Shaken, But Not Stirred, Bulls Find Their Footing $ES_F 1461 x 1449 $Study

Around the Globe

    Asia – CLOSED

    • Shanghai (China) +1.61%
    • Hang Seng (Hong Kong) +0.37%
    • Nikkei (Japan)+0.70%

Europe as of 7:09am EDT

    • DAX (Germany) -0.39%
    • FTSE (UK) -0.08%

Today’s Economic News:


China is on fire…

Quote of the Day:
I am not a vegetarian because I love animals; I am a vegetarian because I hate plants.
–A. Whitney Brown

Current Breadth Readings: (click here to see all our breadth charts)


Our CVI never gets a lot of play time on the big-boy front page so we will feature it today and talk about how it behaved over the last few days. The reason we don’t bring it up much is that it pretty much matches price as you can see.  The red trendline form the mid December highs to yesterday is sloping up on this higher high, that tell us that the volume coming back up into the highs was greater in comparison to the volume of trades that took us into the abyss.  That makes a  bullish confirmation on the move.  Had we been a little short on the CVI in here, we would be looking for other tell-tale signs of weaker tops.  So despite the 4% move lower, the CVI wass letting us know that volume on the downside was not in-line, leaving breath a little shaken, but not stirred.

Right now, it is a stronger top and the bulls need to put in some follow-through.


ES SP500 Futures Comments:

Short: 1461
Long: 1449

We are looking for strength to hold today in a fairly tight range.  We are watching 1461 as the new upside exhaust point; yesterday it was 1458 and I think the high was 1457.50 or close.  On the downside, we think that the 1449 area should find buyers.   For us, that is as tight a range as we get.

We should not retrace more that 50% of yesterday’s push and if we do, a 10+ upside watch for another upside day tomorrow.


US Dollar DX Futures Comments:

Concern on the dollar as we watch and wait to see if the dollar and markets can rise stride by stride.  That is not normally the case and for the sake of sameness, we would like to see that 80.50 hold here with a retest of 79.50.


TLT Twenty Year Bond ETF Comments:

We treat the dollar and the TLT as the Bobbsey Twins (who were the Bobbsey Twins?), but it appears only one behaves at a time.  As the dollar is running against us, TLT has now broken that 120 area we have been waiting for.  We have a 118.50 target on the TLT.



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