I ain’t no Houdini and the market drones on… $ES_F 1887 x 1861


Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

 

image

Zzzzz.  Maybe we are in part 2 of “sell in May and go away”.  Maybe they sold in April and went away in May?  No Volume, No traction, No Movement.   We asked yesterday for someone to take the wheel, either bull or bear and while there seemed to be a fight in the front-seat, no one took control.

Jobs number this AM and I am not a fortune teller so I can not even guess at what the number will be for April jobs.  Even more mystical, I can’t tell you the reaction the market will have to either a good or bad number.  We wait for the market to tell us that, but we do need to leave this orbital level at some point, we have been shy of the 1900s since the beginning of the year.  In order to do that, in order to escape this area and get on the road to recovery, the bulls are going to have to light the next stage of the rocket.  That attempted lighting might just happen this morning.  If not soon, gravity will overwhelm and back down this market will go. 

 


Quote of the Day:
Every man alone is sincere. At the entrance of a second person, hypocrisy begins.
–Ralph Waldo Emerson


Comments and Levels for the Front (S&P 500 – E-mini futures) contract:

Short: 1887

Long:  1861

image

As far as the ES contract, a pop upside with a reversal at 1887 should not bode well, if the market likes stocks and likes them a lot, we should see 1897 today.  That type of move makes a statement.   If we decide to reverse and fill in those 9:1 down capitulation days, we are going to have to reach deep and fast, like 1861.  If we stay in a 10 or 15 point range today, boring, we will have to wait for something else to fire us up.

 

On the MiM:

image

Teased again by the May Day MiM.   I need 200M to make an entry and we were building up nice for a 3:20pm entry, but oops… evaporation and deflation and down that buy-side advantage went.

If you have streaming issues, please let me know.  info@mrtopstep.com

Date Of Signal Direction x:00 Entry/Close x:20 Entry/Close x:30 Entry/Close
4/2/2014 Long 1.99 1.09 0.07
4/3/2014 Long 2.71 1.99 0.31
4/11/2014 Short 1.16 2.86 5.10
4/15/2014 Long 4.04 -0.21 -0.04
4/17/2014      Short 1.72 3.66 3.27
4/23/2014 Short -0.41 (xx:20)
Total   11.21 9.39 8.72

 

If you want to join the meter readers you can go to: Join the MiM


Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):

image

TLT should be a bit easier to predict based on today’s number.  If we beat jobs expectations that I think are around 200K jobs, expect TLT to descend.  If we put in dismal numbers, expect this 112 area to give up the ghost and for TLT to go higher.

Follow me on Twitter  @redliontrader <<<<<


Breadth Charts in Full:   Zweig Breadth Thrust

image

Bulls to the left of him, bears to the right, here’s the Zweig stuck in the middle again.

 


Cumulative Volume Index:

image

On the line….


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

image

Baby steps.


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart:

image_thumb15_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumimage_thumb11_thumb_thumb

image

Bulls, you need to convince us with a 90s reading!


Trenders Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

image

Bullish.


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady)Nyah-Nyah:

image

Bullish.


Parting Shot: 

Hey FAA, get out of my airspace!

In general, your property rights and privacy extend as an air corridor, between 80 and 400 feet vertically.  The courts have been unclear about this and there is no legislation to protect this, there should be.  Before planes, you owned all the way to heaven if you owned property, that right was taken away by the gift of flight.  I get that.  The FAA controlled airspace is 400 feet and up, I can’t remember where the 80 feet comes from, some other ruling, but in general there is no real definition of what space above your house is considered yours.  Both the courts have ruled both on the 80 foot number in a trespassing case and the 400 foot number. This issue needs some work and attention on our part before our government decides it is best to own it all.

There are a ton of issues about not knowing and not having your air space right protected, privacy for instance.  It is not clear that someone licensed can not park their drone over your house.  I started drone research yesterday because I met someone who knew someone who had just bought a drone to do real-estate pictures,  a classic drone commercial application and federally illegal.

Since 2007 commercial use of a drone is verboten.  There are only two commercial licenses that I know of and both are for flying in the arctic only (do we regulate the arctic?).   So we pay FAA employees to write letters and ground businesses because the FAA is greedy cautious and wants to control everything and because there “might” be a problem and they can’t make rush a decision in a seven year period. Wouldn’t be prudent.    I wonder why we are all skeptical about our government?

Here’s an idea  FAA Chairman, Mr. Huerata, how about you let me play FAA in my, say, tiny 80 feed of airspace, heck make it 50 if need be.  If I want to hire a roof inspector with a 1 pound drone to inspect my roof, or a chimney cleaning machine, or a cat retrieval air craft, or a real-estate photography person, how about I make the call and allow it to happen?  How about we open the doors to commerce and close them to ridiculously slow and draconian regulations?  How about if there becomes a problem and people get hurt, maimed or killed, how about then we regulate?  How about you get out of my air space, FAA?

Take a couple of years to think about that!

As always, we want your feedback!  marlin@redliontrader.com

Thank you for Reading – Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

DISCLAIMER: The information and data in the following report(s) were obtained from sources considered reliable. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any commodities or securities. RedlionTrader.com, its  officers, directors and its contributors may in the normal course of business, have position(s), which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. RedlionTrader.com, its officers, and directors are not agents, representatives, or affiliates of the CME Group or any trading entity. Trading Futures, Options, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in these report(s) will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.