I am Bullish, Bearish, and something in between, Watching $ES_F 1446 and $ES 1430 $study

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    Asia – CLOSED

  • Shanghai (China) +0.01%
  • Hang Seng (Hong Kong) +0.28%
  • Nikkei (Japan)+1.44%

Europe as of 7:20am EDT

  • DAX (Germany) +0.69%
  • FTSE (UK) +0.61%

 

Today’s Economic News:

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Quote of the day:
Silent gratitude isn’t very much use to anyone. – Gertrude Stein

Current Breadth Readings: (click here to see all our breadth charts)

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We haven’t watched that 40 DPI chart lately.  It has unraveled with the latest correction, plunging the number of stocks below their 40-day moving average to below 50% on Friday.  We want to watch the recovery and if we do get to test the highs, watch how high we are on the 40 DPI.  It is sure to set up a divergence here on the third attempt to break higher. 

 

ES SP500 Futures Comments:

Short: 1446
Long: 1430

I was lazy today and kept our 1446 target in place.  At that point, which appears sooner as opposed to later, I want to consider shorting if we can stall a little in price.  I like long at the 1430  area today.  When asking if I am bullish or bearish, please include a time frame.   Out to forever I am bearish, eventually we will get hit by a meteor or the sun will explode or we will all get fat and die off.  On a more practicable, multi-year decade timeframe, I am permanently bullish, which one would have to be based on historic precedence.    Zooming in tighter to the next few weeks, I am watching and waiting.  Our trenders have us already turned to the downside, that puts me close to the bear edge.  I am waiting for a bounce up for a third peak here in the 1446 to 1468 area and want to glimpse the breadth when we get there.  Although price is taught as always being key, how we get to that price level is also very important.  If it is a one day wonder, thrust is very different (requires follow-through as proof) than fighting a struggle, than riding a news story, or on very weak breadth and foundation.   So do I think we can go higher than 1446?  Of course.  1446 represents my next price point where I pull out the map, say “how did I get here” and “where could I go next”. 

Right now my guess is we fail at some point on a third attempt and do a little desert wandering before we re-gather the vision to go higher.  But, if you ask me about today, today I am bullish.

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US Dollar DX Futures Comments:

So encouraging for the equity bulls that the Dollar cannot gather any momentum to get up and over into the 80’s.  We think a 79 test is in the works now.

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TLT Twenty Year Bond ETF Comments:

We like the curl down on TLT from yesterday and want to see that follow through with a quick trip through the 122’s and into the 121/120 area.

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