Summary: Jobs, Job and no more jobs.. $SPX [chart]

Good morning. 

 

Hopefully this is being delivered around 8am.  If you have been and are positioned for the downside congratulations.

 

Two reports this morning that will drive the markets.  The 8:30am jobs report, which unless it is really shocking should be baked in and at 10am we get new factory orders.  I would expect little futures movement going in to the jobs number unless Europe panics.  Currently as I author this report we are just about flat to slightly up.  Overnight Europe and Italy reported their unemployment numbers which were just barely better then expectations with Italy now at a 8.7% unemployment rate and Europe overall at a 10% unemployment rate.  Each about .10% better than expectations. Better is better.

 

8:30 will be our turn.

 

Quote of the day:
If everything seems under control, you’re not going fast enough – Mario Andretti

 

Chart

Score

 Day-1

Change

40 DPI

-6

-4

-2

52 WNH

-0

-0

0

10 DHL

-6

0

-6

Total

-12

-4

-8

We lost what little we gained on breadth yesterday even though the price action was better. I really do not have anything interesting to say about the breadth data.  It is poor.  The only light was a weird divergence on the 52 week new highs which put in mixed results and with the NYSE actually putting in a buy signal.  We might want to confirm that today. 

 

But today will be about news and not about technicals.

 

$SPX chart:

 

With yet another lower low yesterday we are now about 10.5% off from the 1130 pivot high now 9 days ago.  The inability to bounce or show and interest in going higher is just more indication of upside weakness and downside strength.

 

The goal line for the bears now sits at 1011 and below that is the 1000 support level.  All my technical work and the head and shoulders data puts us at 850 to 900 as the eventual possible bottom, but we should get some type of rally in between.

 

If that rally were to happen today watch to see if we can break through 1030 and hold.   If we can rally above 1030 then 1040 would be the next area to watch.  Above 1040 is 1049 which is the bulls goal line. A close above there might get us some movement.

 

If we can string together a multiday rally I have 1071 (50%) as the possible pivot to more downside action.   The breadth data will let us know when any rally begins to exhaust.

 

image

 

Those are the values today.  Be careful and watch for the reaction to the 8:30am news.  If 1011 gets tested and holds we could rally up to 1040 or even 1049.  If the bad news bears continue to reign and 1011 fails look toward 1000 and then 900 ugh..

 

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