Your Last Minute Jobs Preview: How The Market Will React To Wages

While we already did an extended payroll preview (here), below we provide a last minute summary of what Wall Street firms expect the (less important) payrolls number – consensus exp. at 205K – to be, courtesy of Anthony Barton:

  • BNP 225K
  • JPM 225K
  • Goldman 210K
  • Jefferies 210K
  • Morgan Stanley 210K
  • Nomura 210K
  • Wells Fargo 210K
  • Credit Suisse 205K
  • Consensus 205K
  • Scotia 200K
  • BMO 200K
  • Barclays 200K
  • UBS 199K
  • RBC 190K
  • Citi 185K
  • Daiwa 185K
  • Deutsche 185K
  • HSBC 185K
  • SocGen 180K
  • TD 175K
  • Merrill Lynch 160K

And here is Bloomberg showing that when it comes to the market reaction, it’s all about the wage data; specifically, average hourly earnings data “drove or helped drive market reaction to five of past six monthly U.S. employment reports” (the NFP numbers below are as reported at initial release, not as subsequently revised).

January data released Feb. 2: NFP rose 200k vs 180k est.

  • Treasuries fell after report also showed highest y/y increase in average hourly earnings since 2009; 10Y yield closed higher by 5.2bp following an 8.5bp increase the previous day, which had no clear catalyst
  • S&P 500 fell 2.1%, its biggest drop in 16 months, and slid another 6.6% over the next four days

December data released Jan. 5: NFP rose 148k vs 190k est.

  • Treasuries rallied, with 10Y yield falling as much as 2bp to session low in the minute after the data; gains erased amid expectations for heavy corporate issuance the following week
  • Avg hourly earnings rose 0.3%, in line with forecast
  • S&P 500 rose 0.7% to record high

November data released Dec. 8: NFP rose 228k vs 195k est.

  • 5s30s curve steepened by more than 3bp (5Y yield declined, 30Y rose) as average hourly earnings rose less than forecast, however move was mostly erased by end of day
  • S&P 500 rose 0.6%

October data released Nov. 3: NFP rose 261k vs 313k est.

  • USTs rallied in reaction to flat average hourly earnings vs est. for 0.2% increase; y/y rate fell to 2.4%, lowest in more than a year; gains were temporarily erased, aided by unexpected increase in ISM Non-Manufacturing to highest level since 2005
  • 10Y yield closed lower by 1.3bp; 5s30s flattened to new multi-year low and volatility slumped
  • S&P 500 rose 0.3% to record high

September data released Oct. 6: NFP fell 33k vs est. for 80k increase; data reflected disruptions caused by hurricanes Harvey and Irma

  • USTs fell in reaction to 0.5% average hourly earnings increase (vs 0.3% est.), biggest since 2008. 10Y yield rose as much as 5.2bp to 2.40%, highest since May; it retreated from session high as stocks fell on report North Korea planned missile test and closed higher by 1.1bp
  • S&P 500 fell 0.1%

August data released Sept. 1: NFP rose 156k vs 180k est.

  • USTs rose as average hourly earnings also increased less than forecast and unemployment rate ticked higher, but failed to hold advance and closed lower following bigger-than-forecast increase in ISM Manufacturing to highest level in six years; 10Y yield closed higher by 4.9bp at 2.166% after trading at YTD low 2.084% earlier in week
  • S&P 500 rose 0.2%

(Source: Bloomberg)

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Finally, remember, it’s not what they say – with plans to raise compensation at all time highs – but what they do, that wage inflation has barely budged from the post-crisis low.