February’s option expiration day has been down more often than not over the past 25 years with an average loss of 0.25% for S&P 500. Despite a bumpy finish, expiration week as a whole has fared better, but nets an average gain of just 0.39% on the S&P 500 since 1994 with 16 of 25 winning weeks. More recently, S&P 500 has advanced in eleven of the last thirteen options expiration weeks. The week after, has been down 13 of the last 25 years. DJIA and NASDAQ have similar patterns over the same timeframe.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
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