On September 3, “Waiting for the ECB“ I wrote “I am long EURUSD at 1.2560 and EURJPY 98.36” I reiterated this view on September 7th, ” The Yen turn-around” . It has been a lucky call . The fact is that on June 10th, the 21 day Tradercockpit indicators for Apple and Exxon turned positive. They had topped on April 11th. The S&P turned into positive territory at the end of June. The Fed and the ECB gave strong signals that they would provide liquidity as world growth was slowing. The risk-trade was back on, as far as we could determine. The S&P 500 made a top on September 14th and the Tradercockpit 21 days started turning down on the 25th, while the S&P has remained in a range of 30 handles. Such a divergence, either leads to a strong bull move, or a significant correction, which we cannot see, given the liquidity being provided by all major Central Banks. Currently indicators show a short term overbought situation in EUR and equities, but our medium term indicator on the S&P 500 has turned up again . This should be followed by the 21 days , which would confirm the bullish configuration.
The EUR , despite the clear degradation of the economic an social environment, has rallied from 1.2050 to 1.3150 . EURJPY has gone from a low of 94.20 to 103.50. We got half of it, acceptable, as we got half of the lows on the short side in EURUSD.
We had a small pull back this morning, waiting for the result of the Spanish bond auctions, which were positive. We continue to lean on the long side for EURUSD and EURJPY and a small position in USDJPY.
EUR PP 1.3108, EURJPY 103.38