Bolton’s Gone, Who’s Next?


Yuri Oreshkin/ZUMA

Index Futures Net Changes and Settlements:

Contract Settlement Net Change +/-%
S&P 500 (ESU19:CME)  2978.50 +0.25 +0.008%
DowJones (YMU19:CBT) 26,894 +54 +0.20%
Nasdaq 100 (NQU19:CME) 7815.00 -15.75 -0.20%
Russell 2000 (RTYU19:CME) 1545.00 +23 +1.51%

Foreign Markets, Fair Value and Volume:

  • In Asia 8 out of 11 markets closed higher: Shanghai Comp -0.41%, Hang Seng +1.78%, Nikkei +0.96%
  • In Europe 12 out of 13 markets are trading higher: CAC +0.48%, DAX +0.78%, FTSE +0.95%
  • Fair Value: S&P +0.36, NASDAQ +2.11, Dow +5.45
  • Total Volume: 1.49 million ESU & 309 SPU traded in the pit

Today’s Economic Calendar:

MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 AM ET, PPI-FD 8:30 AM ET, Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations 10:00 AM ET, Wholesale Trade 10:00 AM ET, EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET, and a 10-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET.


S&P 500 Futures: Headline Hell

Chart courtesy of Stewart Solaka @Chicagostock $ES_F Someone say Reversal bias? Close on highs after morning Bear bias -> Reversed, trapping shorts that failed to make new lows into the close, forced to cover.

The S&P 500 futures sold off down to 2965.50 on Globex Monday night, and then rallied up to 2978.50 after Japan announced it was going to lower rates. The ES then traded 2971.25 on the 8:30 CT futures open, and after several lower lows, made the early low at 2957.25. 

once  the low was in, the futures double topped at 2966.00, then made two higher lows at 2959.00 and 2958.25 just after a headline came out saying China is expected to agree to buy more American agricultural products in hopes of a better trade deal. 

The ES shot up to 2970.50, then sold off down to 2961.75 as another headline hit saying the President Trump had fired John Bolton. 

After the smoke cleared, the futures traded 2973.50, pulled back down to 2970.50 (prior high), and at 11:49 traded up to a new high at 2975.50. The next move was back down to the vwap at 2967.00, then back up to 2973.00 at 1:00. 

As AAPL rallied rallied the Nasdaq went bid, but after it fell from unchanged to lower, the ES sold back off down to 2965.00, then down to 2962.75, and eventually popped back up to 2967.50 as the MiM started to show $468 million to sell. 

As the MiM decreased to $211 million to sell, the ES traded up to 2968.00. The futures went on to trade 2970.00 when the 2:45 cash imbalance flipped from $17 million to sell to over 400 million to buy. The ES then traded all the way up to 2979.00 on the 3:00 cash cash close, and went on to settle at 2979.00 on the 3:15 futures close, UNCHANGED on the day. 

In the end, it was all about the rotation away from the big cap stocks into the Russell 2000 and Midcap. The mix of China and Trump headlines also played its part. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was clear to see that the S&P, Dow and Nasdaq were struggling. In terms of the days overall trade, volume was on the high side, with 1.41 million contracts traded.  


MrTopStep Meter (MiM):

A whole lot of nothing on the MIM, with the start showing a small sell growing by 3pm to a decent half a billion, but from there began to pair back rather quickly to just -32M before the reveal. The actual release time of 3:50 pm showed a small flip to $74 million buy. 

That buy side grew during the last 5 minutes, and any bears got some special type of love with a 19 point squeeze into the close. 


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