Seasonals have us bullish, but that is the only reason $ES_F 1399 / 1370 $study

Around the Globe

    Asia – CLOSED

  • Shanghai (China) +1.07%
  • Hang Seng (Hong Kong) +1.39%
  • Nikkei (Japan)+0.87%

Europe as of 6:39am EDT

  • DAX (Germany) +0.03%
  • FTSE (UK) -0.12%


Today’s Economic News:


Not great numbers out of Japan trade balance.  We like the public sector borrowing in the UK.  In the US today, watch those initial claims and see if they can get back down into the 300’s.   9am  ET is the manufacturing PMI numbers, those can move the markets.   Michigan Consumer sentiment is also a market mover.

Quote of the Day:
Work keeps us from three great evils, boredom, vice and need.
–François Marie Arouet Voltaire

Current Breadth Readings: (click here to see all our breadth charts)

Day 3 on the Zweig Countdown.  Looking for 61.5 by the close of business on 12/3


Our 2nd Trender went to neutral today.  This is helping us confirm that we are indeed in a battle for the bottom:



ES SP500 Futures Comments:

Short: 1399
Long: 1370

We are a little bullish here today with the seasonals and where we are on the charts.  Watch that 1390 area on the upside as a break there should be a quick kick in the pants for recovering the 1400 area.   We remain in counter-trend bullish stance today which will change if/when we get below the 1363 area.  A breakdown of our 1370 area will have us on the fence. 

Looking at the charts, we still have a high probability of retesting the lows, just not today.


US Dollar DX Futures Comments:

We need to watch this dollar closely .  If we want the market to rumble higher, we need the dollar to take a dive below the 81 area.  A run up to our 81.67 target from here has us on a trip in the ES to the lows.


TLT Twenty Year Bond ETF Comments:

TLT is at/near the 124 target area. If the markets can break higher today, we expect to see 123.  There might be just a little bit of mattress stuffing today to get ready for the effective 4 day weekend, so getting a daylong run down in TLT should be near impossible.


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