How long will this Bermuda High stick around? $ES_F 1693 x 1666

Today’s Economic News:

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Not sure why we are not getting the Europe news here. Ok data out of Japan and looking to see if we can keep the housing pressure up.


Quote of the Day:
Comedy is tragedy plus time.
–Carol Burnett

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

image

The top of the market appears to be doing a slow roll as the Zweig is below 50 for the fist time in July.   

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1693
Long:  1666

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The way I see it, the market is trading between 1693 and 1672,  both sides trying to get a strategic advantage.   Our short term trender has gone from Bullish to Neutral today and there is indication that some of the underpinnings are a bit weak. Yesterday I discussed the weakness for risk and again,like yesterday the Russell has laid low with an A/D line of nearly –4:1.   Our NYSE A/D line was almost 2.5:1 and that has the Zweig finally below 50.   For today, I would be watching that 1693 area for a bullish test.  Should it give, say 1695 or more, we would be very impressed, especially considering some of the weakness momentum we are seeing in the breadth charts.

On the ATR greater than 3 watch, you can see we have done a decent pullback, that actually favors the bulls just a bit in there.  If we decide to negatively move, then 1672 is clearly an area of interest and for us, 1666 is the line in the sand. 

Prices not rising may seem weak, but maintaining here is quite bullish.  The best the bears can do is about 1.5% back from the highs and today, despite the weaker A/D lines, we are closing in on just 0.5% back from the highs.  There is no room for a bear victory dance in here. The elevator has stalled indeed, now we will find out how strong the cable is.

I would like to see one more shake up and then some selling to come in for a bearish August, but we might just get this Bermuda high that stays in place for a few more weeks.

 

On The MiM:

The MiM just seemed boring yesterday.  I know we all want to open that URL http://closingimbalance.com and see a 90% 500MM signal to trade on.  It doesn’t happen that way every day and the MiM closing data was not impressive.  Don’t try and create a trade when there clearly isn’t one.

For those that have access to the MiM,  you were better off than most because you knew during the last hour that there wasn’t likely to be a big spill into the close, there was no MOC to fuel it… and knowing that there is nothing is something. Right?

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This is our new daily snapshot that now includes the percentage of symbols that are biased one way or another.  We have had a series of divergent data from the MiM where there symbols can be 3:1 in one direction and the dollar imbalance showing the other direction.  Even yesterday as we moved into the the close we had 62% of the symbols showing buy imbalances while the MiM was a neutral 53% with a small 28M positive imbalance showing.  The more lined up the market is, the more we like the trade.   The new data has been applied to all of July’s snapshots and is available to anyone for study. http://closingimbalance.com/snapshots-mim

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

image

Watching 107.  That 107.75 area failed not it is up to 107 to hold if we want to get to the 110 area.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

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Below 50! First time this month.


Cumulative Volume Index:

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CVI looking like it is beginning to think about rolling over.


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

Our 40 DPI, despite favorable math conditions, is really struggling.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

Bulls unable so far to regain their footing here .


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Bullish – Neutral with a one day red signal.  We need a few more to pull the bear card out.


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

Our longer term trender remains steadfastly bullish here.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Knocking on 1700 $ES_F, anyone home?

Today’s Economic News:

image

Not such happy news today for Asia and China and Japan closed down about 0.5%.  It is a different story in Europe and the markets there are up a percent. You can see the difference in the data above.  It’s all about the PMIs and the European one is improving and marched past the 50, the demarcation between expansion and contraction.


Quote of the Day:
Hit any user to continue.
–Fuzzel Fish Administration Page

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

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Despite a lack luster day yesterday, the NH/NL chart is telling us that there is plenty of bullish optimism.  I still would not be shorting this market, at least not yet.

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1700
Long:  1684

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We still think that 1700 is in the cards and here we are playing around 1693 again. PM numbers are the news of the day and the USA’s will be out at 9:00 am ET.  That should set an opening mood.  We are seeing increasing weakness on the closing imbalances, but those new highs… someone is buying.  That buying is going into lower risk as the N100 and the R2K lead the downside team yesterday as far as A/D lines go.  The NYSE managed to close at 1.3:1.  Positive at least.  We just think this market right now is too hot to short but that could change with an overreach by the bulls.   We expect to see 1684 tested at some point soon.

 

On the MiM:

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On Monday we had a decent size buy side imbalance, Tuesday it was a small sell side.   For those that went in, the trade was from the top of the hour to just before closing where we did a bit of a bounce.  If you timed it perfectly you could have taken 4.  I went in around 3:20 and managed to take a couple before closing out on what I saw as a weakening sell side imbalance.   Only the last few minutes of the day gave an opportunity for the buy side.   Today, we will watch the close again to see if this sell side begins to build as a trend.

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

image

So far our 108.75 is holding in principle.   Let’s see if we can’t get some momentum going for a reach to the 110 area.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

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The decrease of the Zweig is slowing.


Cumulative Volume Index:

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We remain accumulating on the positive side, though.  That is bullish.

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

Bullish.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

Very bullish.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

We have the chart continuing bearish:


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

Bullish

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

We are grinding these small moves higher. Pushing toward 1697 for our $ES_F next upper target

Today’s Economic News:

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Mostly quiet on the Eastern front.  In the US, watch the Existing Home sales.


Quote of the Day:
All good books are alike in that they are truer than if they had really happened.
–Ernest Hemingway

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

image

This is the new high / new low chart.  It remains in trend up mode and very, very bullish.  

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1697
Long:  1680

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Creep, creep.  We are in the trending 4 points higher/low volatility mode that we ground through in May, set up again here in what has turned out to be a very, very hot July.  Today we have moved our highs up to the 1697 area with a test in the 1680 possible for the bears.

Watch that ATR, it is still running below 3.  If you missed my piece on Friday about the ATR and how I use it, you can read that here:

 

 

On the MiM:

 

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Confusion abounded on Friday as the MiM was showing a strong sell that we were trying to wave off as the Pfizer was a single $250MM sell side throwing off the MiM.  We were tweeting out on http://twitter.com/mrts_imbalance . Make sure if you are trading the MiM or following it that you have that on your radar also.  

 

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We are working the next version of the Meter and we will get it out this week, that will show the symbol count on the buy and sell side.  That will make it easier to pick up these divergences in order to evaluate the quality of the data. 

On Saturday we are doing a MiM presentation. We will be hearing from those on the NYSE that collect the data, those that trade the data, and I will be there also talking about our current product, how I trade it, and what is coming down the road.  It is an opportunity to learn more about the mechanics of the close, what the data means, and how you might interpret it.

To sign up for the MiM you can go to: http://mrtopstep.com/ghangout/the-mrtopstep-imbalance-meter-own-the-close/

Hope to see you all there with some questions.

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

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Double top on the 109.45 area, watch for 108.75 to hold and then a reach for 110. 

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

image

Here is a good example of a higher market price with a lower Zweig.  Watch those new highs.


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

Bullish.

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

Bullish


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

Chattering on the highs. Bullish. This is a focus chart again this week.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Bullish:


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

Bullish.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Swing number three at 1680 on the E-Mini

Today’s Economic News:

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Great numbers out of the UK today… Watch what is happening in Philly.  Good news should equal good news with the Ben insurance policy.


Quote of the Day:
I haven’t spoken to my mother-in-law for eighteen months—I don’t like to interrupt her.
–Ken Dodd

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

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We took that 2nd stab up and we did move the Zweig.  Will our 3rd assault on 1680 work?

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1680
Long:  1650

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Assault number two was a no go at the 1680 level.  We have moved back just a bit.  I added the ATR (Average true range) about a week ago just out of curiosity.  The way I have it set up gives me the average move with globex over the last 2 days in a 60 minute window.  The answer is 2.81 and that is up from 2.5, so volatility is up, we would expect it to settle or trend down if we are in climb mode. 

Numbers are the same as yesterday, everything is the same except that the bulls made no headway, but neither did the bears.  That 1665 area seems defended as well as 1680 so watch for a break on either of those for confirmation and to see the market move to the next quantum level.

 

 

On the MiM

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Wasn’t much on the close yesterday as we just moved into it slowly.  We did know that they were not going to take it down much, so no spill on the close.  That is valuable information to have.  The trade was just before the reveal,  (3:45PM ET) when the NYSE numbers are made public, to go long with the MiM and then hold into the close gave you almost 2.   

Looking at this chart and watching the meter in action are really two different things.  As price is moving, the MiM is moving, you do get a sense of how the close is going to work.  Two days in a row we have “trending” MiM readings, which either strengthened in to a signal like yesterday, or weakened out of a signal as the day before.   I think we struggle most with those days.  We all want the 500M 90% buy.  That is a clear signal.  The trending days are a bit tougher to decipher, but there is data there and data worth having and knowing.

http://closingimbalance.com

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

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Destination has been reached on the TLT.  Watching for 110 to hold and a failure between here and there  to see how serious we are about 106.

 

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

image

Bulls need to find some more advancing stock.


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

No info here.

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

40 DPI in alignment with the bulls.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

Perfect new high recovery for the bulls back into the 90s.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Bullish


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

Bullish

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Bulls get another shot at $ES_F 1680… running start

Today’s Economic News:

image

China and Europe on the green today. Looking good.  In the US, watch the housing market and see if that is holding up to expectations.

Quote of the Day:
When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on.
–Franklin D. Roosevelt

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

image

The New Highs/ New Lows ratio chart did a bit of a pullback.  We still put on 184 new highs on the NYSE SEOcompany so it isn’t breaking down yet.  Good news out of Europe and Asia today, so watch the USA news and the housing numbers to see if this economy is still trending up.

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1680
Long:  1650

image

1680 is a tough nut.  We are seeing that and the bulls have pulled back just a bit (not much, not even 1%!).  That is a running start kind of move where the bulls want to run and take it higher.  That puts 1684 in play for the day and a good area to use as confirmation for a breakout. Breadth is very bullish and it is clear that the bears need to show some follow-through to yesterday.  Any doubt goes to the bulls without question.  We are on the lookout for serious reversal moves.  That hasn’t happened.

 

On the MiM:

image

You can see from the MiM snapshots that the early read was that a significant sell-side was developing, that was clearly erasing by 3:20 and in the final tally the MiM moved through neutral to the buy side.   That loss of the sell side signal and directional move was the setup for the best entry, a long around 3:20pm into the close that gave about 3 points.  For the early birds, the 3:00 entry with the meter and then an exit when the volume dropped below the 150MM number was the exit signal yielding about 2 points.

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

image

Last week we sang “I see the bad TLT rising” and here it goes.  It played with the 119.20 area for a while, we think it could be in trouble for a while here as far as upside, but would like to see the 120s soon in order to put on some downside pressure to aid the bears.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

image

A bit of weakness again on the Zweig.  We did have a negative NYSE line, so watch for bears to follow through, if they can.


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

No Info.


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

First negative day in a while.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

Needs to regain footing soon to resume trend status.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Bullish


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

Bullish.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Giving $ES_F 1680 the benefit of the doubt for now, if that breaks, think 1720

Today’s Economic News:

image

We like the year over year inflation numbers, but those month over month are a bit soft so we want to watch that UK and Germany can get it started again over the next few months. In the USA today we also get some inflation numbers and capacity utilization numbers at 9:15, pre market open.

Quote of the Day:
Comedy is tragedy plus time.
–Carol Burnett

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

image

Day 2 we are featuring the new high / new low chart.  I want the readers to understand that this market is super uber bullish and if we settle in here between 90 and 100 for a few days, this market could continue to rally to new highs in lower volatility.

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1680 / 1720
Long:  1650

image

This 1680 area is the ceiling upside for the market and the bulls.   If we can hold the prices here and keep putting in a large number of new highs in stocks (we did 318 NYSE new highs yesterday), we can begin another sustained leg moving up with lower volatility.  That is 180 degrees from what we said at the beginning of the month when we thought the summer was going to be sideways and choppy.  We can’t ignore the bullishness in this market and as we approach 1680, the bears will need to be seeing a lot of bullish breadth draining and volatility increasing if they’re hoping for a breakdown here.   So we sit back and watch how we trade from this level.

On the close and the MiM, we did see a slowdown in interest to get into this market, something different than Thursday and Friday.

On The MiM:

 

image

 

For me, the MiM was just neutral all through the close.  The sell side did build up toward the close and we were down just a bit on the hour, but it wasn’t wholesale selling, but more importantly, it was a display of clamoring to get in like we saw last Thursday and Friday.   The best short was at a 3:10pmET entry into the close and there was little opportunity to make money long.

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

image

Decision time on the TLT now.  It looks like if we don’t move the open today we should hit that 180.75, we closed it out yesterday at 108.67.   If we do start to get selling at the 1680 level, we should see a move up to that 109.50 area next.  If we do fail here, watch 106.50 and then 105 area.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

image

Strong


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

Just a bit of a bearish divergence, but otherwise looks ok.

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

Lower high trend line is worth watching on this chart. 


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

You already know what I think about this chart.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Bullish


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

Bullish

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Looking for signs of follow-through today, bearish divergence on the A/D lines. $ES_F 1680

Today’s Economic News:

image

Nothing from the Majors yet today.    USA will see some retail sales numbers and the NY Empire state should put the spin on the NY open today.


Quote of the Day:
The happiest couples are those who spell “us” with a capital “you.”
–Klare Provine

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

image

Featuring the New High / New Low charts.  They remain incredibly strong making it almost impossible to short this market.

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1680
Long:  1538

image

I am watching for that double top at the 1680 area to see how this run-away bull will react.  We like the 1650 area for a retest and, if that fails, a breakdown to the 1616 area, but for now, bull on.   If you doubt that, look at that these crazy closing imbalances!

 

On the MiM

 

image

We couldn’t believe our eyes as the close built.  99% buy side on the last reads on Friday.   Our signal came in on threshold at 3:10pm ET and that turned out to be the best entry spot giving an easy 5 points back in return.  That is not bad on a day that only saw a 5.75 point range going into the close.   It would have been hard to get stopped out on that closing trade.

We have a new week starting on the MiM.  You can follow along after the close by going to http://closingimbalance.com/snapshots-mim and see how the MiM performed for the subscribers that day.  It is usually complete with information about 5 minutes after the cash close. 

If you want to invest in your trading and see if the MiM would be a good addition to your bag of tools, you can sign up for a month for just $99. Even if you only do one month, learning the mechanics of the close is as important part of understanding the market.

 

 

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

image

We have been looking for that 108.75 on the upside as a stop to a bear flag.  The price is flagging so far so let’s watch for a touch in that area and see if we fail.  If we do, we are looking in the 105 area.

 

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

image

Our NYSE A/D line remained negative into the close.  That has set up a bearish divergence here.  Caution on aggressive longs is advised.


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

Volume followed through nicely.

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

The 40 DPI is also in line with the market


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

This we already know…


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Bullish


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

Bullish

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Oh, so close on a ZBT signal ! Breadth is uber-bullish, we need an overreach in that 1680 area to get any pullback $ES_F 1680

Today’s Economic News:

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Numbers out of Euro-world are still looking weak.  Watching Michigan today to see if we can get a spike up that might induce some profit-taking, that might, in turn, induce some shorts that might panic out some recently added weak longs hands and that is how a giant snowball is made. Or we just grind higher into the weekend.


Quote of the Day:
Many people take no care of their money till they come nearly to the end of it, and others do just the same with their time.
–Goethe

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

 

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We did get to the Zweig Overbought (>61.5) but it was not an official Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT). That play ended two days ago, but the target, a reading above 61.5 was hit yesterday and it completed in 12 days.  That makes this rally one of the strongest in the recovery and foretells more upside.  Very Strong.

 

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Look at those new highs, amazing and un-flinching for now.   I would not be shorting if those remain high.

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1680
Long:  1625

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We are anxious to see if we can get to that 1680 area and then more excited to see how we perform. For sure there will be some acrobatics there. For now we have this 1672 area as a fulfillment of what was a failed head and shoulders.   On the downside we have 1625 that we think needs another stepping on before we go too much higher.  Looking through the breadth charts the highs look a bit too exuberant and that means our best chance at see some selling is a big push up that overreaches and stalls, possibly on news or a thin short cover squeeze during slow hours.  Whether the selling can sustain in this bullish sentiment is another issue.  How about those closings? (They are buying).

On The MiM

 

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This was our 2nd day now with a very strong reading that was consistent through the entire on hour cycle of closing.  For those trading on the MiM, please understand that the data starts between 2:30 and 3:00pm ET. It starts when there is enough data to begin to push so it varies.  I don’t really like looking at the data until around 3pm when it is usually more complete.  It is a manual process to enter the data and it usually takes a little under 10 minutes to complete the cycle, so from when you first see data, watch how it is building, but give it some time.

Yesterday, marketwise, was a bit different than the day before reads when we were sitting away from the highs.   Yesterday we were on the highs, having trended up +20 all day long and it took a brave trader to add long with the MiM into the close.  There were opportunities on pullbacks and the 3:10pm entry seems to have been about the best timing looking at a 10 minute snapshot.

If you didn’t trade, and I don’t blame you, I would hope with such a MiM reading that you didn’t try and short the close. There is value in know what not to do also, saving 2 points on a dumb entry is worth $100 per.  That is a month right there for the MiM!

 

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

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We are watching today to see if we can hit that 108.75 area, that gap away at 110 has our eyes too,  but a failure at 108.75 should see us visiting the 105.50 area.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

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So we are overbought.. Wow,


Cumulative Volume Index:

 

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Volume making up a bit of lost ground.

NYSE Up/Down Volume Percent :

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Close but no cigar on the 9:1 up-day thrust yesterday.  It was very strong though.


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

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As is our 40 DPI.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

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See if this can settle into a trending pattern by staying above 90 now.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

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Bullish


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
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Bullish

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Yesterday the bulls looked a bit tired, today… they have a new summit to hold $ES_F 1680 x 1625

Today’s Economic News:

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Great numbers out of Japan.  Don’t like those negative inflation numbers out of Germany.   Jobless claims and retail sales numbers are the potential tail wind for the bulls today.


Quote of the Day:
The real trap of fame is its irresistibility.
–Ingrid Bengis

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

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The Zweig gave us a bit of downside despite the market holding, as did the NH/NL chart.  This rally is just now starting to show some fraying.

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1680
Long:  1625

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Like a rat on a sinking ship, we climb our potential top higher yet again, this time to 1680.  That double top is still in play to that area at which point any retest to the downside will be worthy of noting, much like that 1595 area was.  We are just seeing a bit of fraying here only (ha) putting in 192 new highs.  We will continue to watch that and any stumble for the bull between here and 1680. 

On the MiM

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Great opportunities on the MiM, right at the time and location that most thought the plug was to be pulled on the markets, us meter readers had a little inside edge watching the buy side build.  Many managed to make money yesterday.  This is how it played out in the MTS IM-Pro trading room:

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A good solid performance for the MiM  giving us confidence on a hold and then a run, that has continued into this  morning.

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

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Looking for a run up to 108.75 and then that double bottom is in play on any test at 106, failure means the 105.25 area in our opinion.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

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Just a bit divergent.  This gap up today should be a real tell if the market can hold.


Cumulative Volume Index:

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Market looked tired yesterday and now it has been given a boost up, can it follow through?

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

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While all the other indicators were down a touch yesterday, this 40DPI made progress, that is that math advantage for the bulls at work now.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

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Just a touch of warning, today is about follow-through.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

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We have moved from correction to bullish again!


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
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Fat-Lady is now 2 days above the demarcation zone, that puts here as bullish.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Double Peaks and Whack a Bull $ES_F 1650 x 1625

Today’s Economic News:

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News is ok for today.  Weaker numbers out of China than expected, but that is OK too.  Watch today for that 10am ET release of wholesale inventories and then again at 2pm ET the FOMC taper notes.    The bears are looking to take advantage of the dangerous double top and those seem like two events that could work in their favor.   Yesterday’s price action was a bit indecisive so the bulls are vulnerable today.


Quote of the Day:
We’re lucky poodles migrate south.
–Al

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

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New Highs remain the story as we move through earnings.  

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1661
Long:  1625

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Waiting… Waiting… Waiting… Waiting for the bears to show some fortitude.  Anything.  They have a shot here now at 1649 with a double top in place from the June 19th time frame.   We have 1661 as the next higher target here.  A failure down to the 1597 area and then a run back up would make a decent right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulder pattern.  For today, we wait to see if the market will just even pause here to see what the bears can do.  Read and look through today’s breadth charts, they are pretty strong looking and even the fat-lady, previously singing “go bears” is now starting to sing a swan song.

 

On the MiM:

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Data came in just before 3:00pm ET strong on the buy side and with volume.  That 3PM entry turned out to be the value point with a close of the trade when the buy side fell dramatically into the close.   The loss of the buy side advantage turned out to be the spot to put up the counter trade with a 3:40 exit.

On a technical note, we have finished switching over everyone to use the new meter, some of you needed to do a cache refresh (Ctrl F5)  in order to see a clean copy.  We did get a server disconnect yesterday from our symbol quote source (not our NYSE source) and that fouled up our data.  That error situation handling has been improved as of last night and the new back-end is now officially released.   If any of the meter readers are having issues, please contact me directly: marlin@mrtopstep.com.

Our MiM service is Premium and requires a subscription http://closingimbalance.com/subscription-options/

We have added the ability to see the NYSE Arca Opening & Closing imbalance.   These services are currently experimental as the data is mostly ETF based so, for instance, if traders are selling 40MM “double bond funds short” what does that mean for the markets?  We are building out some correlation tables to see if we can correct the data to be more useful. In the meantime, feel free to watch the data.

And for those that want to analyze the data, the MiM snapshots are currently open to everyone also: http://closingimbalance.com/snaphshots-mim/

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

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We are expecting to see some type of bear-flag action with an upward slope to the 108.75 area.  This is laying a bit flat right now this a.m.  If we do break down, we expect the next level down to be in the 105.24 area. 

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

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Bears can not string anything together to make a move.  They need to push the Zweig below 50.


Cumulative Volume Index:

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Volume is just a bit bearishly diverged now, but not much.  Pretty good stuff the bulls are showing.

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

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40 DPI showing that math advantage we have been talking about, now up to 43.73% on the double top. 


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

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As Linda Ronstadt would say, don’t it make my bear eyes blue, as in sad.  These new highs indicate the sentiment of investors  to chase stocks into earnings.  282 NYSE new highs yesterday.  We are just pushing it higher and higher. 


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

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This move have been so fast that even our short-term trender has not turned neutral yet.  It remains bearish.


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
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And the fat-Lady has her first day in Bull territory so the bears today need to play whack-a-bull in order to stop this cross.  Watch that double top!

 

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.