Tom’s TTT Buy signal fires.. look for a 3-5% bounce over the nest five days $study

TTT Buy Signal issued on the market Close yesterday..

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Tom’s TTT Buy Signal has a fantastic record of calling a return to mean 3 to 5% counter trend rally in a 5 day window.  It fires only a few times per year.  This is the 3rd firing.  The 1st one failed to achieve the goal, the second on was good and this is our 3rd this year and we are feeling pretty confident.  Over time this signal has a greater than 80% success rate.

 

For each of the 5 days we will cycle the various indexes through to see how they fair on the buy signal.  Our prediction is that the Q’s and the Russell (IWM) will do the best. 

 

Here is the Q’s marked:

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Around the Globe

    Asia – CLOSED

  • Shanghai (China) -1.44%
  • Hang Seng (Hong Kong) -1.30%
  • Nikkei (Japan)-2.99%

Europe as of 7:30am EDT

  • DAX (Germany) +0.33%
  • FTSE (UK) -0.47%

Today’s Economic News:

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Quote of the day:
I myself am made entirely of flaws, stitched together with good intentions. – Augusten Burroughs

 

Current Allocations from our room:

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Performance Month to Date from our room:

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Current Breadth Readings:

 

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The trenders remind us to not trust rallies.  We tried unsuccessfully to front run them for two days and now we are 20+ points down.

 

ES SP500 Futures Comments:

 

When our Zweig went down and under the 40 we had to make a decision on deep deep or shallow.  We thought based on the October surprise that this market still had some interest that would prevent this 3 day wandering so we tried to outsmart and lead our indicators, which sometimes works well, this time it didn’t. 

 

We had 1320 for a bottom target on Tuesday and Wednesday and then revised that when the market refused to move to 1280.  So we were wrong on the 1320 and we might be proven wrong on the 1280, at least for now.

 

We will focus on our day trading until the market flags us differently, suspecting that a super bounce is just around the corner any day. Let’s get OPEX Friday and post-Opex Monday open out of the way first.

 

Today we are interested in the Globex overnight lows for a possible long entry and a target of 1325 and 1340 on the short or selling side.

 

We are waiting for a break in the afternoon selling pattern before we start to call for bounces again.

 

We do think that if you are long there is some relief in the next few days.

 

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US Dollar DX Futures Comments:

The Dollar is struggling the last couple of days with some nice selling tales on the top.  We want to see today’s close before thinking short. image

 

TLT Twenty Year Bond ETF Comments:

Wow, I just noticed the ETF was twisted on this title for the last six months!  No Comments?  How come I only hear from you when I am wrong about a call, or even worse when you are right about a call? Smile

 

Boy, if you can handle a 3 point drag up in the TLT this is a good bar to short. We are up near historic highs.  At some point this bond bubble with just not hold once the grass on the other side looks greener (equities).  The boat is crowded now.

 

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