PRIMER: UK Chancellor Hammond to present Spring Statement

WHEN

The UK Chancellor Hammond is to begin speaking at 1230GMT (0830EDT) on Tuesday 13th March with DMO to announce Gilt supply remit for the financial year after he has finished speaking  

PREVIEW

The UK Chancellor appeared on the Andrew Marr show on the BBC on Sunday and confirmed that he would not be delivering any new tax measures or spending plans in this update.

Instead, the focus from this will be the economic forecasts and gilt issuance. Public finances have shown some signs of improving recently with the OBR revising borrowing down from GBP 58bln to GBP 50bln for 2017/18 at the last update. HSBC expect this to be cut further to GBP 44bln this time around.

Growth is expected to be revised marginally higher after GDP growth was higher than expectations in 2017 (1.7% vs. 1.5% expected). UBS see the OBR upgrading the 2018 UK growth forecast from 1.4% to 1.6%.

PREVIOUS OBR FORECASTS

GILT ISSUANCE

Most expect the DMO to cut their gilt issuance for FY 2018/19 owing to the better than expected public finances data. Median expectation is for the DMO to announce bond issuance to fall to GBP 100.7bln for FY 2018/19, from GBP 115.1bln in 2017/18. Expectations range from GBP 90.2bln (BAML) to GBP 107.5bln (TD Securities). 

(RANsquawk/BBC/HSBC/UBS/DB)