Borrowing Doug Kass’ gun and putting it to our head, our best guess remains higher $ES_F 1452 $study

Around the Globe

    Asia – CLOSED

  • Shanghai (China) +1.45%
  • Hang Seng (Hong Kong) +0.38%
  • Nikkei (Japan)-0.83%

Europe as of 6:55am EDT

  • DAX (Germany) +1.29%
  • FTSE (UK) +1.09%


Today’s Economic News:


Decent news out of the continent, but UK numbers were not too bright, a block of red in the middle of our new section.  In the USA we want to watch the PMI numbers, out at 9amET, and the ISM numbers at 10am.  This market will not need a big excuse to rally.

Quote of the day:
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored. – Aldous Huxley

Current Breadth Readings: (click here to see all our breadth charts)


We are featuring the New High / New Low chart again today.  It just makes us shake our heads everyday as it pokes higher.  There is no selling for the weak here, just buying the strong.  That alone could be enough to take this market higher.


ES SP500 Futures Comments:

Short: 1451
Long: 1423

For today, we have both moved our buy zone down and our sell zone up.  The overnight rally from Europe has restored us to the 1440 area.  A break above 1445 today would should put our 1451 target into play.   We more or less obeyed the 1430 downside resistance overnight with just a little bit of stretch.   Breadth is a mixed bag with our trending indicators in a confused state.  I still favor the major trend which remains bullish on weaker breadth.  A classic setup for either a double top or a weaker just-miss high. 

The Dollar and TLT are set up at resistance areas where we think they will fail and the markets will rally.  We have a good shot here at calling a trifecta correctly, or being really, really wrong.   The point being, the markets are ready to make a major move, our best prediction is that move will be up.


US Dollar DX Futures Comments:

We are playing the range of 80 to 79 for the dollar.  It keeps attempting to get up and above the 80 but remains frustrated with the Euro rally that started around 4am ET on European news.   We think there should be eventual failure in here that will free the markets to rise. 


TLT Twenty Year Bond ETF Comments:

Bonds don’t want to retreat from this support area.  We remain pushed up against the descending trendline.  We are looking again for a failure here and a run back down to prove that 118.50 target we had setup about a month ago. 


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