Global Macro Technical Thoughts

Global Macro Technical Thoughts, we focus on finding the early entry / exit levels 

Sometimes the signal is given too early – but with keeping a tight stop, the risk/reward ratio is in balance

Note: Levels are triggered when hit either Intraday or end of day, unless differently indicated

 

Green print= short term bullish or positive

Red print = short term bearish or negative

Black is sideways

 

We are sending a short update as investors are digesting the latest news

Our forecast was correct and the geopolitical unrest has helped moving the markets into the expected direction

Yesterday’s continued rally in equities is history, and the focus continues on lower Indices and equities, and higher gold and Bond prices

Below is a summary of the levels given previously which is needed to get a greenlight to hit the sell button

 

S&P / Nasdaq / Russell 2000 / Dow Jones / TSX / DAX / FTSE 100 / AEX

S&P 3223, Nasdaq 8688, Russell 1663, Dow Jones 28527, TSX 17047, DAX 13229, FTSE 5792 and AEX 608

 

VIX (Cash)

Once again, the VIX held above 11.60 (its magical level) and this morning the VIC reached its next upside target of 16.05

We are now looking for a move towards 20.70

 

Gold (FEB)

Gold reached 1435 and its next upside target of 1564 is not far off

Raise its protective sell stop to 1514

 

Silver (MAR)
Silver reached 18.40 and we can now see a move towards 18.65 followed by 19.35

Raise its protective sell stop to 17.85

 

Copper (MAR)

Copper continues on a sell signal and a close below 2.76 confirms the move towards 2.56

Lower the buy stop to 2.83

 

Platinum (APR)
Please note that Platinum rolled over to April contract

Our target of 1000 is reached and we got a next target of 1054

Raise its sell stop to 963

 

Crude (FEB)

Crude bounced due to geopolitical unrest

For now, we are not chasing the bounce

A close below 62.10 gives a sell signal

 

Nat Gas (FEB)

Nat Gas corrected a little further – but here, too, the forecast is unchanged and a close above 2.15 gives a buy signal

 

US Bonds (MAR)

As expected, US Bonds and TLT bounced and the forecast is unchanged

 

Bunds (MAR)

Bunds continue on a buy signal and give an upside target of 174.40

 

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index needs to stay below 97.55 to continue its sell signal

It continues on a sell signal with a tight buy stop at 97.55

 

Euro (EUR/USD)

The Euro needs to stay above 111.00 to continue its buy signal

 

Australian Dollar (AUD/USD)

The Aussie needs to stay above 68.70 to continue its buy signal

 

Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)

The Canadian Dollar can still reach 128.60 as long as there is no close above 131.20

 

Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)

USD/JPY reached its next downside target of 107.90

We can now see the move towards 105.90

Lower its buy stop to 109.10

 

Euro Yen (EUR/JPY)

The Euro Yen needs to stay above 120.65 to continue its buy signal

 

British Pound (GBP/USD)

The Pound needs to stay above 129.20 to continue its buy signal

 

Israeli Shekel (USD/ILS)

The Shekel continues on a sell signal as long as there is no good close above 348

 

Brazil Real (USD/BRL)

USD/BRL can still reach 390 as long as there is no close above 411

 

Chinese Yuan (USD/CNY)

USD/CNY continues on a sell signal and its next downside target of 693 is getting closer

Keep its buy stop at 701

 

Bitcoin

Bitcoin still needs to trade above 7620 to give a buy signal