S&P Acts Like It Wants To Go Higher

Index Futures Net Changes and Settlements:

Contract Settlement Net Change +/-%
S&P 500 (ESH18:CME) 2739.25 +16.00 +0.58%
Dow Jones (YMH18:CBT) 24,892 +97 +0.38%
Nasdaq 100 (NQH18:CME) 6974.25 +49.75 +0.71%
Russell 2000 (RTYH:CME) 1573.70 +0.30 +0.01%

Foreign Markets, Fair Value and Volume:

  • In Asia 9 out of 11 markets closed higher: Shanghai Comp +0.58%, Hang Seng +1.11%, Nikkei +0.47%
  • In Europe 6 out of 12 markets are trading lower: CAC +0.02%, DAX -0.37%, FTSE -0.04%
  • Fair Value: S&P +4.62, NASDAQ +28.20, Dow +29.52
  • Total Volume: 1.5mil ESH & 7.5k SPH traded in the pit

Today’s Economic Calendar:

Employment Situation 8:30 AM ET, Charles Evans Speaks 8:40 AM ET, Wholesale Trade 10:00 AM ET, Charles Evans Speaks 10:45 AM ET, Charles Evans Speaks 12:45 PM ET, and the Baker-Hughes Rig Count 1:00 PM ET.

S&P 500 Futures: #ES Early Failed Rallies Lead To A Big Late Day Rally

Thursdays trade started with Asian markets gaining, and Europe mixed ahead of the European Central Bank meeting. On Globex, the S&P 500 futures traded higher, with an overnight trading range of 2724.25 to 2741.25, and total volume of 230,000 contracts. The first print on the 8:30 CT open was 2738.00. From there, the ES down ticked and then rallied up to 2742.00 before pulling back down to 2732.00, completing a MrTopStep 10 handle rule. After that, the futures rallied up to 2739.00, then dropped down to 2730.00, rallied back up to 2740.75, and once again failed back down to 2731.00. With the first day of the rollover going on, and today’s jobs number, the overall trade and volume was extremely low.

After the uptick, the ES sold off down to 2731.00, rallied up to a lower high at 2736.25, and then broke down to a lower low at 2727.50. Once the low was in, the ES made a series for lower highs and higher lows before selling back off down to 2727.00 going into 12:30 CT. Total ESM volume was only 162,000. The futures started to climb higher after a headline came out saying ‘President Trump tariffs reportedly to take effect in 15 days, with Mexico and Canada exempted indefinitely’, and ES shot up to 2740.00, and then up to 2745.50.

When the MiM opened up showing $1.8 billion to sell, the ES and dropped down to 2735.50. The final 2:45 cash imbalance showed $1.15 billion to sell, and the ES dropped down to 2732.75 before rallying all the way back to 2745.25 at 3:07. On the 3:15 futures close the ES settled at 2744.00, up 16.25 handles on the day, or up +0.60%.

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