Mid-day look at gold, crude and Treasuries

Gold Apr Contract ( jUN ,  ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing overnight only resolved down under $1325.50 per ounce into and through Thursday morning. The gap back to Monday’s 1320.50 close was filled, so closing under it would help to confirm the reversal down is intact. Otherwise, closing back above 1325.50 would at least undermine the reversal attempt.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
A blip-up in reaction to Thursday’s ECB policy statement pierced 1.2435 resistance up to 1.2450 before reversing down sharply through the 1.2345 sell signal to attack 1.2305. A second consecutive lower close would confirm the bounce had been reversed down to target fresh lows.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight strength was retraced back under 16.55, but only to resume testing 16.50 whose break would signal new lows in-play, confirmed under 16.40.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s bounce touched parallel downtrending resistance that intersected at 144-00, reacting down to 143-16 which is now a sell signal in addition to 142-18. Not reversing down on Friday’s Employment Situation report would have room for noise up to 144-08, while still be vulnerable to resolving down sharply into a new downleg.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s late reaction up had held the intraday drop’s $61.35 per barrel bounce limit before ranging flat-to-lower overnight. Fresh lows Thursday morning tested 60.10, with a second consecutive lower close confirming Wednesday’s breakout under 62.25.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength wasn’t any likelier or more vulnerable to reacting down. Filling gaps below, if not also probing a fresh low, would help to form a more durable bottom. Reacting down from Tuesday and Wednesday’s confirmed breakout does suggest the position of strength will be used for launching a temporary dip to neutralize the attractions below.

About the Author

Rod David develops analytical techniques that are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He primarily analyzes S&Ps, generating several round-turn candidates daily. Rod publishes “Trading Plan” and more each session at the blog http://IfThenSignals.com.