 86 target for the dollar is looking more realistic as this money machine just keeps climbing higher and higher. Our next rung up is 84.46.  If we need to take a step back, watch 83.80.

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

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That doesn’t count.  We did not connect the dots here and are still missing that attack at 111.60.   These missing days create gappy charts so we need to watch trading today.

 

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

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We want to see more weakness, that will have to come on the jobs data today.


Cumulative Volume Index:

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Nothing really here.

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

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The number of stocks above their 40 DMA is still quite low… waiting to  see if the bulls can burst another big leg up.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

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This chart is quite strong suggesting that the bulls can do more damage on the upside.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

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Neutral.


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

Bearish-neutral.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.Go to LED Hut for more info on LED light bulbs for home

You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Shortened Hours Today… Shorten market $ES_F 1588 x 1606

Today’s Economic News:

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Decent numbers again out of Europe and the UK.  In the shortened trading day in the US we start jobs week and everything is getting squished.  The initial claims will be out today instead of tomorrow when the the market is closed all day.

Quote of the Day:
Victory is always possible for the person who refuses to stop fighting.
–Napoleon Hill

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

image

We would like some retesting on those lows, that would mean a turn in the Zweig.  So far, that is not happening.  Today would need to follow through to the downside.

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1506
Long:  1588

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The inability for the markets to climb up to 1620 resulting in selling down into the close, excepting a closing imbalance (read MiM below) that gave us a little push.

Two days ago, I mentioned that 1595 should be drawn on everyone’s charts.  Here we go again.   That is this early morning’s starting line.  The race is small today with the markets closing at 1PM ET, noon for my more centrist friends.

We have 1606 as a test for the next attempt higher.  If the bull can’t muster and break that, then down we should go through the 1595 with our downside targets of 1588 and 1583.

I can’t really remember the markets taking half days before the 4th of July before.  But they are, so we will be offline starting at 1pm and through until Friday morning.  Don’t forget that Friday is the all important jobs number.

Here in the USA we will be celebrating our Declaration of Independence from Britain some 230+ years ago.  Ben Franklin, in gathering the signers, is reported to have said, “ We must all hang together, or assuredly we shall all hang separately”.  Had the war been lost, most certainly that document would have been the death sentence to the signers.  They took risk. One year later they celebrated the day with bonfire, fireworks, and the ringing of bells, and that tradition will again be performed tomorrow.

On the MiM:

The MiM got some nice fan mail yesterday as it pegged hard to the buy side and never really budged.

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It was so hard pegged that I had a bit of doubt myself, especially after straying into a long around the 3:20 entry and taking some heat.   I did check with the data source and was assured that the data was accurate and flowing and as the market started to move in the direction of the imbalance I think we all felt better.

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The money trade was the 3:30 entry which yielded over 4. I got in at 4.25, managed to ride down 2.25 and then ride back up to 8.25 to take out 4, so there was 6 in there.  Remember, the snapshot is just that, it takes a picture and the window for that picture is sometime within that minute.  So there was more than six points available in yesterday’s trade.

NOTE:  Today is a shortened holiday and expect the MiM to be spitting out data around noon time today.  This is another learning experience as we have never done or been through a shortened day.  Watching and learning is never a bad idea.

 

 

Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:

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The dollar continues its climb,  Looking for 84.19 next to the upside or a test of 83.50.

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

image

Our destination of 111.60 is in view.  That leaves 110.50 and 109.50 as foundational points.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

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Looking for a turn to the downside.  Breadth remains in gathering mode for now, though.


Cumulative Volume Index:

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No Info.

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

Nothing here new. 


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

Bears are going to have to do better.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

We have the chart continuing bearish:


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

Still waiting for the definitive test here on the fat-lady.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Market seemed strong yesterday, not sure about the end.. sup with that? $ES_F 1625 x 1588.

Today’s Economic News:

image

Interest rates continue to rise around the globe, with deflation in commodities.  We don’t like the combination and would like to see a little inflation on both sides.


Quote of the Day:
Pessimist: One who, when he has the choice of two evils, chooses both.
–Oscar Fingall O’Flahertie Wills Wilde

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

image

Two things in hind-site have impressed us with yesterday’s price action.  First, the number of new 52 week highs blossomed and the number of stocks closing above their 40 day moving average  moved higher, suggesting that breadth is quite strong despite the closing price action.  We closed a Russell 2000 A/D line at 3.8:1, that is pretty strong.

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1625
Long:  1588

image

That head and shoulders target is now our next level up at 1620.  We are looking for a failure between here and there that will result in a spill down to the 1588 area.  Yesterday we called a 1620 high, that was decent and our line at 1606 seemed well placed, too.

MiM Update:

For my fellow meter readers, don’t forget that the markets close early on Wednesday (1pmET)  so the meter will be running starting around noon ET.  Markets are totally closed on Thursday.

 

image

It was all about confusion as the MiM bounced all over the place.  Started grossly on the negative side, swung toward positive and then back negative with small size.  Neither the percentage nor size dictated an advantage to either side.  That early imbalance seemed to reflect the market and that was the trade on an early entry and hold just shy of the close.  It would have been very difficult to do if screens were up as a 150MM buy side started to build.  In reality, there was no trade clearly dictated.  According to the rules, a lack of a signal favors the predominant trend which had been downside since noon.

I did take a closing trade and it clipped my wings, but it was mostly based on the bullish divergence on the ticks we were seeing going into the close.  I went long and that didn’t last very long.

image

 

Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:

image

This dollar chart remains strong, our next level up is the 83.80 area.

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

image

Watching for a touch to the 111.60 gap close.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

image

Looking still for that sub 50 reading.  


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

Nothing here.

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

Still recovering, in fact yesterday was a pretty wide spread recovery.  


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

Yesterday was a decent bullish-day breadth-wise despite the closing spill.  Our NHs/NLs chart did well and we managed to post 165 new highs on the day.  That is back in the saddle kind of numbers.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

For the first time since mid-May, the McClellan Oscillator is showing a bit of green (still bearish).


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

It looks like Fat-Lady is on a collision course with the 15DMA, the demarcation between our bull and bear attitude.  

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Happy July… Light the fireworks and strike up the band $ES_F 1620 x 1595

Today’s Economic News:

image

Mostly good out of Europe.  We are a little concerned about the manufacturing PMI slip out of Germany.  UK looks good.  In the US today we get the ISM data.  It is a holiday week this week in the USA.  Thursday the market is closed and Wednesday abbreviated.

Quote of the Day:
No mind is thoroughly well-organized that is deficient in a sense of humor.
–Samuel Taylor Coleridge

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

image

Getting hard to feature a chart, we are still looking at some recovery, but it is weaker than our last rallies.  The Fat-Lady indicator remains bearish, but she is starting to get a little green under her gills.  Watch for a test of the 15DMA if we rally over the next couple of days which I think is seasonally bullish.  

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1620
Long:  1595

image

Everyone should have a line on their charts at 1595 now. We called that area significant pre-market on Friday and it was repeatedly tested, raising its significance even higher.  We leave it as a level again today.   1625 is that head and shoulders target and we might just move up that 1620 target to coincide.  The US likes to rally into holidays and these next two days seem ready to do that.

Moving on to the MiM:

First, let’s look at the latest version of the MiM that all of you meter readers will have sometime this week.   It isn’t much different in looks except that we have added size and an SPX value to each of the snapshots.  It does refresh faster and it has a much better organized backend.

I wrote quite a bit about being excited to see a quarter close/imbalance and wanted to watch the meter into the close.  Quite a few wanted to join us in that and we thank you.    For those really new, those numbers were big.  On the buy side it was 1.9B and the close was 1.5B.  But the imbalance never really got above my threshold of 66.6%.

I did receive some confirmation seeking emails that we never really got a signal, right?  First, that statement scares me because there are no real signal rules, I am making up my rules based on observations and sharing them with you so you can confirm or be inspired or just go your own way.

image

In the disclosure of sharing, I want to make a couple of observations and then tell you how I traded on Friday.

1. The imbalance and quarter end numbers were big as predicted, they just did not materialize more on one side or the other.
2. The market was crazy up and down and up and down all day long in decent size swings, allowing both the buy and sell side to make trades in the market, hence balancing out before the close.
3. The market traded disappointed after the 3:45pm reveal as if it expected a huge buy side.

Remember, neither you nor I have traded through a closing quarter before so keep those notes and review them in September.

So on Friday, I am not sure if I broke my rules or not, but I did take a long trade for a few points.  Here is what maDe me go in long.  Shortly after 3:00pm the market sold down to 1603 on the ES yet we had a decent buy side showing.  As the market recovered around THE 3:20pm area I like to trade in, I though maybe I was shut out for the day.  Then the buy side really started coming in between 3:20 and 3:30.  We were building up to a 1B and the trigger percentage was getting close and I hated the price action for long so I took the long.  What I really like about the MiM is it makes me take trades that for years I would not take as price continuation is not my thing.  So around 3:25 the long at 1605.75 looked good.  That was a quick ride up and a funny thing happened on the way to 1609.50, the buy side started to become satisfied very quickly.  After a 2nd attempt to break 1609.50, I decided to take 1/2 and leave the other at the entry.  As the buy side dwindled more I closed the trade at 1606.50.

 

image

You can see that after the reveal the market slid about 10 points.  I did get some fan mail on Friday also thanking the MiM for keeping them out of the long side.

I was out of town all weekend, but I do want to roll up some stats on the MiM for our first month and I will be improving those stats for the second month.  This morning I did do a quick review for those 66.6% threshold traders.  Here is a really rough review.    I like the 3:20PM entry area so I did a quick run through this AM trading just 3:20pm entry into the close.

If you ignored the 66.6% threshold and traded the direction of the meter without looking at % into the close, you would have taken all 20 trades and been up about 2.7points for the month. With the data above, 3:20 was showing green on the meter so you entered long at 3:20 and took a –6.48 loss on the close. 

If, however, you only took trades that showed a bias above 66%, you would have had 10 signals for the month and taken home 20.9 points in profit.

So don’t feel bad if you sat on your hands on Friday, that would have worked out great if you traded that way the whole month.

 

 

 

Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:

image

Fiddling with the MiM comments and data has me behind so no comment.  Go dollar.

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

image

Watching for 111.60

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

image

 


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

 

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

 


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

 


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

We have the chart continuing bearish:


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

There is a test a coming.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

End of the quarter coming up… $ES_F 1597 x 1570

Today’s Economic News:

image

Only one piece of news for today outside the USA and that was fairly positive.  In the USA for today, look to the Auction at 1pm ET to see if rates are continuing to rise.

Quote of the Day:
An argument is the longest distance between two points of view.
–Dan Bennett

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

image

Yesterday we talked about the 40 DPI being in the bounce zone and we did get just a bit of a bounce.  We think there could be some wild swings sideways  over the rest of the week as the market works out these new prices.

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1597
Long:  1570

image

We think that the 1553 we put in on Monday should hold for a while as the market moves pretty violently over the next few days into the close of the quarter. For today, we have 1597 on the high.  Our pat on the back for the 1588 call yesterday.

We like the reversal pattern here and we can see targets all the way up to 1624.  Not sure we will get there though.  We really like the double touch on the 1570 area.  So while we expect upside movement bias, we expect that to be volatile and tradable in both directions.

MiM Update:

I get two kinds of meter mail everyday, and it doesn’t matter what the meter says.  The first kind goes “I killed it today, that meter is fantastic!”, and the 2nd version (the polite edition) “Is there something wrong with the meter, it didn’t seem to work”.

Here is yesterday’s meter and let’s talk about what happened:

image

Data came in a bit later than usual, just before 3pm, and it came in big to the sell side and just kept building up into the reveal.  (The Reveal is the 3:45pm ET NYSE MOC imbalance release).

When we get so imbalanced, we like to take that early entry around 3pm.  If you did short in there yesterday, you took some heat.  Even our 3:20 and 3:30 entries were tough.  King yesterday was the 3:40pm entry, a post reveal trade that would have scored you +5 on the short side.

What happened was we had low volume going into the closing hour.  The market was really choppy all afternoon and as we came back up to the highs again, the vast amount of shorts (the short bus is too full) started stopping out and buyers rode that 3pm rally up almost 6 points.  There was no regard to the reality that the market was going to have to close with a huge imbalance.

Remember, most traders or algos or arbitrators don’t have this data.  We do.  We can see what is coming.. They can’t until the reveal comes out and reality sets in and the market has to adjust into the close.  So don’t expect the market to always trend the early data.  Think about what is going to happen at the reveal.

We did get a note from the traders and owners of the data yesterday and here is what they said:

Our data predicts the 3:45 NYSE imbalance announcement.  There is a jump at 3:45 each day that correlates to the direction of the market from 3:45-4pm.  In particular, this relationship is most powerful on Fridays, options expirations, end of month, end of quarter, and rebalancing.

When the indicator is neutral- 50/50 ish, the 5bps jump from 3:44-3:45 may exist but will be hard to catch unless doing hft.  So for most they’ll want to just not take a directional bet.  On days like today where market looks to be going higher, 80% sell that grew to 93% sell says 1) don’t buy and 2) go short. 

Market went back to open price at close so would have made big money shorting the strength.

If you haven’t taken the plunge yet, you can read more and sign up at: http://closingimbalance.com

 

Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:

image

How’s that for a complete cycle?  An 80.60 bottom has gone up 3% back to the 83.15 area.  We would like to see 82.32 get tested before 83.42.

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

image

Watching a double bottom here at 107.35.  That 109 area just could not hold as money continues to flow out of TLT.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

image

We need to watch the next flows.


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

Not much here.

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

Taking a bounce in here today.  We think today should be up, too.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

The best we can use this chart for is to say there is no trade in place to the upside.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

We have the chart continuing bearish.


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

This move is getting pretty close to mirroring the correction in November and May from last year. 

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Taper Caper at 2pm ET $ES_F 1661 x 1632

Today’s Economic News:

image

Not a lot of news overnight.  Today, it is all about the Fed and taper so listen for the arrival of Ben around 2pm ET, you should hear the blades of his helicopter first.


Quote of the Day:
I went to a fight the other night and a hockey game broke out.
–Rodney Dangerfield

Game 4 Tonight! I am feeling a little bearish for the game…

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

image

There is the Zweig on a roll.  We have a nice move up. We are officially in a bear trend mode,  we need to see some selling kicking in soon.

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1661
Long:  1615

image

Our trending indicators remain bearish as we continue to move up in what is looking like a play to resolve the inverse heads and shoulders.   The market has moved a very nice 50+ points against the bears off the low, if we are to see the bearish trend hold, we need to get that selling vibe on and soon.  For today, we are looking toward a possible top in the 1661 area and then a progressive failure down to 1615.  That upside down head from the head and shoulders paints a fairly good picture of how volatile this market is either way and how it can move quickly for and against you.

Today is all about the Fed and the Taper-Caper.   Watch for market reaction to any news of a slow down in the QE drip that is currently helping to sustain growth and hence the markets.

MiM UPdate:

The MiM did its job and showed a decent sell going into the close.

image

Our handy dandy chart shows that short indeed was the trade and getting in early and leaving just before the bell would have given you around +3.  I was emailing with Ted and we traded together very early and both took +2 out of the trade.

image

If you don’t know what the MiM is, come on around this afternoon just before 3pm.  We are opening the doors today for everyone to get a sneak peak at meter reading going into the FOMC closing day.

http://closingimbalance.com

 

Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:

image

I just noticed that I chopped off the top or our Dollar chart this AM.  Our next target up is the 83.75 area. We do have some long from yesterday, which we have lightened considerably, and would take the rest off at 83.68, adding at 83.20 if given the chance.  Our longer term target on the dollar remains at 86.

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

image

Last week we sang “I see the bad TLT rising” and here it goes.  It played with the 119.20 area for a while, we think it could be in trouble for a while here as far as upside, but would like to see the 120s soon in order to put on some downside pressure to aid the bears.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

image

Ok sellers, where for art thou?


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

Nothing wrong here for the bulls.


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

This is still has a bit of a bearish divergence to it. 


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

It needs to start chattering in a small range to show trend resumption.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Bearish.


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

Here comes the test, the question is whether or not that roll of the 15 DMA is going to be a resistance point.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.