Whip a dee do dah whip a dee ehy – my oh my what a wonderful play $SPX

Good morning. 

 

Helicopter Ben took us for a nice ride yesterday while we were just about neutral and watching the boring charts for a breakout in either direction (i was playing for the upside). On cue at 2pm Ben said some pretty scary things like: being in a period of “unusual uncertainty”.  How do you price that in!  Markets don’t like uncertainty and price in they did with a 2% drop in the last 2 hours of trading.  Alas, here comes the “dee-ehy” part, the world would not have any of it and we find ourselves with a gap open to the upside developing.  

 

In trading the TF I was long at the beginning of Mr. Bernanke’s testimony, got stopped out at 2:02 and reversed for a few points to the downside.. I did not have the staying power as I was expecting Mr. Bernanke to say something cheery that would sooth the markets and whip back up.  That did not happen.  After the close as the markets appeared to have settled I went long in TF overnight waking up to a nice surprise (8 TF points ) this morning.  Hence a whip-a-dee-do-dah-whip-a-dee-ehy play.

 

So premarket we are right were we were before Mr. Bernanke’s testimony.   To hold up the gap this morning the economic numbers must come in ok.. We have initial jobless claims at 8:30, Bernanke at 9:30am , housing data at 10am and natural gas at 10:30am.  So a mine field of news that perhaps will reveal some truth that will help Mr. Bernanke and the gang clear up some of that “unusual uncertainty”.


Quote of the day:
You’ve achieved success in your field when you don’t know whether what you’re doing is work or play. – Warren Beatty

 

Chart

Score

 Day-1

Change

40 DPI

-2

+6

-8

52 WNH

+2

+2

0

10 DHL

-0

-0

0

Total

0

+8

-8

 

We lost bullish breadth yesterday but all in the 40 DPI charts.  Today if the gap open holds we could strengthen the bullish scores for the high low indicators.  The 40 DPI is all about the close so if we can close today above 1090 we should be able to get ourselves back to the bullish side of neutral.  But for now stuck in the middle as the market frustrates everyone and just whips us about so you should be able to guess the score.  A weak day an we are bearish again.  A strong day we build on bullish.

 

 

$SPX chart:

 

This morning should be really interesting as there will be over 1 million people trying to short this gap open.  Come on, why wouldn’t you?  Markets are weak and full of uncertainty.. Ben Bernanke is speaking at the open… Economic numbers are going to be terrible…  It seems too obvious to me so I will sideline it this AM waiting to see.  Our must hold 1072/1073 number broke yesterday and so now we have moved the bears goal line down (yesterday was a bear’s victory) to 1065 area.   The bulls line is still 1100 with 1103 to confirm.    Prints above 1090 will score some points for the bulls, a close above 1090 would be great.  The bears goal is simple, “Squash the morning rally”, defend 1089/90 and break 1065. 

 

The lower highs marked on the charts need to end today for the bulls to claim any legitimacy.

 

Enjoy the game.

 

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