Watching the NFP.. duh.. downside $es_f 1375 upside 1425 $study

Around the Globe

    Asia – CLOSED

  • Shanghai (China) +0.49%
  • Hang Seng (Hong Kong) -0.77%
  • Nikkei (Japan)+0.31%

Europe as of 6:40am EDT

  • DAX (Germany) -0.67%
  • FTSE (UK) -0.79%

Today’s Economic News:


China PMI was good, US Monster index was good but those PMI service numbers out of Europe were misses but offset by decent retail sales numbers out of Europe.  Focus now is at 8:30am EST in the US on the non-farm Payrolls.

Quote of the day:
We know what happens to people who stay in the middle of the road. They get run over. – Aneurin Bevan


Current Allocations from our room:


Performance Month to Date from our room:


Current Breadth Readings:



The bulls lost the McSI yesterday to neutral.  Today is dominated by the Non-farm payroll news, breadth is suggesting that this is a great bounce point.. it is all up to the jobs data though.


ES SP500 Futures Comments:


We drew our decision arrows in yesterday at 1402 are which was hit and chose the low road.  NFP today and for me impossible to predict the news and reaction thereof.  I will be watching price and TLT as usual as well as risk, ie. the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100.  Oil is selling hard this morning.


We have pulled down the buy area to 1375, not too sure if that is far enough should the jobs data be miserable.  If they are horrid, there will be some Fed type news to attempt to rescue the markets.  They are not insensitive to the calendar volatility that May can introduce, especially in an election year.


We still think a raucous rally could take place and that should extend the highs into the 1425 area.  If we do break to the downside we will re-evaluate our bullish bias, we are already based on breadth from yesterday, over the weekend.  Stay Tuned.


It is up to the news now.  Have a safe weekend all.



US Dollar DX Futures CommentsOpen-mouthed smile

The US dollar continues to run, watching the 79.50 area in here. image

TLT Twenty Year Bond EFT Comments:

TLT teased us yesterday with a horrid open, but it rallied all day long to just run short of a green close.  This will move today most like based on the NFP. image

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