Today’s Economic News:
So just when you think Europe is doing great, in comes that negative retails sales and GDP. UK looking better. In the USA today, it is GDP and factory orders. Those should be movers.
Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:
The Zweig is fairly weak and our call for safe swim isn’t taking hold. We do want to see a test higher just to get a feel for the conviction of the bears and the anxiousness of the bulls.
Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:
Triple bottom, what is that adage? There is no such thing as a triple bottom? We did expect to get a bounce, it didn’t happen. It might today, I hope so because it would help reveal so much. We are keeping the landing zone at 1612 for now and it is looking more and more like the market wants down.
I did a guest piece for the MrTopStep MiM today, you can go to the opening print and get more details about the MiM.
Here is the synopsis from my cool closing trade chart. The best trade was an entry long at 3:20pm ET with an exit at 3:40pm just before the pubic MOC orders are published. Here is what we saw: by 3pm a very decent and strong buy-side imbalance was building, and that peaked around 3:10 at 85% and I am favoring that 3:20 entry time so I took a flyer on the NQ. Not too long after that the market started to run and as it ran up, the imbalance started to bleed off, almost down to the point of noise. (I have a model in my head that anything under 67% either way is sorta neutral). So with a nice 6 point SPX run and a waning buy-side imbalance, it was time to leave the trade.
The MiM is so new that there is no owners manual, but it is pretty simple to read and to build up the conviction and confidence side. The story on the close was indecision with a 6 point run able to wipe out all the buy side and to attract sellers. In other words, there are sellers looking to get out.
Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:
We wanted that 82.63 to hold before getting all bullish again. With weaker data out of Europe today we like the dollar longer again.
Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):
Still no fear yet and TLT having a hard time finding some solid ground to bounce. We are targeting the 112.50 area as a next possible hold.
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Breadth Charts in Full :
Zweig Breadth Thrust:
Weak, today will be a good test with a gap-down opening.
Cumulative Volume Index:
No info here.
Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):
Getting down into negative 40 territory, that produced the last bounce.
New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :
Bouncing on the NHs/NLs.
Short Term Trender – McClellan Summation Index:
Fat lady is officially bearish, but we would like that test.
Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader
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