Looking for $TLT to do a U-Turn and some upside to the $ES_F 1413 area $study

Around the Globe

    Asia – CLOSED

  • Shanghai (China) -0.89%
  • Hang Seng (Hong Kong) -0.62%
  • Nikkei (Japan)-1.22%

Europe as of 6:19am EDT

  • DAX (Germany) -0.18%
  • FTSE (UK) -0.24%

Today’s Economic News:


Not much setting us up pre-market from over the oceans.   Nice Private loan number and the Irish Retail Sales were encouraging.  Today in the USA, watch the New Home Sales number at 10am.  It”s all about housing now as the bulls are looking for some solid ground to stand on.  Put it in the “yes, but what about…” category.

Quote of the Day:
The company’s most urgent task is to learn to welcome, beg for, demand – innovation from everyone
–Tom Peters

Current Breadth Readings: (click here to see all our breadth charts)

Zweig, Zweig, Zwieg… I am all Zweiged out.  If you get this via email, there should be some Zweig information below.  If you are on a website, there should be a separate posting.   There are other great things going on that I want to share too, so go search for the Zweig stuff and come back and read this.


We love our New Highs/ New Lows trend chart, and particularly the crossing of the 15-day moving average marked out on the chart below.   Currently, it has moved from Bearish to Neutral-bullish, a move it makes while waiting for the 15 DMA cross.  That could come as early as the end of this week and that would mark for us the confirmed start of a bull-trend run.   You can use the June – October run as a model, a good 3 month upside move.  That would take us to March.   Keep watching this chart.  Ok, now go check the Zweig.




ES SP500 Futures Comments:

Short: 1413
Long: 1388

When I write each morning, I type over an old template that has been stored.  That way I have all the format and just have to change the charts and text.  You may have noticed on occasion that I have left a stray comment around, or repeated a quote.  That Ronald Regan quote made quite a few posts.   I mention this because the last post I stored as a template had 1412 as the short area and 1389 as the buy area.  We have been here before.

We think the lows today may be in the 1390/92 area, but a push down for some stop shopping could occur.  We think that should dry up before 1388. The 10am news and the nicey- nicey from the fools on the hill will have a direct impact on the price flow today.   We do think a rally is in the works and have our eyes on the 1413 area for some upside extension. 



US Dollar DX Futures Comments:

This should be it on the upside of the dollar for now.  We will draw the line at 80.75 and say retest down to 80 from there.


TLT Twenty Year Bond ETF Comments:

The TLT has been getting on our nerves for the last couple of days.  We don’t think 126.50 or above is in the cards.  If we get there, we are playing the wrong game.  We expect a TLT reversal with price focusing on the 122 area.


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