Looking for signs of follow-through today, bearish divergence on the A/D lines. $ES_F 1680

Today’s Economic News:

image

Nothing from the Majors yet today.    USA will see some retail sales numbers and the NY Empire state should put the spin on the NY open today.


Quote of the Day:
The happiest couples are those who spell “us” with a capital “you.”
–Klare Provine

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

image

Featuring the New High / New Low charts.  They remain incredibly strong making it almost impossible to short this market.

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1680
Long:  1538

image

I am watching for that double top at the 1680 area to see how this run-away bull will react.  We like the 1650 area for a retest and, if that fails, a breakdown to the 1616 area, but for now, bull on.   If you doubt that, look at that these crazy closing imbalances!

 

On the MiM

 

image

We couldn’t believe our eyes as the close built.  99% buy side on the last reads on Friday.   Our signal came in on threshold at 3:10pm ET and that turned out to be the best entry spot giving an easy 5 points back in return.  That is not bad on a day that only saw a 5.75 point range going into the close.   It would have been hard to get stopped out on that closing trade.

We have a new week starting on the MiM.  You can follow along after the close by going to http://closingimbalance.com/snapshots-mim and see how the MiM performed for the subscribers that day.  It is usually complete with information about 5 minutes after the cash close. 

If you want to invest in your trading and see if the MiM would be a good addition to your bag of tools, you can sign up for a month for just $99. Even if you only do one month, learning the mechanics of the close is as important part of understanding the market.

 

 

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

image

We have been looking for that 108.75 on the upside as a stop to a bear flag.  The price is flagging so far so let’s watch for a touch in that area and see if we fail.  If we do, we are looking in the 105 area.

 

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

image

Our NYSE A/D line remained negative into the close.  That has set up a bearish divergence here.  Caution on aggressive longs is advised.


Cumulative Volume Index:

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Volume followed through nicely.

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

The 40 DPI is also in line with the market


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

This we already know…


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Bullish


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

Bullish

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Oh, so close on a ZBT signal ! Breadth is uber-bullish, we need an overreach in that 1680 area to get any pullback $ES_F 1680

Today’s Economic News:

image

Numbers out of Euro-world are still looking weak.  Watching Michigan today to see if we can get a spike up that might induce some profit-taking, that might, in turn, induce some shorts that might panic out some recently added weak longs hands and that is how a giant snowball is made. Or we just grind higher into the weekend.


Quote of the Day:
Many people take no care of their money till they come nearly to the end of it, and others do just the same with their time.
–Goethe

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

 

image

 

We did get to the Zweig Overbought (>61.5) but it was not an official Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT). That play ended two days ago, but the target, a reading above 61.5 was hit yesterday and it completed in 12 days.  That makes this rally one of the strongest in the recovery and foretells more upside.  Very Strong.

 

image

Look at those new highs, amazing and un-flinching for now.   I would not be shorting if those remain high.

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1680
Long:  1625

image

We are anxious to see if we can get to that 1680 area and then more excited to see how we perform. For sure there will be some acrobatics there. For now we have this 1672 area as a fulfillment of what was a failed head and shoulders.   On the downside we have 1625 that we think needs another stepping on before we go too much higher.  Looking through the breadth charts the highs look a bit too exuberant and that means our best chance at see some selling is a big push up that overreaches and stalls, possibly on news or a thin short cover squeeze during slow hours.  Whether the selling can sustain in this bullish sentiment is another issue.  How about those closings? (They are buying).

On The MiM

 

image

This was our 2nd day now with a very strong reading that was consistent through the entire on hour cycle of closing.  For those trading on the MiM, please understand that the data starts between 2:30 and 3:00pm ET. It starts when there is enough data to begin to push so it varies.  I don’t really like looking at the data until around 3pm when it is usually more complete.  It is a manual process to enter the data and it usually takes a little under 10 minutes to complete the cycle, so from when you first see data, watch how it is building, but give it some time.

Yesterday, marketwise, was a bit different than the day before reads when we were sitting away from the highs.   Yesterday we were on the highs, having trended up +20 all day long and it took a brave trader to add long with the MiM into the close.  There were opportunities on pullbacks and the 3:10pm entry seems to have been about the best timing looking at a 10 minute snapshot.

If you didn’t trade, and I don’t blame you, I would hope with such a MiM reading that you didn’t try and short the close. There is value in know what not to do also, saving 2 points on a dumb entry is worth $100 per.  That is a month right there for the MiM!

 

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

image

We are watching today to see if we can hit that 108.75 area, that gap away at 110 has our eyes too,  but a failure at 108.75 should see us visiting the 105.50 area.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

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So we are overbought.. Wow,


Cumulative Volume Index:

 

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Volume making up a bit of lost ground.

NYSE Up/Down Volume Percent :

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Close but no cigar on the 9:1 up-day thrust yesterday.  It was very strong though.


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

As is our 40 DPI.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

See if this can settle into a trending pattern by staying above 90 now.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Bullish


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

Bullish

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Double Peaks and Whack a Bull $ES_F 1650 x 1625

Today’s Economic News:

image

News is ok for today.  Weaker numbers out of China than expected, but that is OK too.  Watch today for that 10am ET release of wholesale inventories and then again at 2pm ET the FOMC taper notes.    The bears are looking to take advantage of the dangerous double top and those seem like two events that could work in their favor.   Yesterday’s price action was a bit indecisive so the bulls are vulnerable today.


Quote of the Day:
We’re lucky poodles migrate south.
–Al

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

image

New Highs remain the story as we move through earnings.  

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1661
Long:  1625

image

Waiting… Waiting… Waiting… Waiting for the bears to show some fortitude.  Anything.  They have a shot here now at 1649 with a double top in place from the June 19th time frame.   We have 1661 as the next higher target here.  A failure down to the 1597 area and then a run back up would make a decent right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulder pattern.  For today, we wait to see if the market will just even pause here to see what the bears can do.  Read and look through today’s breadth charts, they are pretty strong looking and even the fat-lady, previously singing “go bears” is now starting to sing a swan song.

 

On the MiM:

image

Data came in just before 3:00pm ET strong on the buy side and with volume.  That 3PM entry turned out to be the value point with a close of the trade when the buy side fell dramatically into the close.   The loss of the buy side advantage turned out to be the spot to put up the counter trade with a 3:40 exit.

On a technical note, we have finished switching over everyone to use the new meter, some of you needed to do a cache refresh (Ctrl F5)  in order to see a clean copy.  We did get a server disconnect yesterday from our symbol quote source (not our NYSE source) and that fouled up our data.  That error situation handling has been improved as of last night and the new back-end is now officially released.   If any of the meter readers are having issues, please contact me directly: marlin@mrtopstep.com.

Our MiM service is Premium and requires a subscription http://closingimbalance.com/subscription-options/

We have added the ability to see the NYSE Arca Opening & Closing imbalance.   These services are currently experimental as the data is mostly ETF based so, for instance, if traders are selling 40MM “double bond funds short” what does that mean for the markets?  We are building out some correlation tables to see if we can correct the data to be more useful. In the meantime, feel free to watch the data.

And for those that want to analyze the data, the MiM snapshots are currently open to everyone also: http://closingimbalance.com/snaphshots-mim/

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

image

We are expecting to see some type of bear-flag action with an upward slope to the 108.75 area.  This is laying a bit flat right now this a.m.  If we do break down, we expect the next level down to be in the 105.24 area. 

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

image

Bears can not string anything together to make a move.  They need to push the Zweig below 50.


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

Volume is just a bit bearishly diverged now, but not much.  Pretty good stuff the bulls are showing.

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

40 DPI showing that math advantage we have been talking about, now up to 43.73% on the double top. 


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

As Linda Ronstadt would say, don’t it make my bear eyes blue, as in sad.  These new highs indicate the sentiment of investors  to chase stocks into earnings.  282 NYSE new highs yesterday.  We are just pushing it higher and higher. 


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

This move have been so fast that even our short-term trender has not turned neutral yet.  It remains bearish.


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

And the fat-Lady has her first day in Bull territory so the bears today need to play whack-a-bull in order to stop this cross.  Watch that double top!

 

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Double top 1650 $ES_F? Somewhere there is a bear

Today’s Economic News:

image

Now the UK is going all soft on us.  That should be more fuel for the dollar.

Quote of the Day:
Keep your fears to yourself, but share your inspiration with others.
–Robert Louis Stevenson

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

image

We continue to operate under the impression that there is more downside testing to go and are awaiting a sign, any sign, that this low volume rally is petering out. We haven’t had it yet and and are now eyeing the 1650 area for a double top potential.  Today’s featured chart is the Fat-Lady,  our slow, lazy trender that, when below the dashed line (the 15 day moving average of itself), indicates that the market is in a bearish trend, above bullish.   We like a two day filter before we change our direction to eliminate some chop.  We are now one day above and we are thinking a good day today will have our head spinning.  We would like to see something negative on the books for what has been the most bullish day of the week, Terrific Tuesdays.

 

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1649
Long:  1625

image

Read more in the featured chart of the day to understand my sentiment. Looking to see if there is power in this double top at that 1650 area.  We like 1625 on as a resting spot for any regression the market might want to do from here.  We wait patiently, looking for a crack, but those new highs!  280 on the NYSE yesterday.  There are anxious buyers that want to be part of this market and despite the fact that prices are as high as they have been in years, buyers still persist in thinking that soft spots, like we are seeing in Europe right now, are worth the risk.

Thank you to all those that pointed out that peddling is something that I do when I tell you to buy a month on the MiM and try it out and that pedaling is something you do to ride a bike.   I still have my training wheels on when it comes to using the great language we have evolved.

 

Yesterday on the MiM:

I did recover from Friday’s archive data loss and that post is now complete and we think the auto-snapshot function is working.  To see the snapshots so far for the Month of July you can go to : http://closingimbalance.com/snaphshots-mim/

For yesterday, our chart turned out like this:

image

So while I did get signals that I liked (> 66%), and size (>150MM), the movement was just painfully slow.  The best short was only 1.5 points from a 3:00PM ET entry to a 3:30 exit.  When we did finally get signals, a long with the meter would have netted just shy of the 1.5.

So not much to be gained, but it was good to see size coming back in as we figure out how to trade this thing into the summer.

 

 

 

Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:

 

I have chart issues today and don’t have any DX comments.

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

image

Our swing area on the TLT, a tilt-a-whirl, has now set up to the top side at 108.75 and the downside to 105.25.  We would expect some bear-flag behavior in here with a slow retrace up to that 108.75 area.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

image

We are awaiting signs that there are still bears out there.  We need one of those to be a sub-40 on the Zweig 


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

The lack of volume on this run up is the only bear-likeable thing in the charts today.

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

We mentioned yesterday that over the next 40 days the math gets easier for this chart


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

Nothing bearish in this chart.  It needs a major breakdown back below 10.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

The McClellan is slowing coming back to bullish, but it doesn’t seem to be in a hurry and it has some issues to resolve.  This is one of the reasons we like a continued correction call.


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

This was our featured chart of the day.  Watching its reaction to the teat now.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Bears at the cross road, they need to show some control. $ES_F 1650 x 1620

Today’s Economic News:

image

What happened?  All of a sudden our news is turning more negative out of Europe.  That Bubil auction put rates back into the negative column.  We don’t like that one bit.


Quote of the Day:
The hunger for love is much more difficult to remove than the hunger for bread.
–Mother Teresa

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

image

We are pretty impressed with the NH/NL chart and how it is holding up on this rally.  We will continue to watch for improvement as the market improves.

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1650
Long:  1620

image

Here is our thinking.  The currents are all over the place. We are definitely on the road to recovery and it is like riding a two wheel bike.  The big boy, big girl kind of bike.   Those training wheels have helped but it is time to raise them just a bit.  That scares us cause even though those two little wheels in the back offer just a bit of stability, it has become our support on many an occasion and raising them brings up fear because those slots are just so big and we can raise them only so far before they are removed totally.  We know the day is coming.  So we kind of welcome those awkward moments where we tip as it staves off the day when we must stand on our own.

At some point in life the wheels do come off and we do eventually fly on our bikes doing moves and maneuvers we didn’t think we would ever master. So, too, will this economy.  But in the mean time, good news becomes bad for the market and bad news slows the threat of “tapering”.  These cross currents and thresholds are different for everyone so the market becomes chopped up in violent moves as data and timing are interpreted through the eyes of thousands and thousands of traders, investors, and managers.

We think the summer will be full of ups and downs and that this current up is disposed to become a future down with that future not so far away.  Perhaps a double top at 1650?

For now we have 1650 as the next potential turning point with buyer support at 1620.

 

MiM Update:

Embarrassed.  I lost Friday’s data and if any of you read this and have the snapshot values I would be eternally grateful.   These holiday weeks are tough and it feels good to be back to routine. I like routine.

Basically, to review, Friday’s data hovered around 50%.  There was no size to the data.  I thought the new auto-snapshot was all set, it wasn’t, and the data was lost in a java script error.

The meter did work until close however, but I didn’t get any  “wow great!” nor any “what the heck” ones either.  So I don’t think anyone traded on the meter.  I am expecting that we can put it to work this week.

 

 

Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:

image

As Europe flounders, the dollar continues to try and run to that 86 level.  We have 85 as next rung up and a test at 84.10 likely.

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

image

Where is all the money going?  Rates are arising.  We do expect one more run at lower rates, but that will require fear and the loss of the market momentum that has hit over the last few days.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

image

Where is our less than 50?  This next few days will be a good barometer of the summer market.  


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

Prices are rising, but the chasing volume is not so impressive here.


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

36 percent of stocks are above their 40 DMA.  As we move through mid-may, math is going to get easier as the 40 DMA begins to really start moving down.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

We want to be full bear and start laying on the swing short from here, but this chart keeps us nervous.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Bearish.


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

If we can hold green or maybe even slightly red, this will be the day that the Fat-lady is touched.   This is the test level right now for the bears.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs $ES_F 1634 x 1606

Today’s Economic News:

image

Nothing really for news so far today… Everyone waiting for the Jobs numbers and again, it could be that good news is bad for the market as the Fed is trying hard to get us ready for some withdrawal.


Quote of the Day:
If you think nobody cares if you are alive, try missing a couple of car payments.
–Earl Wilson

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

image

This is the Fat-Lady chart, our slow trender that, when below the dashed line (the 15 DMA), has us being bearish.  Above bullish.   You can see how we are running on a collision course over the next day or so.  The chart, with a couple of green days now, is officially neutral but remains on the bear’s side.    

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1634
Long:  1606

image

We think today is a bit of a crap shoot.  Jobs numbers loom and we don’t know what they are nor do we know how the market will react.  We want to call 1625 right here right now as a possible high that should turn for more correction but that number today could put in some more adrenalin, so we are chickening out and looking now for 1634.  On the downside, the first rung below before the 1595 area is 1606.  We are looking for either of these to be hit.  We might not get there today, we do think there is a big move coming now or Monday.

On the MiM:

Ugh, these early close and mid-week closes do havoc on indicators and coders. We did get MiM data on the partial day, but it was light and what I think was unsanctionable.

 

image

We took advantage of the day off to finish our auto-snapshot code so that I don’t have to do that Google spreadsheet each day.  These end of the day snapshots can be seen at http://closingimbalance.com/snaphshots-mim/ and they started on 7/1.

To remind people how to read my handy dandy table… the vertical axis on the left is time in minutes for the last hour of the market.  The next column over shows the snapshot of the buy/sell percentage of the indicator at the time.  We have the size of the imbalance on the next column and the value of the SPX index next to that.

The next section on the table starts the “trade matrix”.  The values along the top again are the minutes in the last hour of trading, those would be the times that an entry could be made.  So for example, taking the first trade matrix column labeled :00 (for us east-coasters that would be a 3:00PM ET entry column):  Tracking down that column, each row shows us how much the market moved for or against that 3:00 entry.  So entering at 3:00pm and exiting at 3:20pm could have given me 1.48 points.

The software finds and highlights the best trade in the matrix.  So our 3:00PM for Wednesday would have been the best entry if we had exited at 3:20pm.    If we held into the 2:40 time frame our trade would have turned negative.

The best shorting opportunity presented itself with a 3:20am entry and a 3:40pm exit giving us an opportunity for –1.85 points.

It is my way of analyzing the data compared to what the meter is reading.

Note that the snapshot data ended prematurely for Wednesday.  That matrix should extend to 4PM so we are missing :40 and :50 along the top.  That should be fixed today and the 7/1 and 7/2 data sets are complete if you want to take a look at those:  http://closingimbalance.com/snaphshots-mim/ 

Check that page after the close today and see if we get our first 100% auto-generated shot.  If not, I will not be a happy coder today.

About the data itself on the shortened day, it never really showed much size and languished around the 50% making it a no trade day for me.

We are in the planning stage of a MiM webinar featuring the gang from the NYSE floor filling in details on mechanics of the close, how we get our data, etc.  It will most likely be mid-July during the trading day.   Stay tuned!

 

Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:

image

That 86 target for the dollar is looking more realistic as this money machine just keeps climbing higher and higher. Our next rung up is 84.46.  If we need to take a step back, watch 83.80.

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

image

That doesn’t count.  We did not connect the dots here and are still missing that attack at 111.60.   These missing days create gappy charts so we need to watch trading today.

 

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

image

We want to see more weakness, that will have to come on the jobs data today.


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

Nothing really here.

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

The number of stocks above their 40 DMA is still quite low… waiting to  see if the bulls can burst another big leg up.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

This chart is quite strong suggesting that the bulls can do more damage on the upside.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Neutral.


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

Bearish-neutral.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.Go to LED Hut for more info on LED light bulbs for home

You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Shortened Hours Today… Shorten market $ES_F 1588 x 1606

Today’s Economic News:

image

Decent numbers again out of Europe and the UK.  In the shortened trading day in the US we start jobs week and everything is getting squished.  The initial claims will be out today instead of tomorrow when the the market is closed all day.

Quote of the Day:
Victory is always possible for the person who refuses to stop fighting.
–Napoleon Hill

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

image

We would like some retesting on those lows, that would mean a turn in the Zweig.  So far, that is not happening.  Today would need to follow through to the downside.

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1506
Long:  1588

image

The inability for the markets to climb up to 1620 resulting in selling down into the close, excepting a closing imbalance (read MiM below) that gave us a little push.

Two days ago, I mentioned that 1595 should be drawn on everyone’s charts.  Here we go again.   That is this early morning’s starting line.  The race is small today with the markets closing at 1PM ET, noon for my more centrist friends.

We have 1606 as a test for the next attempt higher.  If the bull can’t muster and break that, then down we should go through the 1595 with our downside targets of 1588 and 1583.

I can’t really remember the markets taking half days before the 4th of July before.  But they are, so we will be offline starting at 1pm and through until Friday morning.  Don’t forget that Friday is the all important jobs number.

Here in the USA we will be celebrating our Declaration of Independence from Britain some 230+ years ago.  Ben Franklin, in gathering the signers, is reported to have said, “ We must all hang together, or assuredly we shall all hang separately”.  Had the war been lost, most certainly that document would have been the death sentence to the signers.  They took risk. One year later they celebrated the day with bonfire, fireworks, and the ringing of bells, and that tradition will again be performed tomorrow.

On the MiM:

The MiM got some nice fan mail yesterday as it pegged hard to the buy side and never really budged.

image

It was so hard pegged that I had a bit of doubt myself, especially after straying into a long around the 3:20 entry and taking some heat.   I did check with the data source and was assured that the data was accurate and flowing and as the market started to move in the direction of the imbalance I think we all felt better.

image

The money trade was the 3:30 entry which yielded over 4. I got in at 4.25, managed to ride down 2.25 and then ride back up to 8.25 to take out 4, so there was 6 in there.  Remember, the snapshot is just that, it takes a picture and the window for that picture is sometime within that minute.  So there was more than six points available in yesterday’s trade.

NOTE:  Today is a shortened holiday and expect the MiM to be spitting out data around noon time today.  This is another learning experience as we have never done or been through a shortened day.  Watching and learning is never a bad idea.

 

 

Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:

image

The dollar continues its climb,  Looking for 84.19 next to the upside or a test of 83.50.

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

image

Our destination of 111.60 is in view.  That leaves 110.50 and 109.50 as foundational points.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

image

Looking for a turn to the downside.  Breadth remains in gathering mode for now, though.


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

No Info.

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

Nothing here new. 


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

Bears are going to have to do better.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

We have the chart continuing bearish:


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

Still waiting for the definitive test here on the fat-lady.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Market seemed strong yesterday, not sure about the end.. sup with that? $ES_F 1625 x 1588.

Today’s Economic News:

image

Interest rates continue to rise around the globe, with deflation in commodities.  We don’t like the combination and would like to see a little inflation on both sides.


Quote of the Day:
Pessimist: One who, when he has the choice of two evils, chooses both.
–Oscar Fingall O’Flahertie Wills Wilde

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

image

Two things in hind-site have impressed us with yesterday’s price action.  First, the number of new 52 week highs blossomed and the number of stocks closing above their 40 day moving average  moved higher, suggesting that breadth is quite strong despite the closing price action.  We closed a Russell 2000 A/D line at 3.8:1, that is pretty strong.

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1625
Long:  1588

image

That head and shoulders target is now our next level up at 1620.  We are looking for a failure between here and there that will result in a spill down to the 1588 area.  Yesterday we called a 1620 high, that was decent and our line at 1606 seemed well placed, too.

MiM Update:

For my fellow meter readers, don’t forget that the markets close early on Wednesday (1pmET)  so the meter will be running starting around noon ET.  Markets are totally closed on Thursday.

 

image

It was all about confusion as the MiM bounced all over the place.  Started grossly on the negative side, swung toward positive and then back negative with small size.  Neither the percentage nor size dictated an advantage to either side.  That early imbalance seemed to reflect the market and that was the trade on an early entry and hold just shy of the close.  It would have been very difficult to do if screens were up as a 150MM buy side started to build.  In reality, there was no trade clearly dictated.  According to the rules, a lack of a signal favors the predominant trend which had been downside since noon.

I did take a closing trade and it clipped my wings, but it was mostly based on the bullish divergence on the ticks we were seeing going into the close.  I went long and that didn’t last very long.

image

 

Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:

image

This dollar chart remains strong, our next level up is the 83.80 area.

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

image

Watching for a touch to the 111.60 gap close.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

image

Looking still for that sub 50 reading.  


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

Nothing here.

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

Still recovering, in fact yesterday was a pretty wide spread recovery.  


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

Yesterday was a decent bullish-day breadth-wise despite the closing spill.  Our NHs/NLs chart did well and we managed to post 165 new highs on the day.  That is back in the saddle kind of numbers.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

For the first time since mid-May, the McClellan Oscillator is showing a bit of green (still bearish).


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

It looks like Fat-Lady is on a collision course with the 15DMA, the demarcation between our bull and bear attitude.  

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

End of the Quarter, End of the Month, Rebalancing Friday… Quadruple MiM day $ES_F 1620 x 1595

Today’s Economic News:

image

Big post of Economic data. Today was the day of the rising sun as Japan released more than a dozen numbers that were all generally good.  We don’t like the zero or negative inflation, but there are signs of growth and expansion and we like that.

In the USA today is the 9:45am ET release of the Chicago PMI.  For those that pay to peek, they get it at 9:42am so that is the time to be watching for price action.

Quote of the Day:
Discovery consists of seeing what everybody has seen and thinking what nobody has thought.
–Albert Szent–Gyorgyi de Nagyraolt

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

image

We will end the week looking at the Zweig and a fantastic recovery above the 50’s.  We don’t think the sky is all blue just yet and would want to see another Zweig push below 50.

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1620
Long:  1595

image

Recovery week is almost over. Today will be the re-balance at the close and the close of the quarter.  A good time to be on that closing imbalance meter.

It is also the start of the summer trading season.  We are closed early on Wednesday, the 3rd and then all day on the 4th.  So volumes will be down for the next few weeks, but we are not sure what volatility will be.  We need to wait and see about that.

For today, we think the market is running out of steam here at the 1612 area, we have an eight point safety cap on it up to 1620. On the downside, we would like to see a tag of 1595 and then take a peek at breadth to see what it looks like in arriving there.

The MTS Closing Imbalance Meter

MiM Update:
RedlionTrader

I write a MiM blog entry everyday on the MrTopStep site: http://closingimbalance.com/category/blog/ .  Today, it is included in the Opening print because today is a special day and should be good for us meter readers.  We source our data from  a trading group off the NYSE.  This is what they wrote us earlier this week:

 

Our data predicts the 3.45 NYSE imbalance announcement.  There is a jump at 3.45 each day that correlates to the direction of the market from 3.45-4pm.  In particular this relationship is most powerful on Fridays, options expirations, end of month, end of quarter, and rebalancing.

Today  we have a Friday, end of month, end of quarter and rebalancing day!   Hope to see you on the meter.

http://closingimbalance.com

 

Reviewing yesterday:

image

The day was tight all day post open and stayed tight into the close.  The MiM was negative and again we saw a run up into the reveal and then finally the selling took place.   We adjusted from two days ago and sold around the 3:30pm time frame and managed to squeeze out 2, so positive but not the 8 points that we would like.

That should change today, it is quarter end and rebalance time.  At the end of May, we had a clear sell signal that was good for around 8 points, we would like to see that again today.

The data source  tells us that this is the day to own the MiM… The pay day.  I am anxious  to see what we get here today. If you are not part of the MiM it is not too late to signup:

http://closingimbalance.com

 

 

Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:

image

We see the stall, but we want some fall here.   Looking for 82.70 to hold.

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

image

We have played this rounded bottom game before on TLT, it sure looks to us like it wants 111.60.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

image

Looking for a fold back below 50 before going much higher here.  


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

No info here.


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

Bit of a bounce.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

We just missed the 100 new highs on the NYSE, we recorded 93.  So they are starting to nibble again at quality.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Bearish.


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

Fat Lady remains bearish into the end of the quarter.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

End of the quarter coming up… $ES_F 1597 x 1570

Today’s Economic News:

image

Only one piece of news for today outside the USA and that was fairly positive.  In the USA for today, look to the Auction at 1pm ET to see if rates are continuing to rise.

Quote of the Day:
An argument is the longest distance between two points of view.
–Dan Bennett

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

image

Yesterday we talked about the 40 DPI being in the bounce zone and we did get just a bit of a bounce.  We think there could be some wild swings sideways  over the rest of the week as the market works out these new prices.

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1597
Long:  1570

image

We think that the 1553 we put in on Monday should hold for a while as the market moves pretty violently over the next few days into the close of the quarter. For today, we have 1597 on the high.  Our pat on the back for the 1588 call yesterday.

We like the reversal pattern here and we can see targets all the way up to 1624.  Not sure we will get there though.  We really like the double touch on the 1570 area.  So while we expect upside movement bias, we expect that to be volatile and tradable in both directions.

MiM Update:

I get two kinds of meter mail everyday, and it doesn’t matter what the meter says.  The first kind goes “I killed it today, that meter is fantastic!”, and the 2nd version (the polite edition) “Is there something wrong with the meter, it didn’t seem to work”.

Here is yesterday’s meter and let’s talk about what happened:

image

Data came in a bit later than usual, just before 3pm, and it came in big to the sell side and just kept building up into the reveal.  (The Reveal is the 3:45pm ET NYSE MOC imbalance release).

When we get so imbalanced, we like to take that early entry around 3pm.  If you did short in there yesterday, you took some heat.  Even our 3:20 and 3:30 entries were tough.  King yesterday was the 3:40pm entry, a post reveal trade that would have scored you +5 on the short side.

What happened was we had low volume going into the closing hour.  The market was really choppy all afternoon and as we came back up to the highs again, the vast amount of shorts (the short bus is too full) started stopping out and buyers rode that 3pm rally up almost 6 points.  There was no regard to the reality that the market was going to have to close with a huge imbalance.

Remember, most traders or algos or arbitrators don’t have this data.  We do.  We can see what is coming.. They can’t until the reveal comes out and reality sets in and the market has to adjust into the close.  So don’t expect the market to always trend the early data.  Think about what is going to happen at the reveal.

We did get a note from the traders and owners of the data yesterday and here is what they said:

Our data predicts the 3:45 NYSE imbalance announcement.  There is a jump at 3:45 each day that correlates to the direction of the market from 3:45-4pm.  In particular, this relationship is most powerful on Fridays, options expirations, end of month, end of quarter, and rebalancing.

When the indicator is neutral- 50/50 ish, the 5bps jump from 3:44-3:45 may exist but will be hard to catch unless doing hft.  So for most they’ll want to just not take a directional bet.  On days like today where market looks to be going higher, 80% sell that grew to 93% sell says 1) don’t buy and 2) go short. 

Market went back to open price at close so would have made big money shorting the strength.

If you haven’t taken the plunge yet, you can read more and sign up at: http://closingimbalance.com

 

Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:

image

How’s that for a complete cycle?  An 80.60 bottom has gone up 3% back to the 83.15 area.  We would like to see 82.32 get tested before 83.42.

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

image

Watching a double bottom here at 107.35.  That 109 area just could not hold as money continues to flow out of TLT.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

image

We need to watch the next flows.


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

Not much here.

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

Taking a bounce in here today.  We think today should be up, too.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

The best we can use this chart for is to say there is no trade in place to the upside.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

We have the chart continuing bearish.


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

This move is getting pretty close to mirroring the correction in November and May from last year. 

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.