Global Macro

Green print= short term bullish or positive

Red print = short term bearish or negative

Black is sideways

 

Good morning, let us start with an apology as it seems now that our Thoughts from Sunday late afternoon was not distributed

There is no point now to resend it and below you will find the latest Thoughts as they stand now

 

Tomorrow we are halfway into JAN and it’s time to take a quick look how we have done so far

The Indices did slide but managed to recover and moved higher

However, they did not yet give a good confirmation of yet another leg higher

So for now we stand on the side-lines and its still likely to see a pullback

The scenario is two sides, since a good close above these levels cancel the forecast given on Jan 1, 2020 – short term

Therefore we will give both levels which are the point of focus to decide on its direction:

S&P 3301 – 3259

Nasdaq 9101 – 8934

Russell 1694 – 1648

Dow Jones 29173 – 28769

 

VIX (Cash)

Based on its inflection point the expectation is to see another spike in the VIX

However, since it not in sync with the indices, we are cautious and suggest keeping a tight sell stop at 11.90

 

TSX (Canada)

The Canadian Index TSX is still on a buy signal

A close above 17309 generates higher targets, while a close below 17161 is needed to change direction

 

DAX / FTSE 100 / AEX (Europe)

The European Indexes covered in these Thoughts are all trying to break out

So far, they bounced to new highs

Here as well The direction isn’t clear and therefore we have two levels

These levels are key to decide on its direction

DAX 13584 – 13389

FTSE 7701 – 7566

AEX 619 – 604

 

Gold (APR)

After Gold reached its inflection point it corrected from its high at 1613 to 1537 in just a couple of trading days

However, only a close below 1523 cancels its buy signal

A close below confirms a more significant down-move – and invites to short Gold

For now we are standing on the side-lines after we exited the last long trade from 1468 at around 1596

 

Silver (MAR)

Silver gave a sell signal below 17.85 and its suggested buy stop is 18.05

Downside target 16.25

 

Copper (MAR)

Copper gave a buy signal above 2.85 and its suggested sell stop is 2.82

First upside target 2.89

 

Platinum (APR)

Platinum has risen in the month of January 17 times in the last 20 years

This year, we also saw a big move up from late December and the high so far was 1001

We still have a next upside target of 1054 and its suggested sell stop is now at 949

 

Crude (FEB)

Our outlook for Crude was not to chase its buy signal – but to wait for a sell signal to go short

Although it doesn’t line up with its inflection point Crude elected its sell signal below 62.10

First downside target of 57.40 is close and its next projected downside target is 52.80

Lower its buy stop to 59.35

 

Nat Gas (FEB)

Nat Gas gave a buy signal above 2.21 with a first short term upside target of 2.27 followed by 2.34

Based on our overall analysis we find it too risky to be either long or short

However, for traders who  are long Nat Gas the suggested sell stop is 2.17

 

US Bonds (MAR)

The trading range continues and only the following closes below cancel the buy signal:

US 30 Year 155.22, US 10 Year 127.18 and TLT 135.20

 

Bunds (MAR)

Bunds can still reach 174.40 as long as there is no good close below 170

 

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index continues on a sell signal as long as there is no close above 97.55  

 

Euro (EUR/USD)

The Euro continues on a buy signal as long as there is no close below 111.00

 

Australian Dollar (AUD/USD)

The Aussie continues on a buy signal as long as there is no close below 68.70  

 

Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)

USD/CAD continues on a sell signal as long as there is no close above 131.20

 

Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)

USD/JPY gave a short term buy signal above 109.10 with a sell stop at 109.35

 

Euro Yen (EUR/JPY)

The Euro Yen continues on a buy signal as long as there is no good close below 120.65

 

British Pound (GBP/USD)

GBP/USD is close to giving a sell signal below 129.20

 

Israeli Shekel (USD/ILS)

USD/ILS continues on a sell signal as long as there is no good close above 348

 

Brazil Real (USD/BRL)

USD/BRL gave a short term buy signal above 411 with a suggested sell stop at 407

 

Chinese Yuan (USD/CNY)

USD/CNY continues on a sell signal from 708 and reached 687

We lower its protective buy stop to 694

 

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Bitcoin gave a buy signal above 7620 and reached its first upside target of 8415

We can now see the move towards 10912 but suggest to raise its sell stop to7620

 

Wheat (MAR)

Wheat is near its projected inflection point but still needs a close below 543 to give a sell signal

 

Soybeans (JAN)

Soybeans still need a close below 933 to elect its sell signal

 

Corn (MAR)

Corn still needs a close below 381 to give a sell signal

 

Coffee (MAR)

Coffee continues on a sell signal from 136 and reached its next downside target of 119.60

Now looking for a move towards 112.30 followed by 108.85

Lower its protective buy stop to 119.45

 

Sugar (MAR)

Sugar continues on a buy signal from around 12.90 and we raise its protective sell stop to 13.70

Next upside target 15.40

 

Cocoa (MAR)

Cocoa elected its protective buy stop at 2554 but needs a close above 2622 to cancel its sell signal

 

 

© Global Macro Technical Thoughts – January 14, 2020 Tuesday

 

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This risk can be substantial and therefore investors should carefully consider their financial suitability prior to trading.

Investors must fully understand the risks involved and must assume the responsibility for the results.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.