Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Declines in October

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Declines in October

The Dodge Momentum Index moved 4.2% lower in October to 150.5 (2000=100) from the revised September reading of 157.0. The Momentum Index is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. October’s shortfall was the third consecutive monthly decline and the result of losses in both components of the Momentum Index. The commercial component fell by 4.9% from September to October, while the institutional component dropped 3.1%. The commercial component has, in fact, been the impetus behind the recent string of declines in the overall index. This is consistent with the view that the commercial building sector is approaching a peak and should begin to gradually ease back over the coming year. The institutional component, meanwhile, has been relatively more stable due to the availability of public funds for projects such as schools and airport terminals.
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Dodge Momentum Index Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 150.5 in October, down from 157.0 in September.

According to Dodge, this index leads “construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year”.