Giving $ES_F 1680 the benefit of the doubt for now, if that breaks, think 1720

Today’s Economic News:


We like the year over year inflation numbers, but those month over month are a bit soft so we want to watch that UK and Germany can get it started again over the next few months. In the USA today we also get some inflation numbers and capacity utilization numbers at 9:15, pre market open.

Quote of the Day:
Comedy is tragedy plus time.
–Carol Burnett

Featured Breadth Chart of the Day:


Day 2 we are featuring the new high / new low chart.  I want the readers to understand that this market is super uber bullish and if we settle in here between 90 and 100 for a few days, this market could continue to rally to new highs in lower volatility.

Comments and Levels for the Front ES (S&P500 – Emini futures) contract:

Short: 1680 / 1720
Long:  1650


This 1680 area is the ceiling upside for the market and the bulls.   If we can hold the prices here and keep putting in a large number of new highs in stocks (we did 318 NYSE new highs yesterday), we can begin another sustained leg moving up with lower volatility.  That is 180 degrees from what we said at the beginning of the month when we thought the summer was going to be sideways and choppy.  We can’t ignore the bullishness in this market and as we approach 1680, the bears will need to be seeing a lot of bullish breadth draining and volatility increasing if they’re hoping for a breakdown here.   So we sit back and watch how we trade from this level.

On the close and the MiM, we did see a slowdown in interest to get into this market, something different than Thursday and Friday.

On The MiM:




For me, the MiM was just neutral all through the close.  The sell side did build up toward the close and we were down just a bit on the hour, but it wasn’t wholesale selling, but more importantly, it was a display of clamoring to get in like we saw last Thursday and Friday.   The best short was at a 3:10pmET entry into the close and there was little opportunity to make money long.


Comments about TLT (Twenty year Bond ETF):  


Decision time on the TLT now.  It looks like if we don’t move the open today we should hit that 180.75, we closed it out yesterday at 108.67.   If we do start to get selling at the 1680 level, we should see a move up to that 109.50 area next.  If we do fail here, watch 106.50 and then 105 area.

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Breadth Charts in Full :

Zweig Breadth Thrust:



Cumulative Volume Index:


Just a bit of a bearish divergence, but otherwise looks ok.


Number of NYSE issues trading ABOVE their 40 day moving average (40DPI):


Lower high trend line is worth watching on this chart. 

New Highs / New Lows ratio chart :


You already know what I think about this chart.

Trenders :

Short Term Trender –  McClellan Summation Index:



Long Term Trender –  Cumulative 4-week Highs – Lows (the fat lady):


Thank you for Reading –
Marlin aka RedlionTrader @redliontrader


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