Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:
Still stuck in the middle on the Zweig. Someone needs to take control here and really steer the course.
Quote of the Day:
After three days, fish and guests stink.
Comments and Levels for the Front (S&P 500 – E-mini futures) contract:
We are up against the 1879 discussed yesterday and that puts in a new top and target at 1897, looking for a blow off in that area maybe. It means if you want to short for the May factor, you have to plan for a long ride up as a possible scenario. The goal of trading is planning and outlasting your opponent, that means good risk management.
If 1879 turns out today to be the turning area, give or take a few, watch for the bulls at 1861 on the downside and see if they can regain footing, if not we think 1831 will be the first pause area.
On the MiM:
I have been trying to trade the MiM mechanically. I was hoping that by the anniversary of this indicator I could be only a mechanical trader. That requires me to sit down behind the computer, pay attention and trade without really thinking. That is 3 requirements that I can’t keep 100%. I don’t always have control over my time (yesterday I was a couple minutes late, a lifetime in computer cycles), paying attention? (enough said on that) trade without thinking? I think you see the problem. So my results don’t match the mechanical ones below.
For instance, I took the trade at 3:00pm yesterday. Long at 1877 on the June contract. There was no mechanical entry according to our chart above, at 3:00pm it was 64/63%, that is below my threshold.
The next entry time was 3:20pm, again no entry yet I continued to play my trade. My story ends positive – the MiM charts end up without a final trade for April but all that being said, April was a good ride for the MiM and May will be my anniversary month which last year (I only had access during the last two weeks) was a pretty darn good ride during turbulent times.
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|Date Of Signal||Direction||x:00 Entry/Close||x:20 Entry/Close||x:30 Entry/Close|
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Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):
A fairly neutral FOMC press release indicating a slow tapering, that leaves us sideways on the TLT. Yesterday’s poor economic numbers, on the other hand, have us looking toward low rates for a while. That will eventually turn in our favor.
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Breadth Charts in Full: Zweig Breadth Thrust
Bulls need to break out today.
Cumulative Volume Index:
On the line.
Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):
In the last couple of days we have pulled back enough to make a decent foot hold for a push higher.
New Highs / New Lows ratio chart:
Falling short of the 90s, we did 107 new highs on the NSYE, that needs to get up above 200 soon.
Trenders Short Term Trender – McClellan Summation Index:
Long Term Trender – Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
Happy May Day to all! Time to put on our traditional garbs and wrap some ribbons around a May Pole. Not gonna happen here today for me, it’s rainy and 42 degrees.
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Thank you for Reading – Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader
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