Trump Tariff Talk Causes An S&P ‘Dump & Pump’

Index Futures Net Changes and Settlements:

Contract Settlement Net Change +/-%
S&P 500 (ESH18:CME) 2690.25 +12.00 +0.44%
Dow Jones (YMH18:CBT) 24,535 -85 -0.34%
Nasdaq 100 (NQH18:CME) 6804.75 +44.00 +0.64%
Russell 2000 (RTYH:CME) 1530.40 +25.00 +1.63%

Foreign Markets, Fair Value and Volume:

  • In Asia 9 out of 11 markets closed lower: Shanghai Comp +0.09%, Hang Seng -2.28%, Nikkei -0.66%
  • In Europe 10 out of 12 markets are trading higher: CAC +0.17%, DAX +0.60%, FTSE +0.16%
  • Fair Value: S&P -0.50, NASDAQ +1.18, Dow -9.35
  • Total Volume: 2.1mil ESH & 1.2k SPH traded in the pit

Today’s Economic Calendar:

PMI Services Index 9:45 AM ET, ISM Non-Mfg Index 10:00 AM ET, TD Ameritrade IMX 12:30 PM ET, and Randal Quarles Speaks 1:15 PM ET.

S&P 500 Futures: Fridays #ES Short Squeeze And The Late Friday RIP

Thursday night, the S&P 500 futures traded down to 2652.75 on Globex, down 0.94%, with 375,000 contracts traded, and the first print Friday’s 8:30 bell came in at 2657.00. The ES immediately jumped up to 2663.75, and then pulled back to an early low at 2646.75. There was some ‘back and fill’ going on from the 2649.00 to the 2656 level, followed by a pop up to a new daily high at 2667.00.

After another pullback down to the 2653 level, the ES made a series of new highs up to 2679.25, pulled back down to 2669.50, and at 12:00 traded up to 2685.50, 38.75 handles off the low of the day. Once the new high was in, the ES traded back down under the vwap to 2663.75, 21.75 handles off the high. The next move was a rally back up to 2681 area.

As the MiM went from $90 million to buy to $300 million to buy, the futures pulled back down to 2671.50, and then started to rally up to 2783.25. Again, the ES pulled back down to 2669.50, and then started trading back up to new highs at 2691.00, as the MiM went to over $800 million to buy. After a small pullback the futures traded up to another new high at 2696.00. On the 3:00 cash close the ES traded 2689.75, and then went on to settle at 2689.25 on the 3:15 futures close.

Friday showed a certain amount of resilience. The ES was weak early in the day, but once it started moving higher, there was no stopping it. Who would have thought the ES was going to rally 47 handles from its early low? No one, but that’s how this is working now. Like I have said, you have to widen levels / ranges out.

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