Watching $ES_F 1406 for a short and $ES_F 1388 for a long $study

Around the Globe

    Asia – CLOSED

  • Shanghai (China) -1.51%
  • Hang Seng (Hong Kong) -0.27%
  • Nikkei (Japan)-0.07%

Europe as of 7:15am EDT

  • DAX (Germany) +0.40%
  • FTSE (UK) +0.03%

 

Today’s Economic News:

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Light on news.  Big news today is start of OPEX.


Quote of the day:
Conscience is what makes a boy tell his mother before his sister does. – Evan Esar

Current Breadth Readings: (click here to see all our breadth charts)

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We look at the 40 DPI today as it is giving us a challenge to the bulls .  The multi-day weakness is telling us that the broader market is not expanding in price as fast as the 40-day moving average.  That leads us to watch other price action.

 

ES SP500 Futures Comments:

Short: 1406
Long: 1388

Ranges remain tight and our buy/sell areas continue to chase the tightening.  On the upside, we think progress will remain steady but slow and our current extension is to 1406.  On the downside, we think a move to just 1388 will be met with enough buyers to hold the line.

 

We begin OPEX week August which can be challenging.  August’s OPEX Monday’s S&P 500 since 1984 has been up 21 out of 28 times, those are decent odds.  The rest of the stats look much closer to 50/50.  We will watch and see.

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US Dollar DX Futures Comments:

The trend to the downside is now defined by lower highs and we will watch for a lower low.  That is bullish on equities.  Not much in the way of intervention will be happening in August as all of Europe remains on vacation, so the market is blowing in the wind of rumors and promises.  Watch for 82 to break, then the market will be making new highs. 

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TLT Twenty Year Bond ETF Comments:

Respecting the 125 level, the bonds have bounced there.  A break of that level would be rocket fuel for another ascent.  Money is being squeezed into the markets with the bonds oscillating between 131 and 125.   I would expect that cycle to continue one more time.

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