Global Macro Thoughts

Global Macro Technical Thoughts, we focus on finding the early entry / exit levels 

Sometimes the signal is given too early – but with keeping a tight stop, the risk/reward ratio is in balance

Note: Levels are triggered when hit either Intraday or end of day, unless differently indicated

 

Green print= short term bullish or positive

Red print = short term bearish or negative

Black is sideways

 

S&P / Nasdaq / Russell 2000 / Dow Jones

The Indices failed to confirm a sell signal

While they moved below the given signals, they closed above them

However, this doesn’t change our outlook and forecast, and we still expect to see  the Indices correct in the next few weeks

We do not want to be long the Indices and Equities at these levels, and the focus remains on being short Indices and Equities and long Bonds and Gold

Only the following closes above will change our outlook – short term:

S&P 3269, Nasdaq 8936, Russell 1694 and Dow Jones 29044

 

VIX (Cash)

The VIX reached its next upside target of 16.05

We still have higher targets, and this forecast remains valid as long as there is no close below 12.10

 

TSX (Canada)

The TSX cancels its outlook for a pullback on a close above 17302

 

DAX / FTSE 100 / AEX (Europe)

These European Indices reached their levels needed to elect a sell signal, but closed end of day above their levels

As explained above there is no change in its forecast / outlook and only the following closes above will change that – short term:

DAX 13573, FTSE 7711 and AEX 618

 

Gold (FEB)
Gold traded at a six year high and we expect the up-move to continue

However, as we have had a nice run in Gold from its last buy signal given at around 1468, it is time to take some profit off the table

So far, the high was 1588 close to its next upside target of 1596

Raise its protective sell stop to 1552

 

Silver (MAR)

Silver reached 18.40, continues on a buy signal and we raise its protective sell stop to 17.95

 

Platinum (APR)

Platinum reached 1000 as expected, continues on a buy signal and we raise its protective sell stop to 974

A close above 1007 is needed to confirm its next upside target of 1054

 

Copper (MAR)
Copper failed three times in the last few trading days to make a good close below 2.76

A close above 2.82 cancels our outlook for the move towards 2.56 – short term

 

Crude (FEB)

Crude needs a close below 62.10 to give a sell signal

As mentioned in the last Thoughts, we are not chasing its current buy signal

 

Nat Gas (FEB)

Nat Gas still needs a close above 2.15 to give a buy signal but a close above 2.22 is needed to confirm the move towards 3.04

 

US Bonds (MAR)

We saw a nice bounce in US Bond prices and TLT off their last low

We expect to see more of this bounce and the buy signal continues

 

Bunds (MAR)

Bunds gave a buy signal and is moving towards its upside target of 174.40

 

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index continues on a sell signal as long as there is no close above 97.55  

 

Euro (EUR/USD)

The Euro continues on a buy signal as long as there is no close below 111.00

 

Australian Dollar (AUD/USD)

The Aussie continues on a buy signal as long as there is no close below 68.70  

 

Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)

USD/CAD continues on a sell signal as long as there is no close above 131.20

 

Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)

USD/JPY continues on a sell signal as long as there is no close above 109.10

 

Euro Yen (EUR/JPY)

The Euro Yen continues on a buy signal as long as there is no good close below 120.65

 

British Pound (GBP/USD)

GBP/USD continues on a buy signal as long as there is no close below 129.20

 

Israeli Shekel (USD/ILS)

USD/ILS continues on a sell signal as long as there is no good close above 348

 

Brazil Real (USD/BRL)

USD/BRL continues on a sell signal as long as there is no close above 411

 

Chinese Yuan (USD/CNY)

USD/CNY continues on a sell signal from 708 and reached this morning its next downside target of 693

We can now see a move towards 687 but we lower its protective buy stop to 698

 

Bitcoin

Bitcoin gave a buy signal above 7620 and its suggested sell stop is 7053

First upside target 8415 followed by 10912

 

Wheat (MAR)

Wheat is near its projected inflection point and a close below 543 gives a sell signal

 

Soybeans (JAN)

Soybeans give are close to giving a sell signal below 933

reached its next upside target of 957 and here the suggestion is to raise its protective sell stop to 933

 

Corn (MAR)

Corn still needs a close below 381 to give a sell signal

 

Coffee (MAR)

Coffee is moving towards its next downside target of  119.60, and continues on a sell signal as long as there is no good close above 127.80

 

Sugar (MAR)

Sugar continues on a buy signal as long as there is no good close below 13.10

 

Cocoa (MAR)

Cocoa continues on a sell signal and its next downside target is still 2349 came close to its downside target of 2349

So far the low was 2388

Lower its protective buy stop to 2554

 

 

© Global Macro Technical Thoughts – January 7, 2020 Tuesday

 

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Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.