European Unemployment Charts and $ES_F, $DX_F, $TLT thoughts $study

Quote of the day:
Speak the truth, but leave immediately after. – Slovenian Proverb

Current Breadth Readings: (click here to see all our breadth charts)


Not much to see in the breadth charts today.  Since last week’s historic upside move, the markets have just been chopping around forming a bull flag.  That shows up in breadth as charts that point in different directions.  Our McCSI chart did move into Neutral with a one day red signal, we will watch that for a move today.

Bonus Charts: European Unemployment

Digging around this AM, after seeing that the unemployment count for Spain dropped 27.8K, I thought, “that seems good”.  So I looked for a chart on Spanish unemployment and found the Google Public Data site which is really great.  I quickly generated these two charts:

Unemployment for some European countries:  The EU in general sits at 10%, so there are those above and below the line.  You can see the concerned countries.  That is not the whole picture, the question is how many people is that.. ie.  How many mouths do I need to feed?


This shows the numbers in absolute terms:


You can see Spain approaching 6M unemployed, that is a lot of people for Germany to feed.  You can start to get a scale of the problem, Greece vs Spain for instance.

ES SP500 Futures Comments:

Short: 1390
Long: 1360

Nice hold around the world.  We have had two days of solid selling into the close.  With the charts pulled back today, you can see the bull flag setting up from the last move.   Breadth still leans toward bull but it is looking pretty tattered and one of the trenders turned to neutral.

We think a bullish break of the flag should send us up to the next floor which we have now at 1390.  Downside, we like the 1360 area as long as this breadth holds its own.

Today will be about posturing into tomorrow’s AM jobs data.  For now, draw in those bull flags and watch for breaks.


US Dollar DX Futures Comments:

The US dollar is making its own bear flag.  It had a reasonable breakout in play yesterday, we will watch a retest here around 83.  If we can rally and cover yesterday’s highs, that would make our bearish count go up.


TLT Twenty Year Bond ETF Comments:

TLT, on the other hand, is looking quite bearish here with a little bit of a head and shoulder setting up with a neckline around 128 and a target down to the 124 area.  If that breaks, we should see higher prices in equities.


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