Indonesia’s island Sulawesi was hit by a 7.5 magnitude earthquake, triggering a 6m (20ft) tsunami that hit the cities of Palu and Donggala. Officials have confirmed the death toll rose to over 800.  (BBC/Sky News/CNN)

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said protectionism will only hurt one’s self and unilateral moves will bring damage to all, and China won’t be blackmailed or succumbed to pressure over trade. (Newswires)

PBoC said the yuan exchange rate and market expectations are generally stable. (Newswires)


China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 50.0 vs. Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 50.6)

China NBS Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 50.8 vs. Exp. 51.2 (Prev. 51.3)

China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 54.9 (Prev. 54.2)


UK PM May said the Chequers plan is not dead, while added she is prepared to listen to EU counter-proposals but she wants to hear the details of EU’s concerns, and EU leaders want a deal just as she does. She said she believes Chequers will not destroy the single market and a Canada-style deal is not on the table for EU. In the interview, she refused to answer whether a no-deal Brexit will mean a hard border in Ireland. Note: BBC’s Andrew Marr noted a no-deal under WTO would result in a hard border. (BBC)

UK PM May, in a Sunday Times interview, told Tory rebels to “stop playing politics” and the only proposal on the table at the moment that delivers, is the Chequers plan, while she reiterated that no deal is better than a bad deal but she thought a good deal could be reached. She also challenged the EU to come forward with a counter proposal. (BBC/Times/Sun)

Former UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has refused to rule out a leadership challenge to UK PM May. Furthermore, in an interview with The Sunday Times, Johnson questioned whether UK PM May believes in Brexit and branded her Chequers plan “deranged”. (BBC/Times)

EU’s Chief Negotiator Barnier told Labour leader Corbyn that they believed they might be close to finding agreement with UK PM May, but everyone is needs to act calmly and responsibly if the agreement was to get through parliament. (Guardian)

UK Labour leader Corbyn was told his stance made a no-deal Brexit more likely than not; according to sources in Brussels. Brussels is said to hope for the Tory conference to break the deal deadlock. (Newswires)

UK’s Labour party claims UK PM May’s government is the “most divided ever” as it releases a dossier of over 100 Tory MPs criticising the government or colleagues. (Independent)

UK Business Secretary Clark has said there are “grounds for optimism” that UK will strike a Brexit deal with the EU. (Sky News)

Former Brexit Secretary Davis said UK PM May’s advisors fail to grasp the practicalities of the negotiations and have tendencies to believe “exaggerations” from Brussels. He also said he thinks it is 80%-90% likely there will be a Brexit deal. (Telegraph/Sky News)

A Sky Poll revealed that 56% of Britons think Brexit will have a worse outcome than they expected when they voted in the EU referendum. (Sky News)


EU Commissioner Dombrovskis said what emerges so far from discussions in Italy does not seem to be in line with EU fiscal rules, he added it’s important to stick to responsible fiscal policy to keep interest rates low. The Dutch PM has also expressed his concerns over the Italian budget plan. (Newswires)

Italy’s Deputy PM Salvini said ‘enough now’ to the ‘threat from Europe’, while he added the Italians’ rights to jobs and pensions come before ‘bureaucrats’ when he addressed EU’s doubts on budget. (Newswires)

Fitch affirmed Luxembourg at ‘AAA’; outlook stable. (Newswires)


BoE’s Ramsden (Dove) said he sees UK labour market tightness and rising prices pressure; his personal view is the same as BoE’s guidance that limited and gradual rates are needed in the future. (Newswires)

ECB’s Praet (Dovish) said he expects that economic conditions will remain favourable despite the risks to the outlook, and policy normalization is going to take a long time. (Newswires)

ECB’s Lane (Dovish) said he is fairly sure core inflation is on an upward path not spectacularly but steady enough, he added that the ECB guidance on rates is clearly open to revision depending on data. (Newswires)

ECB’s Rehn (Neutral) said interest rates will remain at this low at least until summer 2019. (Newswires)

Fed’s Barkin (Voter) says the US economy is strong and the labour force is growing relatively slowly. (Newswires)

Argentinian Central Bank are reportedly set to hike their Leliq rate to 65% from 60%; according to sources. (Newswires)


North Korea’s Foreign Minister announced that North Korea would not take the first steps towards denuclearisation without further guarantees from the US. He also warned of the increasing mistrust between Pyongyang and Washington DC. (Telegraph)

Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Lavrov said everything possible will be done to preserve Iran nuclear deal. (Newswires)

A Senior Iranian Cleric said US regional bases would not be safe if Washington does something wrong. (Newswires)


NHC said Hurricane Rosa is expected to cause flooding rains over portions of North-Western Mexico and the South-Western US. (Newswires)

US Crude Oil Exports fell to 2.139mln bpd in July (vs. 2.2mln bpd in June). (Newswires)

JBC said OPEC output rose 300k BPD to 32.9mln BPD in September. (Newswires)


US and Canada are reportedly close to a NAFTA deal ahead of the midnight deadline in Washington. (WSJ)

White House Trade Advisor Navarro said the NAFTA deal due tonight will be bilateral or trilateral and he added there are several sticking points on NAFTA. (Fox)

Mexico President Elect AMLO said he will insist NAFTA remains a trilateral deal; he added that there is still time to reach a trilateral deal. In related news, the Mexican senate is planning to time its NAFTA vote to coincide with the US’s vote. (Newswires)

The Canadia Foreign Minister is to address the UN on Monday. (Newswires)

US House has voted to pass legislation extending Trump tax cuts. (Newswires)


Nvidia (NVDA) was a top mover on the day following a PT hike at Evercore, which cited potential value growth. Marathon Oil (MRO) & Hess (HES) were also top movers following PT increases at Piper Jaffray. Scana (SCG) was upgraded at UBS on a constructive regulatory environment. CarMax (KMX) saw gains after an upgrade at Baird, as well as a price target increase at Wedbush. Tesla (TSLA) nosedived following the SEC charges of securities fraud against CEO Musk. Martin Marietta (MLM) was sharply lower after it entered into the tenth amendment for a credit and security agreement. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) had a mid-session slump on the back of competitor Intel’s (INTC) announcement of increased focus on chips; S&P Global (SPGI) and Moody’s (MCO) also made losses. Twitter (TWTR) fell in sympathy with Facebook (FB) after reports of a hack at the latter.

SPX 0.00% at 2914, NDX -0.03% at 7628, DJI +0.07% at 26458. SECTORS: Energy -0.28%, Materials -0.65%, Industrials -0.05%, Cons Discretionary -0.13%, Cons Staples +0.22%, Healthcare +0.33%, Financials -1.06%, Tech +0.43%, Telecoms -0.39%, Utilities +1.51%

Once again, Bunds were dictating the price action of Treasuries through European trade, with German debt catching a bid as Italian debt was sold; Bunds were also aided by somewhat disappointing data on the inflation front. A mixed/weak set of 0830am EST data helped Treasuries find highs, though highs could not be sustained with equities firming/toying with neutral levels. Reported position squaring was also playing a role in the afternoon, with traders squaring books ahead of month/quarter end. Major curves spreads were modestly wider, except for the 2s5s, which narrowed a touch. * US T-NOTE FUTURES (Z8) SETTLED 1 TICK HIGHER AT 118-25