Bears at the cross road, they need to show some control. $ES_F 1650 x 1620

Today’s Economic News:

image

What happened?  All of a sudden our news is turning more negative out of Europe.  That Bubil auction put rates back into the negative column.  We don’t like that one bit.


Quote of the Day:
The hunger for love is much more difficult to remove than the hunger for bread.
–Mother Teresa

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

image

We are pretty impressed with the NH/NL chart and how it is holding up on this rally.  We will continue to watch for improvement as the market improves.

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1650
Long:  1620

image

Here is our thinking.  The currents are all over the place. We are definitely on the road to recovery and it is like riding a two wheel bike.  The big boy, big girl kind of bike.   Those training wheels have helped but it is time to raise them just a bit.  That scares us cause even though those two little wheels in the back offer just a bit of stability, it has become our support on many an occasion and raising them brings up fear because those slots are just so big and we can raise them only so far before they are removed totally.  We know the day is coming.  So we kind of welcome those awkward moments where we tip as it staves off the day when we must stand on our own.

At some point in life the wheels do come off and we do eventually fly on our bikes doing moves and maneuvers we didn’t think we would ever master. So, too, will this economy.  But in the mean time, good news becomes bad for the market and bad news slows the threat of “tapering”.  These cross currents and thresholds are different for everyone so the market becomes chopped up in violent moves as data and timing are interpreted through the eyes of thousands and thousands of traders, investors, and managers.

We think the summer will be full of ups and downs and that this current up is disposed to become a future down with that future not so far away.  Perhaps a double top at 1650?

For now we have 1650 as the next potential turning point with buyer support at 1620.

 

MiM Update:

Embarrassed.  I lost Friday’s data and if any of you read this and have the snapshot values I would be eternally grateful.   These holiday weeks are tough and it feels good to be back to routine. I like routine.

Basically, to review, Friday’s data hovered around 50%.  There was no size to the data.  I thought the new auto-snapshot was all set, it wasn’t, and the data was lost in a java script error.

The meter did work until close however, but I didn’t get any  “wow great!” nor any “what the heck” ones either.  So I don’t think anyone traded on the meter.  I am expecting that we can put it to work this week.

 

 

Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:

image

As Europe flounders, the dollar continues to try and run to that 86 level.  We have 85 as next rung up and a test at 84.10 likely.

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

image

Where is all the money going?  Rates are arising.  We do expect one more run at lower rates, but that will require fear and the loss of the market momentum that has hit over the last few days.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

image

Where is our less than 50?  This next few days will be a good barometer of the summer market.  


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

Prices are rising, but the chasing volume is not so impressive here.


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

36 percent of stocks are above their 40 DMA.  As we move through mid-may, math is going to get easier as the 40 DMA begins to really start moving down.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

We want to be full bear and start laying on the swing short from here, but this chart keeps us nervous.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Bearish.


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

If we can hold green or maybe even slightly red, this will be the day that the Fat-lady is touched.   This is the test level right now for the bears.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

When bad things happen to good numbers.. watch the payroll. $ES_F 1635 x 1618

Today’s Economic News:

image

It is all ‘bout the Jobs numbers today..

watch for the reaction because today might be one of those good numbers equals less stimulus equals lower future growth equals lower markets kind of days.


Quote of the Day:
A verbal contract isn’t worth the paper it’s written on.
–Samuel Goldwyn

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

image

Our bounce out of oversold is in but we don’t think it has been oversold enough.  We did not get our 9:1 down volume day triggers to tell us the sellers have capitulated yet.  

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1635
Long:  1618

image

It is about the jobs today, so watch those numbers.

We did fall too far/ too fast intraday yesterday and that was bought backup all the way to the shelf above 1618 and now it is up to the bulls to do something with that.  We still like the possible 1635 upside target and we don’t think the selling is over, that means volatility.

Today is dedicated to the jobs report and we think it could be opposite day.   A bad number means the Fed’s will be slower at walking away and a good number might mean a faster transition.  The market always has you thinking. 

On the closing meter yesterday we showed and small negative imbalance all hour long. I was on the phone with a trader around 3pm ET and we talked and I shared that it has been my observations that imbalances less than 66.6% either way are to be thought of as neutral and that any chance of a market reversal is diminished, and we did rally all the way into the close.

   image

I am hearing that the NYSE MOC imbalance was actually on the buy side.  There was warning that GM was being added to the S&P500 and that would effect the imbalance readings for the day.  Here is the handy dandy chart.  I have one more day, today, and the week will be complete and we will roll up our observations.

image

The best trade was long from just before the MOC release into the close, producing a nice 8 points. So even though the meter did not produce a strong bias but holding long into the close knowing that there most likely isn’t a $1B sell imbalance building is information too. A clear air ahead signal.

If you haven’t seen this cutting edge tool you can visit at: http://closingimbalance.com

 Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:

image

How is that for weakness! The numbers out of Germany today were also strong and that is going to keep the dollar down.  If we get decent jobs numbers today, this sell-off should give a nice upside move. Letting the dust settle here.

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

image

We moved to the 60 minute chart for the TLT-A-Whirl. Yesterday we called out the inverse HNS and the 117.38 target.  It didn’t hit.  We are going to let the dust settle today post jobs number before we get all directional here.  We do like any hold above 114.50 as bullish, else a ride down to 112.50 area.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

image

The Zweig has bounced, but if the market is as weak and damaged as we think it might be, we will pass this way again.  


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

Nothing here.

NYSE Up/Down Volume Percent :

image

Looking for some confirmation, we have neither a selling capitulation signal nor a buying thrust signal to help align ourselves directionally.  We think there is more work to be done by the bears. 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

A small bounce here.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

just noise right now.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

bearish


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

Bearish

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Looking for my Party invitation $ES_F 1654 x 1599

Today’s Economic News:

image

Load it up. It is news in the USA today.. Inflation, Manufacturing, we have it all.  Weaker than expected GDP numbers out of Europe and the UK have the dollar on a run and the USA market down just a bit, waiting for the USA releases.


Quote of the Day:
In matters of conscience, the law of the majority has no place.
–“Mahatma” Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

image

Putting this crazy frenzied New Highs/ New Lows chart up.  Almost 100% on the New High / New Low ratio, the last time we were at this height was 8/3/2011 and the last time we fired off a series like this was coming out of the 2009 trough, where we basically rallied all year long.

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1654
Long:  1599

image

Party hats are on and the market is climbing up to new highs.  Party like it is 2009.  Everyone wants to say the 90s but looking back through the data, that 2nd half 2009 rally looks a lot like this rally and that party lasted all year long.  We are back in the mode of not able to get anything more that a 0.5% pullback.

Our breadth is giving us some bearish convergences, but they are freshly painted so a series of follow through days could fix that.  We have gone to +5 mode where we basically move the high higher by 4 or 5 points looking for consolidation after a major push.   We will get that 3% pullback, but if you were short 3% back you are now looking to get break even at 1600! 

It feels like Friday.

It is about follow through and I think that could be a little harder now with developing weaker breadth.  Today will be a good testing day. (Watch the NYSE NHs).

 Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:

image

I was mucking around with some new indictors and I lost most of my charts.  There is a problem with NinjaTrader in workspace management.  A weakness that I know about but always seem to fall in.

The Dollar is on the rise. Duh.  Our upside target remains 86.  We are looking for 84.33 in here to exhaust and retest the 84 area.

I have temporarily lost those buy,sell zones.. but we are way overbought and they would suggest a swing short in here.  

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

image

What can we cay about TLT?  Too far to fast and now we have to move our upside targets back down.  We lost that chart too yesterday, I hope to have better data online by next week as I am reconfiguring for the 2nd half of 2013.

>>> Follow us @redliontrader<<<<<

 

Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

image

Bearish Divergence.


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

Bearish Divergence.


Number of NYSE issues trading below their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

Bearish DIvergence


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

image

Bullish.. Very.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Bearish Divergence, but still bullish.


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
image

Bullish.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Magic Eight Ball: “Will We Make the Zweig Hit Today”?… “Ask again later” $study

image

Day Eight today for the Zweig Thrust countdown.  Yesterday we did make some progress after two days of moving in the wrong direction.   We had moved to 7 away, but gained on that yesterday and we are now just 4.7 away with a nice gap up as I write.  A 2:1 today on the NYSE and I think we have it in the books and I would have shared by second thrust with the TTTHedge.com trading team.  That will be historic. 

Watch the A/D lines today and see if we can hold.  Day T-10 was a weak day so we get the advantage of dropping a weak day out of the 10 day average and adding strength.  The bulls will need kissy face from the hill to pull it off.

image

The CVI is our biggest worry here as up volume is not accumulating as fast as we would like.  We want that triangle to break to the upside:

 image

Like yesterday, the 40 DPI we like much better:

image

The NH/NLs are looking pretty darn good:

image

And our trenders are darn right perfect with a 15 DMA cross of the McCSI and a close on the NH/NL cumulative index.  That would be exciting too.

image

image

Breadth is slowly but surely turning.. Wednesday looking for a possible bullish score $study

Score: –2

 

It is beginning to look like we are putting in another bottoming process.  As the news clears the air on the US Debt ceiling debacle, technicals will become clearer.

 

Turn around Tuesday may get us some bullish scores today.  This gap down open will make it hard for the new highs.  Should we see them come in go long friends.  The NYSE put in a one dayer higher.  The RUT and Nasdaq have a 3 day streak going so breadth is improving.

image

 

The 10 day chart is almost identical to the 52 week new high chart, but easy lane for this chart for the bullside that is, doesn’t start until tomorrow.

image

This chart needs a turn and run.  The NYSE has turned, the Nadsaq is making a little progress but the RUT still lags.image

 

Follow me on twitter: @redliontrader

Despite higher prices – Breadth turns bearish

Score: -6 

A slight turn to the bearish side for Breadth.  The 10 Day indicators are all showing bearish signs despite starting what should be a 5 day bullish cycle.  If the bulls can’t pull it off in the next two days gravity will begin to do its work.

 

 

The 52 Week new highs all put in stronger daily bars which kept the indicators at neutral, offsetting the 5 day cycle weakness.  

 image

 

The 10 DHL is the weakest of the indicators and continues to roll to the down side.  A bullish 5 day cycle start was missed today, but there is always tomorrow.

 

image

The 50 DPI stayed neutral despite higher prices which should have pushed number of stocks trading above their 50 DMA up.  Not so.

image

 

Video: How to interpret 10 Day Highs minus Lows

Download: StockFinder  5.0 10 DHL code

Follow me on twitter: @redliontrader