Today’s Economic News:
News is ok for today. Weaker numbers out of China than expected, but that is OK too. Watch today for that 10am ET release of wholesale inventories and then again at 2pm ET the FOMC taper notes. The bears are looking to take advantage of the dangerous double top and those seem like two events that could work in their favor. Yesterday’s price action was a bit indecisive so the bulls are vulnerable today.
Quote of the Day:
We’re lucky poodles migrate south.
Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:
New Highs remain the story as we move through earnings.
Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:
Waiting… Waiting… Waiting… Waiting for the bears to show some fortitude. Anything. They have a shot here now at 1649 with a double top in place from the June 19th time frame. We have 1661 as the next higher target here. A failure down to the 1597 area and then a run back up would make a decent right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulder pattern. For today, we wait to see if the market will just even pause here to see what the bears can do. Read and look through today’s breadth charts, they are pretty strong looking and even the fat-lady, previously singing “go bears” is now starting to sing a swan song.
On the MiM:
Data came in just before 3:00pm ET strong on the buy side and with volume. That 3PM entry turned out to be the value point with a close of the trade when the buy side fell dramatically into the close. The loss of the buy side advantage turned out to be the spot to put up the counter trade with a 3:40 exit.
On a technical note, we have finished switching over everyone to use the new meter, some of you needed to do a cache refresh (Ctrl F5) in order to see a clean copy. We did get a server disconnect yesterday from our symbol quote source (not our NYSE source) and that fouled up our data. That error situation handling has been improved as of last night and the new back-end is now officially released. If any of the meter readers are having issues, please contact me directly: firstname.lastname@example.org.
Our MiM service is Premium and requires a subscription http://closingimbalance.com/subscription-options/
We have added the ability to see the NYSE Arca Opening & Closing imbalance. These services are currently experimental as the data is mostly ETF based so, for instance, if traders are selling 40MM “double bond funds short” what does that mean for the markets? We are building out some correlation tables to see if we can correct the data to be more useful. In the meantime, feel free to watch the data.
And for those that want to analyze the data, the MiM snapshots are currently open to everyone also: http://closingimbalance.com/snaphshots-mim/
Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):
We are expecting to see some type of bear-flag action with an upward slope to the 108.75 area. This is laying a bit flat right now this a.m. If we do break down, we expect the next level down to be in the 105.24 area.
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Breadth Charts in Full :
Zweig Breadth Thrust:
Bears can not string anything together to make a move. They need to push the Zweig below 50.
Cumulative Volume Index:
Volume is just a bit bearishly diverged now, but not much. Pretty good stuff the bulls are showing.
Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):
40 DPI showing that math advantage we have been talking about, now up to 43.73% on the double top.
New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :
As Linda Ronstadt would say, don’t it make my bear eyes blue, as in sad. These new highs indicate the sentiment of investors to chase stocks into earnings. 282 NYSE new highs yesterday. We are just pushing it higher and higher.
Short Term Trender – McClellan Summation Index:
This move have been so fast that even our short-term trender has not turned neutral yet. It remains bearish.
And the fat-Lady has her first day in Bull territory so the bears today need to play whack-a-bull in order to stop this cross. Watch that double top!
Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader
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