Global Macro Technical Thoughts

Global Macro Technical Thoughts, we focus on finding the early entry / exit levels 

Sometimes the signal is given too early – but with keeping a tight stop, the risk/reward ratio is in balance

Note: Levels are triggered when hit either Intraday or end of day, unless differently indicated

 

S&P / Nasdaq / Russell 2000 / Dow Jones

While the markets gave sell signals and reached short term downside targets, they bounced significantly

Here is what we wrote on Tuesday – which our system still tells us:

“However, this doesn’t change our outlook and forecast, and we still expect to see  the Indices correct in the next few weeks

We do not want to be long the Indices and Equities at these levels, and the focus remains on being short Indices and Equities and long Bonds and Gold

Only the following closes above will change our outlook – short term:

S&P 3269, Nasdaq 8936, Russell 1694 and Dow Jones 29044’

 

The Geopolitical unrest is not settled – although the media makes it sound that it is

 

VIX (Cash)

VIX is still trading above 12.10

Here, too, there is no change

We saw another bounce and it is still on a buy signal

 

TSX – no Change

 

DAX / FTSE / AEX (Europe)

No change

Earlier this week, all three Indices gave a sell signal and bounced

However, its forecast is unchanged and the pullback is still likely

 

Gold (FEB)

It was a wise move to take some profit off the table

Just as a recap:

The last buy signal to long Gold was given around 1468

On January 2 GMTT gave an upside target of 1596 and thereafter a move towards 1640

After the escalation in the Middle East, Gold came close to that target with a high of 1612 before it plummeted down

Its sell stop was elected but it did not cancel its buy signal

Anther bounce is likely as long as there is no close below 1523

 

Silver (MAR)

Silver needs to hold above 17.85 to stay on a buy signal

 

Platinum (APR)

Platinum corrected together with the other metals

While it triggered its protective sell stop, the buy signal continues as long as there is no close below 934

 

Copper (MAR)
Copper has a mind of its own but is now again close to giving a buy signal which will be confirmed on a close above 2.85

 

Crude (FEB)

Crude gave a sell signal at 62.10 and the buy stop is at break even

 

Nat Gas (FEB)

A small bounce in Nat Gas but we only want to be long on a close above 2.22

 

US Bonds (MAR)

After its nice bounce we saw a little pullback in Bonds

However, its forecast for higher prices is unchanged

Therefore, we want to give it a little more time – until Monday – to see if it can bounce again

If there is a change in this outlook an intraday will be sent out

 

Bunds (MAR)

Bunds can still reach 174.40 as long as there is no close below 169.90

 

Currencies – still trading in a range and overall no change in its outlook

The same applies for the Soft Commodities

 

 

 © Global Macro Technical Thoughts – January 9, 2020 Thursday

 

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There is a risk of loss in trading stocks, commodity futures, options contracts, and forex.

This risk can be substantial and therefore investors should carefully consider their financial suitability prior to trading.

Investors must fully understand the risks involved and must assume the responsibility for the results.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.