Daily FX Wrap: majors wind down for Fed on Wed, but some argy-bargy for the Peso


Not much additional movement in USD parings, or the DXY that is keeping its head above 94.000, marginally, but the EUR has crept past the GBP at the front of the major pack to revisit resistance ahead of 1.1800, like the 1.1780 Fib. With Cable sticky around 1.3150 in comparison, Eur/Gbp is inching back over 0.8950, while Eur/SEK is now probing 10.3600+ levels after the Crown initially held firm on confirmation of Swedish PM Lofven losing a vote of confidence. Elsewhere, the NZD remains a relative performer ahead of NZ trade data tonight and the RBNZ policy meeting on Wednesday, with the OCR expected to be maintained at 1.75%, but some prospect of more upbeat forward guidance given considerably stronger than forecast growth in Q2 – full preview available via the Research Suite.


All narrowly mixed vs the Greenback and arguably rotating in tighter concentric circles as the countdown to tomorrow’s FOMC begins in earnest – preview accessible through headline feed or direct for download on the Research suite, but in short another ¼ point hike is all but priced in vs multiple variables via the SEP, policy statement and Fed chair Powell’s presser/Q&A. Aud/Usd is hovering just above 0.7250 awaiting more US-China trade developments and the Loonie is pivoting 1.2950 following latest NAFTA updates via US Trade Advisor Navarro (little issues preventing an accord with Canada, vote on final deal likely after November), USTR Lighthizer (claiming big differences and no concessions from Canada) and Canadian PM Trudeau (potential to build on US-Mexican agreement, but aware of country’s needs and will work to those ends). Conversely, the Franc and Jpy are both still lagging and softer vs the Usd on relative SNB/BoJ vs Fed policy dynamics, with the former 2 firmly in easing mode, but latter all set to continue its normalisation process as noted above. Usd/Chf circling 0.9650 and Usd/Jpy eyeing 113.00 resistance/supply.


Another rise in Brent prices to just over $82/brl has helped the Rub maintain its recovery momentum (towards 65.5200 at best), but the Ars has been hit hard along with other Argentine assets following the resignation of Central Bank Chief Caputo. In fact, the Peso open was delayed due to a lack of Usd supply and the pair subsequently gapped up over 4.5% to 39.0000+. Elsewhere, the Czk is also awaiting a policy verdict and anticipated 25 bp tightening by the CNB on Wednesday.