Double top 1650 $ES_F? Somewhere there is a bear

Today’s Economic News:

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Now the UK is going all soft on us.  That should be more fuel for the dollar.

Quote of the Day:
Keep your fears to yourself, but share your inspiration with others.
–Robert Louis Stevenson

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:

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We continue to operate under the impression that there is more downside testing to go and are awaiting a sign, any sign, that this low volume rally is petering out. We haven’t had it yet and and are now eyeing the 1650 area for a double top potential.  Today’s featured chart is the Fat-Lady,  our slow, lazy trender that, when below the dashed line (the 15 day moving average of itself), indicates that the market is in a bearish trend, above bullish.   We like a two day filter before we change our direction to eliminate some chop.  We are now one day above and we are thinking a good day today will have our head spinning.  We would like to see something negative on the books for what has been the most bullish day of the week, Terrific Tuesdays.

 

 

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1649
Long:  1625

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Read more in the featured chart of the day to understand my sentiment. Looking to see if there is power in this double top at that 1650 area.  We like 1625 on as a resting spot for any regression the market might want to do from here.  We wait patiently, looking for a crack, but those new highs!  280 on the NYSE yesterday.  There are anxious buyers that want to be part of this market and despite the fact that prices are as high as they have been in years, buyers still persist in thinking that soft spots, like we are seeing in Europe right now, are worth the risk.

Thank you to all those that pointed out that peddling is something that I do when I tell you to buy a month on the MiM and try it out and that pedaling is something you do to ride a bike.   I still have my training wheels on when it comes to using the great language we have evolved.

 

Yesterday on the MiM:

I did recover from Friday’s archive data loss and that post is now complete and we think the auto-snapshot function is working.  To see the snapshots so far for the Month of July you can go to : http://closingimbalance.com/snaphshots-mim/

For yesterday, our chart turned out like this:

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So while I did get signals that I liked (> 66%), and size (>150MM), the movement was just painfully slow.  The best short was only 1.5 points from a 3:00PM ET entry to a 3:30 exit.  When we did finally get signals, a long with the meter would have netted just shy of the 1.5.

So not much to be gained, but it was good to see size coming back in as we figure out how to trade this thing into the summer.

 

 

 

Comments about the Front US Dollar DX futures contract:

 

I have chart issues today and don’t have any DX comments.

 

Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  

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Our swing area on the TLT, a tilt-a-whirl, has now set up to the top side at 108.75 and the downside to 105.25.  We would expect some bear-flag behavior in here with a slow retrace up to that 108.75 area.

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Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:

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We are awaiting signs that there are still bears out there.  We need one of those to be a sub-40 on the Zweig 


Cumulative Volume Index:

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The lack of volume on this run up is the only bear-likeable thing in the charts today.

 


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):

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We mentioned yesterday that over the next 40 days the math gets easier for this chart


New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :

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Nothing bearish in this chart.  It needs a major breakdown back below 10.


Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:

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The McClellan is slowing coming back to bullish, but it doesn’t seem to be in a hurry and it has some issues to resolve.  This is one of the reasons we like a continued correction call.


Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):
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This was our featured chart of the day.  Watching its reaction to the teat now.

Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader

 

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